Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for November, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on October 24, 2023 was used for initial drought conditions.

The West is beginning the 2023-2024 water year with its lowest drought coverage since 2019. California and much of the Great Basin is drought-free. The updated November outlook depicts more than a 50 percent chance for above-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. Consistent with this outlook, a wet start to the month, and a wet climatology, improvement or removal is likely along and west of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington. Despite the updated November outlook favoring above-normal precipitation for the interior Pacific Northwest, the climatology is drier and broad-scale persistence is more likely on a monthly time scale. A drier climatology also supports persistence of drought across Arizona and New Mexico.

Forecast confidence for the Western Region is high.

For the High Plains region, the most widespread and intense drought remains across parts of Kansas and Nebraska. In areas of Kansas that received more than 1.5 to 2 inches of precipitation during late October, improvement is forecast. Elsewhere, November is an increasingly dry time of year and broad-scale persistence is most likely through the end of the month.

Forecast confidence for the High Plains is high.

A rapid onset and intensification of drought occurred across the Southern Great Plains, Western Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley during the late summer and early fall. During the final week of October, a strong cold front that ushered in the first freeze of the season also resulted in widespread, heavy precipitation (2 to 8 inches, locally more) across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Improvement or removal is roughly depicted where precipitation amounts exceeded 1.5 to 2 inches. It should be noted that the updated November outlook favors below-normal precipitation across Arkansas, but it is likely that the heavy precipitation during late October will result in a 1-category improvement. In areas that missed out on the heavy precipitation during late October, persistence is forecast as the updated November outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation and there are no signs of additional heavy precipitation early in the month.

Forecast confidence for the South is high.

Drought improvement or removal is forecast for areas of Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, western Kentucky, and near the Ohio River that received more than 1.5 to 2 inches of precipitation during the final week of October. It should be noted that the updated November precipitation outlook is favoring below-normal precipitation for the Ohio Valley, but the recent heavy precipitation is likely to result in improvement/removal at the beginning of the month. Since November is an increasingly dry time of year for the Upper Mississippi Valley and consistent with the updated November precipitation outlook, persistence is forecast for the remainder of the Midwest. Forecast confidence is low for this region due to the conflicting signals of recent heavy precipitation, an increased chance of below-normal precipitation for the Ohio Valley, and drier climatology for the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Forecast confidence for the Midwest is low.

Drought expanded northward and eastward to the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians during September and October. Additional development is forecast for eastern Alabama, north-central Georgia, and the western Carolinas where abnormal dryness (D0) exists in the U.S. Drought Monitor valid on October 24. Based on the cool start to November and decreasing evapotranspiration rates later in the fall, widespread development is unlikely for areas that are outside of existing D0. Although development is forecast for parts of the Southeast early in November, the duration of this short-term drought is highly uncertain as there are signs that the southern stream could become more active later in November. Beyond November, an El Nino climate pattern would eventually favor the end of this short-term drought. Moderate to extreme drought continues in the Ft Myers-Naples area of Florida where year-to-date precipitation deficits exceed 15 inches along the immediate coast. The long-term drought for this part of Florida is favored to persist through the end of November.

Forecast confidence for the Southeast is low.

Much of the Northeast remains drought-free with only small areas of drought across western parts of New York and West Virginia. Consistent with the updated November precipitation outlook, persistence is favored for those small areas of drought.

Forecast confidence for the Northeast Region is high.

Alaska is likely to remain drought-free through the end of November.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Drought expanded and intensified across Hawaii since August. Persistence is likely for the ongoing drought areas. Since model solutions indicate precipitation for Kauai during early November, development is not forecast for this island.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

During the latter half of October, northern Puerto Rico received 3 to 7 inches of rainfall. Based on this recent rainfall and the likelihood for additional beneficial precipitation through at least early November, removal is forecast for the remaining drought areas of northern Puerto Rico.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.

During late October, St Croix and St Thomas received 1.5 to 4 inches of rainfall. Based on this recent rainfall and a wet climatology during November, at least a 1-category improvement is forecast for those two islands of the U.S. Virgin Islands. St John is expected to remain drought-free.

Forecast confidence is high for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2023 at 8:30 AM EST