Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated temperature and precipitation long-lead forecasts (LLFs) for February 2021, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 5- and 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks (Week 3-4) and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and climatology for February, with the January 26, 2021 U.S. Drought Monitor used for current drought conditions. Recent precipitation deficits and surpluses and temperature anomalies were also considered. La Nina conditions are present in late January, and are likely (~95%) to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, and into spring 2021 (~55% during April-June). 

Although drought gradually receded from the Northeast in late 2020 due to the wet conditions and minimal impacts, the past 30-days have been drier and milder than usual, and recent USDM improvements have declined. With February precipitation climatology somewhat on the drier side as compared to other months; 5-day QPF keeping most of interior New England dry (immediate coast may see snow); 6-10 and 8-14 day ERFs hinted at slight odds for above-normal or equal chances (EC) precipitation; Weeks 3-4 expected subnormal precipitation; and the updated February precipitation has EC north and slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation south, the mixed signals did not favor either improvement or deterioration, thus persistence was forecasted for the two small D1 areas in northern New York and Vermont.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast.


Much of the region is currently drought free, and with the 5-day QPF, 6-10 and 8-14 day ERFs, and updated February 2021 precipitation LLF all favoring mostly above-normal precipitation (except Week 3-4 with subnormal precipitation along the East Coast), no development is expected EXCEPT in far southern sections (e.g. along the central Gulf Coast, most of Florida, and southern Atlantic Coast). In this region, the 5-day QPF precipitation forecast had lower totals while the ERFs, Week 3-4, and updated February 2021 LLF have EC or subnormal precipitation odds, and the past 30-days were very dry in parts of the Southeast and much of Florida, with some areas of D0 already in place in southern Louisiana, southern Alabama, northern Florida, and eastern Georgia and South carolina. The forecasted development area did not extend across the entire Gulf Coast as portions of the western and eastern Gulf received surplus rains the past 30 days, tempering any February development. Otherwise, development is favored in the drier southern areas as expected with typical La Nina impacts.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast.


Wet weather brought improvement to most of the region the past 30 days, particularly Texas, southern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and western Tennessee. The upcoming forecasts (QPF, ERFs, Week 3-4, updated Feb2021 LLF) depicted good odds for above-normal precipitation (and below-normal temperatures) across northern and eastern sections, while subnormal precipitation (and above-normal temperatures) were favored in extreme southwestern sections. February climatology is also rather dry in western sections. Therefore, improvements are likely in northeastern sections of the South (western Tennessee and northern Mississippi), with possible development in south and central Texas (with many areas already in D0), and persistence in western sections.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the South.


Varied precipitation amounts have fallen across the Midwest the past 30 days, with below-normal totals in northern and eastern sections, and above-normal amounts in western areas (e.g. Missouri, Iowa, southern Minnesota) and Kentucky. The 30-day temperatures have also been above normal.  Based upon QPF, ERFs, Weeks 3-4, and updated 1-month LLFs, above-normal precipitation is expected across the Tennessee, middle Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys throughout the period, thus some improvement is likely in Illinois and Indiana where normals and surplus precipitation odds were higher than in western sections. Temperatures should also average below-normal during much of February. In western and northern Midwest sections, although the odds depicted near- to above-normal precipitation, the climatology is much drier than eastern sections, and with the drought in western Iowa being long-term, it would take an extended wet spell to alleviate the drought there. Therefore, although some small local improvements are possible in western parts of the Midwest, overall drought conditions should mainly persist to the end of February. This reasoning is also similar to much of the High Plains (below).

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest.


As just mentioned in the Midwest section, many portions of the High Plains are forecasting equal (EC) to above-normal precipitation chances during February. However, the past 1-2 months have been quite mild and dry in the northern Plains, with drought somewhat increasing during the past 30 days, February precipitation climatology quite dry, temperatures typically quite low and expected to be below-normal during February, keeping the ground frozen; therefore, overall persistence was depicted on the MDO map for this region, although some locally small improvements are possible where (and if) excessive precipitation occurred during the month. The above-normal precipitation chances also preclude any February drought development in the region. The upcoming spring months will be critical toward moisture infiltration into the soil. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains.


Until a few days ago, the wet season in the Far West was not faring well for California and the Southwest, with SNOTEL average basin Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) less than 50% of normal across much of California, Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Utah. Fortunately, a welcome change in the weather pattern brought an intense storm system that dropped heavy precipitation (up to 20 inches of coastal rain and more than 100 inches of mountain snow) to central California and the Sierra Nevada. Lighter but above-normal totals also fell on portions of the Southwest, increasing the SNOTEL basin average SWE (on Jan. 29) closer to 75% (~100% in central Arizona). February is normally one of the wettest months for California, so a continued wet pattern would be very beneficial to the state. The 5-day QPF forecast has another Pacific storm dropping heavy precipitation on northern and central California and the Sierras, but less so southward. Then the ERFs and Week 3-4 predicted subnormal precipitation as did the updated February 2021 LLF for the West Coast and extreme Southwest (and subnormal temperatures). Since the Jan. 26 USDM was used for the initial MDO drought conditions, precipitation during late January (Jan. 26-31) plus February forecasts can be used in the MDO outlook. As a result, the heavy precipitation in central California during Jan. 27-29, along with the expected early February storm, were shown as short-term improvements to northern and central California and southern Oregon. The expected subnormal February temperatures should minimize snow melt and evaporation, but the overall pattern for California was still for subnormal precipitation during their wet season (Nov-Apr). The SDO [FMA'21] has persistence for most of California except the extreme northwestern portion. Recent wetness in extreme southern California would most-likely hold off any development of D1 there until March if the long-range forecasts are correct about subnormal precipitation. Again, some small improvements are possible in the West where recent storms dropped locally heavy precipitation, especially on mountains, but overall, persistence of drought during February was most-likely on a general scale. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the West.


In Hawaii, with a recent uptick in rainfall, the normal wet season ongoing, and La Nina usually bringing above-normal late winter and early spring precipitation, a general 1-category improvement was made for the islands. In Alaska, frozen ground and frigid air has the state in deep freeze mode, so no development is expected during February, although the southeastern Panhandle had favorable odds for subnormal February precipitation - something to watch in March. In Puerto Rico, the D1 area in northern portions of the island were most-likely to persist during the dry season. Without any definitive forecasts for above or below normal precipitation, no improvement or deteriorations (development) were made.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Hawaii, Purto Rico, and Alaska.

Forecaster: David Miskus

Next Monthly Outlook issued: February 28, 2021 at 3 PM EST