Tools used in the Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February 2023, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the weekly and monthly time scales such as version 2 of the Climate Forecast System model (CFSv2), climatology for February, La Niña composites, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on January 24 was used for initial drought conditions.

About 50 percent of the West Region was covered in moderate drought or worse in late December. The past 4 weeks have been exceptionally wet across much of the West Coast. Several atmospheric river storm systems moved across the region during the period and brought multiple feet of snowpack to some higher elevations in the region, and 10 to 20 inches of rainfall along much of the West Coast, especially in most of California, where heavy precipitation brought widespread 1 to 3 class drought improvement. Drought conditions have deteriorated over a few areas in western Oregon, part of southern Montana and eastern New Mexico. Precipitation climatology for February differs sharply from west to east in the West Region. This is still the heart of the wet season in the Far West. February typically brings 10 to 25 percent of the annual precipitation total to areas from the Cascades and Sierra Nevada westward to the Pacific Coast. In contrast, the easternmost parts of the West Region in eastern Montana and eastern New Mexico are drier in winter than most other seasons. On average, February only provides about 2 to 3 percent of the year's total there. In between these two areas, seasonality is less extreme. February usually trends a little wetter than most other months in the northern Intermountain West, the western Great Basin, and the Mojave Desert. But February leans toward the drier side over the Rocky Mountains. Forecast tools depict near to above normal precipitation across most of the northern region on time scales ranging from one week to one month. WPC forecasts 1 to 5 more inches, liquid equivalent, over the first week of February from San Francisco northward to western-central Oregon. As the month progresses, most tools show precipitation decreasing in the southwestern region and near normal precipitation over the rest of the region. Therefore, drought improvement or removal is favored from northern California northward to of western-central Oregon and drought persistence is anticipated across the other existing drought areas over the West.

Forecast confidence is high to moderate across the West Region.

Drought coverage slowly declined across the High Plains Region from about 69 percent in late December to about 65 percent in late January. Several winter storms brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to parts of Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska areas and some drought conditions were improved over the region. However, nearly two-thirds of the region is still experiencing some degree of drought. Typically, February brings less than 3.5 percent of the annual precipitation total from Kansas northward South Dakota, and other areas east of Dever, Colorado. Much of the region is in its frozen season. Near to slightly above normal precipitation is indicated for February by most tools for the High Plains Region. The first week of the month could see light precipitation over the higher elevations in Wyoming and western Colorado, and the northern tier of the region, while no distinct tilt of the odds away from near-normal precipitation across the region late in the period. Giving all these factors lead to a forecast of persistence over the existing drought region. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

Drought remains across much of Oklahoma and the western two-thirds of Texas, with some areas in northeastern, southern and central Texas experiencing at least 1- or 2-category degradation during the past 4 weeks due to below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. During the past 30 days, 2 to 10 inches of heavy precipitation was observed across the Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys and brought widespread drought relief over the eastern portion of the region. The Drought Monitor showed 1- to 2-category improvements in most of these areas. February is the climatological dry season for western portion of the region and a favorable time of the year for soil moisture discharge, while the eastern portion of the region is slightly on the wet side and a favorable time of the year for soil moisture recharge. During the first week of February 1.5 to locally 4.0 inches of heavy precipitation from a plume of abundant tropical moisture is expected to surge from the central Gulf Coast northward from eastern-central Texas through much of Mississippi. Farther west, between 0 and 1.0 inch is expected over western sections of Texas and Oklahoma. For the month as a whole, this dry-to-wet pattern from west to east across the region is favored. As a result, drought improvement or removal is likely in eastern parts of the Southern Region while persistence is favored farther west with potential drought expansion across most of Deep South and western Texas.  

Forecast confidence is high to moderate for the Southern Region.

During the past 4 weeks, 2 to 8 inches of precipitation were received across much of the Midwest and brought widespread 1- to 2-category drought improvement for these areas. Drought coverage declined from around 37 percent in late December to around 18 percent in late January. February is a climatological dry season for much of the region but a favorable time of the year for soil moisture recharge. All range forecasts favor a wet pattern across most of the region in February. Drought improvement or removal is expected in the eastern portion of the region, and persistence anticipated farther west, from western Missouri northward through Minnesota.  

Forecast confidence is high to moderate for the Midwest Region.

Heavy precipitation also brought major improvement to drought areas from the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent Alabama and Georgia in the past 30 days. Rainfall totaled 5 to locally over 10 inches received across much of the region. The U.S. Drought Monitor depicted 1- to 3-category improvements across parts of the above regions. Some deterioration was also observed along the Atlantic coast and the northern Florida Peninsula due to rainfall deficit and above normal temperatures. A few inches of rainfall are expected across much of the Region during the first week of the month, except the Florida Peninsula. Monthly forecast favors above normal precipitation across the interior Southeast and below normal precipitation across the Florida Peninsula. As a result, the existing drought conditions from the northern Florida Peninsula to the Mid-Atlantic coastal region are expected to persist and drought development is likely in all of the Florida Peninsula by the end of the month.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeastern Region.

Beneficial heavy precipitation across the coastal region removed most of the drought over the northern Atlantic Seaboard. There is very little drought coverage in the Northeast. Only 0.2 percent of the Region is in drought according to the Drought Monitor. The small areas of drought remaining should finally be removed by the end of February, given above normal precipitation is expected and also a favorable time of the year for soil moisture recharge.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast.

No drought is currently in place across Alaska and Puerto Rico, and no drought is favored to develop in either region during February. February is climatological wet season for Hawaii Islands with forecast above normal precipitation for the month, 1 class drought improvement is anticipated across the Islands.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii, and high for Alaska and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Outlook issued: Feb 28, 2023 at 3:00 PM EST