Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for October, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for October, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. Given the ongoing ENSO episode and the expectation for it to continue into 2024, correlations with ENSO conditions were considered. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on September 26, 2023 was used for initial drought conditions.

WEST REGION: Autumn is a time of transition in the West Region, and there are a variety of climatological changes that occur in the period. Currently, the main drought areas are located in northwestern and southeastern parts of the region. The remainder of the region is almost drought free. During October most of the West is still in its climatological dry month while the coastal Pacific Northwest starts to trend into its wet season in late October. Since all range forecasts lack wet signals, persistence is favored for the existing drought across the West region with likely drought development over currently anomalous dry areas in central-eastern Washington.

Forecast confidence in the West Region is generally moderate.

HIGH PLAINS REGION: Currently, the most severe drought is located across Kansas and Nebraska, where D2 to D4 (severe to exceptional drought) conditions are common in central and eastern parts of the region. Other areas of D1 and D2 (moderate and severe) drought cover the northern sections of North Dakota and parts of southwestern Colorado. Over the next seven days 1 to 2 inches of precipitation is expected across northeastern and southeastern portions of the region and the monthly outlook calls for above-normal precipitation for the southeastern portions of the region. 1-class improvement is favored for existing drought in these areas. For the remainder of the existing drought in the High Plains persistence is expected due to weak indications of markedly wet weather along with a dry climatology during October.

Forecast confidence in the High Plains is moderate in most of the region, and low in the southeastern region.

SOUTH REGION: During the past four weeks, drought has expanded and intensified (1 to 4 class degradation) across much of Lower Mississippi Valley, where below-normal rainfall has been exacerbated by frequent periods of intense heat. Currently, this region has the worst drought and nearly 49% of the land is covered with severe to exceptional (D2 to D4) drought. Over the next seven days, 1 to 4 inches heavy precipitation is expected across much of Texas and adjacent Oklahoma along with favored above-normal precipitation over most of this area in the monthly outlook, drought improvement/removal is favored for the area. Given lack of wet signals in all range forecasts for October and expected above-normal temperatures coupled with one of the climatological driest months of a year, persistence is favored for the existing drought in the western and eastern portions of the region with likely development over northeastern Mississippi and much of Tennessee.

Forecast confidence in the South Region is moderate to high.

MIDWEST REGION: Currently this region has some of the largest coverage of moderate to exceptional (D1 to D4) drought. During the past four weeks, widespread drought expansion and development (1-2 class degradation) occurred across much of the southeastern Midwest due to episodes of extreme heat and dryness across the region. Periods of heavy rainfall also reversed the trend of drought development across much of Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota. Over the next seven days, heavy precipitation is forecast across the northern portion of Minnesota. 1-class improvement is expected for that area. Drought persistence is favored for the remainder of the Midwest due to dry and lacking precipitation signals with forecast above-normal temperatures for October.

Forecast confidence in the Midwest Region is moderate.

SOUTHEAST REGION: Currently, most of the Southeast is free of drought with the worst conditions (D1 to D3; moderate to extreme drought) covering part of southern Alabama, the western Florida Peninsula and northern Virginia. Elsewhere, only small, isolated patches of moderate drought exist in western Virginia, the Carolinas, and northeastern Alabama and adjacent Georgia. Given lack of wet signals in the precipitation forecasts and likely above-normal temperatures for the coming October, together with a dry climatology, persistence is favored for the existing drought in the region with potential expansion into the rest of Alabama and adjacent Georgia, while improvement/removal is likely for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, with the potential for tropical moisture late in the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Forecast confidence for the Southeast Region is moderate.

NORTHEAST REGION: Over the past 4 weeks, beneficial rainfall along the coastal Mid-Atlantic has brought drought relief in these areas. Currently, only a few small and isolated patches of moderate drought exist in far western New York, West Virginia and adjacent Maryland. For the coming October, the CPC monthly outlooks favor below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for the region, drought persistence is expected for the Northeast region.

Forecast confidence in the Northeast Region is moderate.

ALASKA: Alaska is drought free currently and is likely to continue to remain drought free as the region enters the cold season of the year and October monthly outlooks call for above-normal precipitation across the state.

Forecast confidence in Alaska is high.

HAWAII: Drought has been expanding in Hawaii recently, and this trend is expected to continue across the entirety of the Hawaiian Islands due to the October monthly outlooks calling for below-normal precipitation across the state.

Forecast confidence in Hawaii is moderate to high.

PUERTO RICO: Currently, there are two moderate drought areas in northern Puerto Rico. Drought removal is likely due to potential rainfall by tropical systems in addition to the island remaining in its rainy season.

Forecast confidence in Puerto Rico is low.

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: Drought has been a frequent occurrence for the past few years in the Virgin Islands, and as of late September, severe drought (D2) is designated for St John and exceptional drought (D4) for St Croix and St Thomas. Drought improvement/removal is likely as the potential looms for tropical systems to bring beneficial rainfall, and October is a wet time of year.

Forecast confidence in the Virgin Islands is low.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT