Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for October, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical model output, October climatology, and initial conditions such as soil moisture and short-term precipitation anomalies. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on September 27 was used for initial drought conditions. Also La Niña is strongly favored to continue through October 2022.

Nearly 74% percent of the Western Region was covered by moderate to exceptional (D1 to D4) drought as of September 27 U.S. Drought Monitor, a slight increase from almost 68 percent coverage at the beginning of September. Most of the drought development has occurred across northern Intermountain and eastern Montana due to rainfall deficit and persistently above normal temperatures during the period, while episodic rainfall over the Great Basin and Four Corners regions brought some drought relief over the areas. Monsoon activity typically continues winding down during October, though episodic events such as enhanced southerly flow from East Pacific tropical cyclones can provide opportunities for late season moisture surges. The WPC 1-7 day QPF, CPC ERF outlooks show some potential rainfall for the Pacific Northwest, Northern and Central Rockies, and additional monsoonal moisture for the Four Corners region. The updated October outlooks depict a slight tilt in the odds towards near normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across much of the region, except the Central Rockies where above-normal precipitation is favored. Given these forecasts, drought persistence is favored across much of the region, with additional drought development possible for southwestern Idaho. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Western Region.

In the past month,  although localized convection brought spotty relief to portions of the southern High Plains and north-central Wyoming, the broader signal across the region has been degradation of drought conditions, with below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures observed during September. During October, precipitation climatology dries out considerably across the northern and central Plains as humid Gulf of Mexico air masses give way to drier continental air. Cooler temperatures, declining sun angle, and reducing agricultural water usage tend to lessen evapotranspiration rates as well, which decreases the potential for rapid drought onset. However, during October, an unfavorable pattern of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation is generally favored.  Given the situation, drought persistence for the existing drought areas and development in parts of areas already abnormally dry are favored for the region.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region.

During September, widespread rainfall swept across south-central Texas and brought substantial drought reduction over the region. Below-normal rainfall fell across most of the remainder of the region with above-normal temperatures resulting in a persistence and degredation of drought conditions. For the coming October, below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures are expected to continue across the region. Persistence is favored for the existing drought areas across most of the Southern Region and drought expansion is most likely in those areas already anomalously dry.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southern Region.

Below-normal precipitation along with periods of above-normal temperatures during September resulted in areas of drought expanding in multiple locations across the Midwest Region, with the greatest concentration of drought areas west of the Mississippi River, especially in Missouri. Episodic rainfall events brought some localized relief, but was not enough to promote widespread drought reduction across the region. During October, all forecasts favor below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across the Midwest Region. Despite the unfavorable pattern, a cooling climatology during October makes widespread drought development less likely. However, some development is possible across already abnormally dry areas west of the Mississippi River.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest Region.

Generous summer rainfall nearly eliminated drought conditions across the Southeastern Region, but small pockets of moderate drought (D1) remain across the upland region of South Carolina. During the past month, hot and unseasonal dry conditions resulted in drought developing across coastal Plain regions of North Carolina through the Virginia tidewater and lower Delmarva Peninsula. Early in October, widespread heavy rainfall brought by the remnants of Hurricane Ian is expected across most of the Eastern Seaboard, and drought removal is likely across the coastal Mid-Atlantic and southern Delmarva areas. However, in the absence of a clear wet signal in the first 7 days of October and the CPC extended range and monthly outlooks favoring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across western portions of the region, drought development is likely over already anomalously dry areas across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.  



Forecast confidence is high for removal and moderate for development across the Southeastern Region.

Drought conditions remain entrenched across parts of the Northeastern Region, with the worst conditions observed across southeastern New England. During the past 30 days, widespread rainfall was observed across most of the region, resulting in modest drought reduction and improvements. However, drought degradations occurred in southern New Jersey where missed rainfall plus above average temperatures and streamflow conditions was quite low across the area. Early in October, widespread heavy rainfall brought by the remnants of Hurricane Ian is forecast across the southeastern portion of the region. Drought removal/improvement is likely over these areas. For the remainder of the region, in absence of a clear wet signal in the short term, and the CPC extended range and monthly outlooks indicating near to below-normal precipitation, persistence is expected for the existing drought in the region. 

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Northeastern Region.

No drought is currently depicted for Alaska, and drought development is unlikely. Strong La Niña conditions persist across the Pacific, and given below normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii for October, drought conditions are expected to persist across the Islands through October. Puerto Rico has been drought-free recently, and with a fairly generous precipitation climatology, continued drought-free is favored.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska and Hawaii, and moderate for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Drought Outlook Issued: October 31, 2022