Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and February Climatology. Initial conditions are based on the January 28, 2020 U.S. Drought Monitor. ENSO-neutral conditions are present, and are favored through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (60% chance) and continuing through summer 2020 (50% chance).


The Northeast region is currently drought free. There are some pockets of dryness at 30-, 60-, and 90-days, but at 4-months, precipitation across most of the Northeast is at or above-normal. There was only a small D0 area on the Delmarva Peninsula which had missed out on recent heavy precipitation events, but with moderate totals predicted on the 7-day QPF, above-normal precipitation odds in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day ERFs, EC (eastern) to above-normal (western) totals on the Week 3-4, and EC (New England) to above-normal (mid-Atlantic) precipitation on the updated February 2020 LLF, no new development is expected through February 29. 

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast.


Abnormal dryness recently developed along the coasts of South and North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, along with D0 in western Florida and southwest Alabama. A small D1 area remained in northwest Florida near Apalachicola. But like the Northeast and even more so, the 7-day QPF is quite wet across the Southeast (including 3-4" over the D1 area and parts of Georgia and the Carolinas), along with good odds for above-normal precipitation in the 6-10 and 8-14 day ERFs, the Week 3-4, and updated February 2020 precipitation LLF. Similar to the Northeast, this wet forecast during February favors removal of the D1 in northwest Florida, and no new development. 

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast.


The forecast for the South is somewhat perplexing. The SDO [FMA'20] made 2 weeks ago showed improvement for the southern Plains, and some USDM improvement was made in central, northern, and eastern sections of Texas, but some deterioration occurred in southern sections. The February outlooks are a mixed bag, with dryness early in the period (QPF and 6-10 day ERF), but then above-normal rain odds in the 8-14 day ERF (entire region), Week 3-4 (eastern areas), and updated 1-month LLF (southeast areas). Plus, subnormal precipitation is favored in western Texas in the Week 3-4. But since most of northern and central Texas recently received rain and drought improvement, it should take a while for these recently improved Texas areas to deteriorate in the cooler February air and somewhat dry February climatology. Thus, with the favorable February storm track and available Gulf moisture expected for southern and eastern Texas, improvements were depicted there. Further north in Oklahoma and Kansas, the two small drought areas should persist as recent precipitation shrunk these areas, but February forecasts are mostly dry.  

Forecast confidence is moderate for the South.


There was no drought or D0 in the Midwestern States, and the last 30-and 60-days saw surplus precipitation across the Midwest. Some 90-day deficits remained in parts of northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern sections of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, but the recent precipitation eliminated any previous D0 there. Although the short-term forecast is mostly dry (QPF), both ERFs and Week 3-4 favor EC to above-normal precipitation, although the updated 1-month LLF tilts the odds toward subnormal precipitation over Missouri, southern Iowa, Illinois, and western Indiana. Even so, with the colder winter temperatures, lack of evaporation and crop growth, frozen and snow-covered ground (northern areas), and no reported impacts, no development is expected during February.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest.


With the exception of some D0 and drought in western Kansas, parts of Colorado, and western Wyoming, the High Plains has observed surplus to excessive precipitation, especially the Dakotas. And with many northern locations under snow cover, frozen ground, and having a dry February climatology, this also favors no development. Farther south, recent precipitation has fallen on parts of the central Plains, easing drought in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. With good chances for above-normal precipitation in the northern Plains (updated 1-month LLF, QPF, both ERFs, and Week 3-4) and somewhat lower odds in the central High Plains, no development is expected for this region. It is possible that some slight improvement may occur in the central Rockies based upon both ERFs, but the other forecast periods are not confident enough (EC) to draw for this.  

Forecast confidence is high for the northern High Plains; moderate for the central High Plains.


With high pressure expected off the California coast for much of February, the updated February 2020 LLFs favored subnormal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for much of California and Nevada. The ERFs and Week 3-4 keep it dry, but with near to below-normal temperatures. However, with a more northerly Pacific storm track, moisture should funnel into Washington early in the month, then weaken later in February. This may be enough precipitation for improvement in northern Washington. During the past 30-days, surplus precipitation has fallen on the Northwest, improving WYTD basin average precipitation and Snow Water Content (SWC) after a rather dry November and December. In contrast, the Southwest was wet during Nov-Dec 2019, but very dry during the past 30-days. In-between the Northwest and Southwest (e.g. southern Oregon and northern California), dry weather occurred during Nov'19 and Jan'20, and normal precipitation during Dec'19. As a result, WYTD SNOTEL basin average precipitation is close to normal (between 90-110%) in most western basins, although drier (60-80%) in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada. But since it was relatively cold during OND'19, more of the precipitation fell as snow and built up the snowpack, leading to Jan. 29 SWC basin averages at or above normal in much of the West, except lower in the Sierra Nevada and central Idaho. 
Based upon the forecasts and current conditions, development is possible south of the 2 drought areas in WA/OR and Idaho where it has been drier than surrounding areas since November, and is now in D0. In California, even though the February forecasts are for dry and mild conditions, there is still March and April remaining in the wet season that could overcome any dryness in February. So drought development is possible in California, but more-likely to occur in March or April when the wet season starts winding down. Fortunately, the major California reservoirs are in good shape. In the Four Corners region, the February outlooks were a mixed bag (mostly EC), and with a wet ND'19 and dry Jan'20, no clear February signal was there, so persistence was forecast.     

Forecast confidence for the West is moderate.


All drought (D1 or drier) was recently removed from Alaska and Puerto Rico with wetter conditions, and with most February forecasts (except the Week 3-4) expected to favor above-normal precipitation (Alaska) or EC (Puerto Rico), no development was made. In Hawaii, the rainy season has been quite wet leading to recent improvements in the islands, and that pattern is expected to continue during February, with additional improvements expected.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska; moderate to high for Hawaii and Puerto Rico.


Forecaster: David Miskus

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: February 29, 2020 at 3 PM EST