Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and January Climatology. Initial conditions are based on the December 24, 2019 U.S. Drought Monitor.

Only two small areas of drought remain in the Southeast Region, both in Florida. Precipitation early in the period and odds favoring surplus precipitation during the second week of January led to a forecast of removal in the Florida Panhandle. Farther south in the lower Florida Peninsula, precipitation should be less robust, and with January being one of the driest months of the year climatologically, even above-normal precipitation is not likely to significantly improve drought conditions there, especially with enhanced chances for a warmer-than-normal January. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southeast Region.

The Northeast region is drought-free currently, and at this time there is no reason to expect any drought development by the end of January.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

The Midwest Region is also drought-free currently, with just a small area of abnormal dryness noted in central Indiana. Marginal moisture deficits for the past 90 days exist only there and in part of northwestern Ohio, portions of northern and western Missouri, and adjacent Iowa. Surplus precipitation is favored over much of Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes early in the period, and odds lean toward above-normal amounts regionwide the second week of January. There is no discernable reason to expect drought development by the end of January at this time.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

In the Southern Region, drought covers small areas in east-central and northwestern Louisiana, a significant swath from southern through central and northeastern Texas, part of the west-central Red River Valley, and portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle. Climatologically, this is a dry time of the year in the central and southern Plains, outside eastern Texas. In north-central and northwestern Oklahoma, only about two percent of annual precipitation falls in January on average, increasing southward and eastward to around eight percent in eastern Texas. But despite climatology, unseasonably heavy precipitation early in the period should bring some improvement to parts of southwestern Okalhoma and the adjacent Texas Panhandle, and in the northeastern Oklahoma Panhandle. In addition, small parts of central and southeastern Texas should see improvement with short-term precipitation. Farther east, the January outlook favors above-normal precipitation in eastern Louisiana, leading to a forecast of drought removal there. In most drought areas, however, drought persistence is anticipated, with limited expansion expected in part of central Texas. Short-term precipitation is not expected to be as robust in these areas, and given the dry climatology, substantial improvement seems unlikely.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region.

A broad area of drought stretches from southern and western Colorado and adjacent Kansas in the High Plains Region, westward across a large part of Utah and the northern tiers of Arizona and New Mexico in the Western Region, so the narratives specific to these two regions are combined here. This is a very dry time of year in southwestern Kansas, eastern Colorado, and eastern New Mexico, where only one to four percent of annual precipitation typically falls during January. The seasonality becomes less dry moving westward, however, and the western half of Colorado, most of Utah, northwestern New Mexico, and most of Arizona usually accumulate five to fifteen percent of annual precipitation during the first month of the year. Regardless, useasonably heavy precipitation in the short-term should bring improvement to southwestern Kansas and adjacent Colorado while more gradual improvement, in concert with recent trends, should help dryness ease in part of northern Arizona and adjacent southwestern Utah. Improvement is also expected near the Four Corners, where mild reductions in moisture deficits are expected in an area already on the cusp of improving from severe drought to moderate drought on the Drought Monitor. Elsewhere from Arizona and Utah eastward into Kansas, drought persistence is forecast, as slight reductions in moisture deficits, should they occur, likely won't be sufficient to noticeably improve conditions. This is particularly true in eastern Colorado and adjacent areas, where January is dry climatologically. Farther northwest, in the northern Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest, swaths of moderate drought developed during December and are expected to persist through January, though with low confidence. Moderate to heavy precipitation is possible in the short-term, but in this region where January is among the wettest months of the year, it is not expected to be enough to substantially reduce moisture shortages or improve higher-elevation snowpack relative to normal in the next few weeks.

Forecast confidence is high for the central High Plains, moderate in and near the Four Corners Region, and low in the Northwest.

Drought currently covers part of southeastern Alaska, and though January is a relatively wet time of year, precipitation is expected to be insufficient to improve this area of long-term drought by the end of January. Persistence is also forecast in southeastern Puerto Rico, though with low confidence given a lack of cohesive indicators. Finally, precipitation is expected to increase in the areas of drought across central and southeastern Hawaii, bringing widespread improvement or removal there.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska and Hawaii, and low Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2020 at 3 PM EST