Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for August, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and climatology for August. Initial conditions such as current soil moisture and 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits were also factors.
 
Drought coverage and intensity increased throughout much of the West during July. 1-category improvements in the US Drought Monitor (USDM) drought depiction were limited mostly to southeastern Montana, while 1 to 2-category degradations occurred across Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. Short term forecasts favor below normal rainfall during  early to mid-August, and the CPC monthly forecasts favor above normal temperatures over most parts of the region, with above normal rainfall limited to eastern Montana and near to below normal rainfall favored over the remainder of the region. Therefore, additional development is likely during August across southwestern Montana, southern Idaho, New Mexico and Arizona where abnormal dryness (D0) is designated on the US Drought Monitor. Elsewhere throughout the West, persistence is likely due to a relatively dry climatology. 

Forecast confidence is high for the Western Region.

During July, drought coverage expanded and intensified across much of Colorado and Wyoming. This increasing drought coverage was due in large part to above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall this past month. Both short range forecasts and monthly outlooks depict conditions favoring drought to persist and develop across Wyoming, Colorado, while additional development is most likely across parts of southern Nebraska and western Kansas. Forecast rainfall coupled with below normal temperatures are likely to result in one-category USDM improvement across parts of the northern and eastern High Plains. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the High Plains Region. 
 
Drought coverage and intensity continued to increase over the southern Great Plains since late June largely due to above normal temperatures during the period. Persistence is likely across the ongoing drought areas of Oklahoma and Texas, with additional development forecast due to increased chances of near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures during August. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern Region.
 
Drought developed across parts of Iowa, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio in July. Due to the likelihood of above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures during August, drought removal or improvement is likely over the western Midwest Region. Since the updated forecasts for August call for equal chances of below-, near-, or above-normal precipitation, drought persistence across the northeastern Midwest region is likely for August.

Forecast confidence is low for the Midwest Region.
 
Until four small lingering areas of moderate drought developed recently, the Southeast was drought-free since March 2019. Based on the updated August outlook, calling for increased chances of near to above normal precipitation and a wet climatology, drought removal is expected over the region. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.
 
Abnormal heat and lack of rainfall during July increased drought coverage and intensity across parts of the Northeast. Much of New England is designated with moderate drought (D1) with soil moisture ranking below the 20th percentile. The updated monthly forecasts favor above normal temperatures across the Northeast, therefore, drought persistence is favored for August, while drought removal is likely over coastal areas of the Northeast due to potential hurricane Isaias impact.   

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.
 
Alaska has remained drought-free since March. Despite enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures,equal chances of below, near, or above normal precipitation forecast during August makes drought development unlikely by the end of the month. 

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.
 
Abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) continued across parts of all of the Hawaiian Islands since May. Due to the lack of a wet signal among the precipitation tools, persistence is favored for ongoing drought areas. 

Forecast confidence is low for Hawaii.
 
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (valid July 28), nearly 45 percent of Puerto Rico is designated with moderate to severe drought (D1-D2). On July 30 Tropical Storm Isaias brought 2 to 8 inches of rainfall to the Island, resulting in one to two category improvements. Given the monthly time scale, persistence of the remaining drought is the most likely outcome for August. 

Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.
 
Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Outlook issued: August 31, 2020 at 3 PM EDT