Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Weeks 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and February climatology. Initial conditions are based on the February 25, 2020 U.S. Drought Monitor. ENSO-neutral conditions are present, and are favored through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020, continuing through summer 2020.

Over the next 7 days, precipitation is expected in coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest and Cascades (West Region). Portions of central and southern California and the Sierra Nevadas are also expected to see some precipitation over the next 7 days, particularly in southeastern portions of the D1 area in central California. In addition, anomalous mean troughing over the Pacific is expected to progress eastward into the West late in the Week 2 period and early in the Weeks 3-4 period, elevating chances for much needed precipitation for central and southern California and portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region. However, amounts in California are likely not to be substantial enough to overcome the antecedent dryness already in place. This is particularly true in areas near Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo, California, which have already seen an early departure of rangeland vegetation, forcing farmers to begin supplementing their feed stock due to an abnormally dry January and February. Development in the Sierra Nevadas, near Lake Tahoe, is favored in association with below-normal snowpack (50 to 75 percent of normal) coupled with antecedent dryness. As such, drought development is favored for portions of central and northern California (from Santa Barbara northward), western Nevada, and interior areas of Oregon. Existing drought is expected to persist throughout the forecast period as the pattern is favored to be fairly transient across the region, with absent-to-weak precipitation probabilities.

Forecast confidence is high for the Four Corners region, moderate for the Pacific Northwest, and low elsewhere for the West Region.

Much of the High Plains Region has seen above- to near-normal precipitation over the past 90 days, with the exception of portions of Colorado and Utah and extreme southwestern Kansas. Precipitation is expected to fall over much of Utah and Colorado over the next 7 days, but amounts are expected to be near-normal. Below- and above-normal precipitation for the Four Corners region is favored for the 6-10 and Week 2 periods, respectively, with equal chances favored for the remainder of the forecast period. The rest of the High Plains also favor a transient pattern. As a result, drought persistence is favored for areas in Utah and Colorado, with no development likely elsewhere for the High Plains Region.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the High Plains Region.

Much of the Midwest has seen well above-normal precipitation, with widespread areas having seen water-year-to-date (WYTD) precipitation of 150 to 200 percent of normal. Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of the upper-Midwest for March, while the Ohio Valley is favored to see more variability throughout the forecast period. As such, no drought development is likely for March.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

In the first few days of the period, a low-pressure system is favored to develop over the southern Great Plains (South Region) and propagate eastward. Another potential round of moisture near the beginning of the Weeks 3-4 period could offer another opportunity for additional precipitation. However, there is great uncertainty in the intensity and track of these potential low-pressure systems and where trailing frontal boundaries set up. With year-to-date (YTD) precipitation deficits of 2 to 4 inches north and west of the Houston metro area, and WYTD anomalies of negative 8 to 12 inches over these same areas, along with widespread 4 to 6 inch deficits, drought persistence is favored for Texas. Drought development is expected along coastal areas of Texas, southward from Houston, as YTD precipitation is 50 to 75 percent of normal and February saw less than 5 percent of normal precipitation for many of these areas. The lack of a precipitation signal for March further supports this development, given the dry antecedent conditions. Development is also favored near and west of San Antonio, where 30 day deficits have reached 1-2 inches and precipitation is favored to be near- to below-normal for March. Additional drought development is favored over extreme southeastern areas of Louisiana, which have become progressively drier over the past 6 months (precipitation is 50 to 75 percent of normal over the past 180 days and 25 to 50 percent of normal over the past 30 days).

Forecast confidence is low for the South Region.

YTD precipitation was 50 to 75 percent of normal for portions of New England and Maine (Northeast Region). However, February saw near- to above-normal precipitation for many of these areas. The rest of the Northeast has seen above-normal precipitation for the past 90 days. In addition, above-normal precipitation is favored for much of this region through Week 2. As such, no drought development is likely.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

Large areas of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley have seen 12 inch surpluses or greater of precipitation over the past 90 days. Unfortunately, this has not been the case for areas along the Gulf Coast. A transient pattern is expected over much of the Southeast, with above-normal precipitation favored north of the Gulf Coast and into the Tennessee Valley. Below-normal precipitation is favored in central and southern portions of the Florida Peninsula, which have seen widespread areas of 25 to 50 percent of normal YTD precipitation, supporting some drought development in D0 areas there. No drought development is favored elsewhere for the Southeast.

Forecast confidence is low for Florida, and high elsewhere for the Southeast Region.

Mainland Alaska has seen an active storm track in recent weeks and this is expected to continue through March, while the precipitation signal over the Alaska Panhandle is favored to be absent to weakly below-normal. However, with much of the panhandle seeing above normal precipitation in recent weeks, the absent to weakly dry signals do not warrant any drought development along the panhandle at this time. As such, no drought development is expected for Alaska.

Forecast confidence is high for the Alaska Mainland, and moderate for the Alaska Panhandle.

Drought conditions in Hawaii have continued to improve in recent weeks. Continued improvement (D2 in Molokai) and removal (elsewhere) are favored as models are in strong agreement for above-normal precipitation for all of Hawaii for March.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

Eastern portions of the D0 area in northwestern Puerto Rico have seen 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past 7 days. The absence of a precipitation signal for March over this region in the models supports status quo for now. Therefore, no drought development favored for Puerto Rico.

Forecast confidence is high for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Adam Hartman

Next Monthly Outlook issued: March 31, 2020 at 3 PM EDT