Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for March, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts, dynamical model output, March climatology, and initial conditions such as soil moisture and snowpack. The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on February 21, was used for initial drought conditions. 

Drought improvement or removal is most likely across parts of California and the Great Basin by the end of March, based on above-normal precipitation for the water-year-to-date (WYTD) from October 1, 2022 to February 27, 2023 along with snow water equivalent (SWE) of more than 150 percent of normal. 7-day precipitation amounts, from February 21 to 27, exceeded more than 2 inches, liquid equivalent, acoss much of California. Below-normal temperatures with periods of beneficial precipitation are likely to continue for the improvement/removal areas through at least mid-March which should help to maintain or enhance the above-normal SWE. In addition, California reservoir levels have increased this winter. As of February 28, the following California reservoirs are above their historical average: Oroville, New Bullards Bar, Folsom, Comanche, McClure, Pine Flat, and Cachuma. However, Trinity reservoir in northern California is at 48 percent of its historical average. It should be noted that it will take more than one wet winter to significantly replenish Lake Mead and Lake Powell which are critical for water supplies across southern California. The wet winter also supported a small area of removal across extreme southern Arizona. A drier February and 36-month SPIs justified going with broad-scale persistence for remaining drought areas of Oregon and much of Idaho. Although above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures are favored across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies during March, ongoing precipitation deficits for the WYTD supports broad-scale persistence of long-term drought for these areas. 

Forecast confidence for the Western Region is moderate. 
 
Despite the March outlook depicting elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation across the northern Great Plains, broad-scale persistence of long-term drought is the most likely outcome for much of this region since March is a relatively dry month of the year. However, due to above-normal precipitation during February, drought removal is favored for southeast North Dakota and eastern South Dakota. A relatively dry climatology also supports broad-scale drought persistence across the central Great Plains. The widespread precipitation (0.5 to 1 inch, liquid equivalent) across South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, and much of Kansas during the final week of February lowers forecast confidence for persistence heading into March.  

Forecast confidence is low for the High Plains Region.

Since late January, a 1 to 2-category degradation in Dx categories was made to much of southern and western Texas. Based on increasing 90-day precipitation deficits, declining soil moisture, and a dry start to March, development is forecast for parts of south-central Texas along with areas closer to the Texas Gulf Coast. Conversely, above-normal precipitation during February coupled with additional precipitation forecast through early March supports improvement or removal for east-central Oklahoma. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region. 

A series of winter storms resulted in above-normal precipitation across much of the Midwest during February. A broad 1-category improvement in Dx categories was made to this region since late January. The most likely areas to see additional drought improvement or removal include southern Minnesota and parts of Iowa where February precipitation averaged more than 200 percent of normal and the March outlook calls for increased chances of above-normal precipitation. Persistence is favored for most of the remaining drought area in southeastern Michigan. However, improvement or removal is forecast for the extreme southern part of this drought area where the WPC is calling for more than 1 inch of precipitation, liquid equivalent, during the first week of March. A complicating factor for improving drought conditions at this time of year across the upper Midwest is frozen soils which limits soil moisture recharge. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region. 

Abnormal dryness (D0) and short-term moderate drought (D1) continues to expand across the Florida Peninsula where many areas received less than 1 inch of precipitation during February. Also, temperatures were unseasonably warm which contributed to worsening soil moisture (below the 30th percentile) and increased wildfire danger. At the end of February, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index is very high across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. Based on a continued dry, warm  pattern through early March, drought development is forecast for nearly the entire Florida Peninsula. The one exception is parts of southeastern Florida that received heavy rainfall early in February. It should be noted that temperatures may moderate later in March with increasing chances of at least periods of rainfall. Until this predicted pattern change occurs, development is favored. Although the Florida Panhandle was drier-than-normal during February, forecast confidence is too low to include development since the monthly outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Long-term drought is forecast to persist across parts of southeastern Virginia since February was drier-than-normal and it is also unlikely that March precipitation amounts will offset large precipitation deficits dating back more than 6 months. 

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.

The Northeast became drought-free by the beginning of February and is expected to remain drought-free through the end of March. Despite a drier-than-normal February for much of the region, widespread precipitation (0.5 to 2 inches, liquid equivalent) at the beginning of March is likely to reduce the 30-day precipitation deficits. 

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

Based on near or above-normal snow water equivalent values throughout the river basins of Alaska, drought is unlikely to develop by the end of March.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

A Kona low contributed to a wet February throughout Hawaii, which is consistent with the ongoing La Nina. Hawaii became drought-free during early February. Since dynamical models depict a continued wet pattern though at least mid-March, Hawaii is likely to remain drought-free through the end of March. 

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii. 

Since October 2022, Puerto Rico has remained drought-free. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on February 21, 2023, 15. 69 percent of Puerto Rico is designated with abnormal dryness (D0). Since dynamical models depict near average precipitation through mid-March, confidence is too low for a development forecast across the ongoing D0 areas. 

Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.


Forecaster: Brad Pugh
 
Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: March 31, 2023 at 3PM EDT