Tools used in the Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for November, La Nina composites, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on October 25, was used for initial drought conditions. 

Following a very dry September which persisted well into October, a major pattern change occurred over western North America during the final week of October. This pattern change featured anomalous troughing replacing the persistent ridging aloft which resulted in the onset of enhanced onshore flow and increased precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. Based on this recent pattern change and the likelihood of this wetter pattern to persist well into November, drought improvement or removal is forecast for western areas of Oregon and Washington; and this improvement extends southward to parts of northern California. The short-term drought areas are most likely to have improvement/removal compared to the longer-term drought across eastern parts of Washington and Oregon. A secondary area of improvement/removal is forecast for the northern Rockies where heavier precipitation amounts are expected during the first week of the month, with a continuation of above-normal precipitation through at least mid-November. Persistence is most likely for the remainder of the long-term drought areas of the West. Due to the wet Monsoon and predicted precipitation at the beginning of November, development is unlikely across the Southwest. 

Forecast confidence for the Western Region is high.


Drought coverage increased or intensified across the northern to central Great Plains since late September. Soil moisture is currently below the 5th percentile for nearly all of Kansas and Nebraska. However, recent heavy precipitation along with additional heavy precipitation early in November favors improving drought across southeastern Kansas. For the remainder of the central to northern Great Plains, precipitation amounts are not expected to be large enough during November to justify any broad areas of improvement. Therefore, persistence is the most likely outcome by the end of the month. During the first week of November, moderate to heavy precipitation is forecast across southwestern Colorado. However, the heaviest amounts are expected to occur in drought-free areas. In the abnormal dryness (D0) area of southeastern Colorado, forecast confidence is too low for development due to the lack of a dry signal early in the month. Also, the updated November outlook calls for equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation. Given the long-term duration of the drought across Wyoming, broad-scale persistence is forecast although northwest parts of the state have the highest chance for improvement.

Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is moderate. 


Heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches) at the end of October along with the likelihood of additional heavy precipitation during the first week of November results in drought improvement or removal for parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. It should be noted that these improving drought conditions for the southern Great Plains may be short-lived as La Nina impacts are typically dry heading into the winter. Elsewhere, across the Southern Region, persistence or development in Mississippi is the most likely through the end of November. This is consistent with the updated monthly outlook favoring below normal precipitation for central to southern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. 

Forecast confidence for the Southern Region is moderate. 


Similar to the southern Great Plains and Ozarks, widespread moderate to heavy precipitation during late October and additional wetness early in November supports improving drought conditions throughout much of Missouri. Although recent precipitation was lower farther to the north across northern Illinois and Wisconsin, additional precipitation during early November results in removal for those ongoing moderate drought areas. Despite a wetter pattern for Iowa during late October and early November, persistence is forecast for much of the state due to large 180-day precipitation deficits. Farther to the south and east across the Ohio River Valley, persistence is also forecast due to a lack of recent precipitation and a drier signal among tools at various time scales throughout November. 

Forecast confidence for the Midwest Region is moderate. 


Drought coverage increased across Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the western Carolinas since late September. As 500-hPa ridging is forecast to strengthen over eastern North America during early November, a continuation of a relatively dry pattern is likely to persist for much of the Southeast. Consistent with the updated monthly outlook, favoring below-normal precipitation, additional development is likely for parts of the Southeast where abnormal dryness exists. Closer to the Atlantic coast, heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ian along with the potential for near to above-normal precipitation during the second week of November were factors in not going too widespread with the development across the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia. The GFS model and many of its ensemble members are depicting an increased chance of moderate to heavy precipitation overspreading the coastal Southeast during the second week of November. Therefore, forecast confidence for development is low from northeastern Florida northward to coastal Georgia and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region, except for coastal areas where it is low. 


Periods of beneficial precipitation from mid-September through October continue to reduce the coverage and intensity of drought across the Northeast. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage decreased from 20 to near 2 percent for the Northeast since mid-September. Only long-term precipitation deficits remain for this region. Despite the recent improvement, the first half of November is likely to be drier-than-normal with anomalous 500-hPa ridging over eastern North America. Therefore, persistence of long-term drought is expected through the end of November. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.


Based on the absence of any abnormal dryness for Alaska depicted by the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought is unlikely to develop across Alaska by the end of November. 

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.


Although drought of varying intensity continues for Hawaii, improvement occurred for many areas from late September through October. Consistent with typical La Nina impacts along with a predicted wet pattern during early to mid-November, continued drought improvement or removal is forecast. 

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.


Due to antecedent wetness and a strong wet signal during early to mid-November, Puerto Rico is likely to remain drought-free through the end of November. 

Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

Next Monthly Drought Outlook Issued: November 30, 2022