Tools used in the Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January 2023, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the weekly and monthly time scales such as version 2 of the Climate Forecast System model (CFSv2), climatology for January, La Niña composites, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on December 27 was used for initial drought conditions.

Climatology in the West Region for January differs sharply from west to east. This is the heart of the wet season in the Far West. January typically brings 15 to 20 percent of the annual precipitation total to areas from the Cascades and Sierra Nevada westward to the Pacific Coast. In contrast, the easternmost parts of the West Region in eastern Montana and eastern New Mexico are drier in winter than most other seasons. On average, January only provides 2 to 5 percent of the year's total there. In between these two areas, seasonality is less extreme. January usually trends a little wetter than most other months in the northern Intermountain West, the western Great Basin, and the Mojave Desert. But January leans toward the drier side over the Rocky Mountains.

The U.S. Drought Monitor depicted about 64 percent of the West Region in moderate drought or worse at the end of December. While this is unfavorably high, it is the lowest for the region in over two years (since September 2020). The past few weeks have been exceptionally wet across the Sierra Nevada and (to a lesser extent) the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. A few areas have been drier than normal in western Oregon, across central Idaho and some adjacent areas, and in part of the desert Southwest. Totals were at least 4 inches more than normal throughout the Sierra Nevada, along parts of the California and Washington Coastal Plains, and a few patches farther east, primarily across the highest elevations. The tools are nearly unanimous in depicting abundant precipitation across most of the West Region on time scales ranging from one week to one month, particularly across most of California. WPC forecasts at least 5 more inches over the first week of January in the Sierra Nevada and over much of western California, particularly from San Francisco northward to near the Oregon border. Isolated spots in the Sierra Nevada could receive more than 10 inches of precipitation during this period. Farther east, central parts of the West Region are also expected to receive surplus precipitation, with 1 to 4 inches expected in the higher elevations. As the month progresses, most tools show precipitation decreasing in the Southwest, and expanding northward through the Pacific Northwest, which is more in line with La Niña composites. In sharp contrast, short-term and monthly outlooks show precipitation deficiencies from the northern Intermountain West eastward throughout Montana, and in the lower elevations of the desert Southwest and southern Rockies. Considering all these factors, improvement or removal is the only logical forecast across the western tier of this region, and over much of the Great Basin and central Rockies, while areas east of Washington and in the lower elevations of the desert Southwest and southern Rockies should see dryness persist or slightly worsen

Forecast confidence is high across California and the Great Basin, and moderate in the rest of the West Region.

Less unsettled weather is indicated for January by most guidance for the High Plains Region. The first week of the month could see heavy precipitation over the higher elevations from the Front Range westward, with above-normal precipitation also anticipated in a stripe from eastern Wyoming eastward through southern South Dakota and adjacent Nebraska. Little or no precipitation is expected for the first week of January elsewhere. This is a dry time of the year east of the Rockies. Typically, January brings less than 2 percent of the annual precipitation total from Kansas northward South Dakota, and under 3.5 percent in other areas east of the Front Range. January precipitation must be well above normal to bring any notable drought relief to this region. Past the first week of the month, below-normal precipitation is favored in southern parts of the High Plains Region while no distinct tilt of the odds away from near-normal precipitation exists elsewhere. Synthesizing all this information leads to a forecast of improvement or removal in western parts of Colorado and Wyoming, with persistence anticipated elsewhere. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

Although a significant proportion of the South Region remains in drought - especially across Oklahoma and the western two-thirds of Texas - most areas of drought experienced at least some improvement during December. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed about 43 percent of the region in drought, which is the lowest amount since late 2021. Relief was most dramatic in and around Tennessee, and in east-central Louisiana. The Drought Monitor showed 2- to 3-category improvements in most of these areas. Farther west, improvement was more modest and less widespread across Oklahoma and Texas, and a few isolated patches in southern and central Texas saw drought develop during December. A similar pattern is expected during January, especially early in the month. Heavy precipitation from a plume of abundant tropical moisture is expected to surge from the central Gulf Coast northward through the Ohio River Valley. Tennessee, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi are expected to receive 1.5 to locally 3.0 inches of precipitation during the first week of January according to WPC. Farther west, between 0.5 and 1.0 inch is expected over easternmost sections of Texas and Oklahoma, but little or none is anticipated over central and western sections of these states. For the month as a whole, this dry-to-wet pattern from west to east across the region is favored. From the lower Mississippi Valley eastward, the CFSv2 shows a dry mid-January potentially followed by another increase in precipitation later in the month, with little or no precipitation expected farther west. The CPC January outlook favors this same general pattern for the month as a whole, perhaps shifted a little east. The bottom line is that improvement or removal is likely in eastern parts of the South Region while persistence  occurs farther west. Antecedent moisture deficits, a dry monthly outlook, and warmer than normal temperatures could abet drought expansion across most of Deep South Texas, where some streamflows are already approaching record low levels.  

Forecast confidence is high for most of the Southern Region, but low to moderate in western parts of the lower Mississippi Valley where there is uncertainty regarding the western extent of the heavy precipitation.

In the Midwest Region, the forecast is similar to areas farther south, with improvement and removal expected in the eastern parts of the region, and persistence expected farther west. Moderate precipitation is forecast for most of the region during the first half of the month, with lower amounts expected thereafter. The first week of January is expected to drop at least 1.5 inches on southeastern Missouri and the adjacent Ohio Valley, and above-normal amounts are expected region-wide before near or below normal precipitation prevails later. January is one of the drier months of the year in areas north and west of Illinois, with less than 3.5 percent of annual precipitation falling on average during January. Farther east and south, January leans only slightly drier than most other months climatologically. Abnormal wetness is forecast throughout the region for at least part of the month, so many drought areas can expect improvement or removal. Farther west, from western Missouri northward through Minnesota, early-month amounts are expected to be short of the amounts needed to provide tangible relief.  

Forecast confidence is high for southwestern sections of the Midwest Region, and moderate elsewhere.

A very wet start to the month is expected across the Southeastern Region, which is not consistent with La Niña composites. But after drier weather around mid-month, some dynamic models show a re-development of heavier precipitation late-month. Several inches are expected over central and western parts of the Southeastern Region during the first week of the month, especially from western Florida through the southern Appalachians. Regardless of what happens in late January, this should be sufficient to bring improving conditions to most areas by the end of the month. The only exception is in southeasternmost Georgia, where only several tenths of an inch of precipitation are expected January 1-7, and most tools plus La Niña composites favor subnormal precipitation for the month as a whole.
Forecast confidence is high for the Southeastern Region.

There is very little drought coverage in the Northeast. Only 0.2 percent of the Region is in drought according to the Drought Monitor, down from over 20 percent in mid-September. The small areas of drought remaining should finally be removed by the end of January, given near to above normal precipitation is expected.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast.

No drought or abnormal dryness is currently in place across Alaska and Puerto Rico, and no drought is favored to develop in either region duringJanuary. Across Hawaii, a wetter pattern over the past few weeks has resulted in gradual drought reduction. This generally wetter pattern is favored to continue through January, which favors additional drought improvements, along with some increase in the low streamflows observed in many parts of the state.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii, and high for Alaska and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Monthly Outlook issued: January 31, 2022 at 3:00 PM EST