Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for December, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, and climatology for December. Initial conditions are based on the November 26 U.S. Drought Monitor.

During past 30 days, widespread rainfall exceeded 1 to 8 inches across much of the eastern CONUS and drought condistions were greatly improved over this region. Based on precipitation forecasts from the short-term up to a month, and also a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, drought improvement and removal are likely across South Carolina, northern Georgia and central Alabama. Due to predicted below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures in December, drought persistence is favored for Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and drought development is favored for currently abnormally dry areas in the southern Florida Peninsula. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region.

The Northeast region is drought-free currently. Given the reduced temperatures and generally wet climatology, drought development is not anticipated.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

Increased precipitation and decreased temperatures in November wiped out widespread short-term drought that developed across the Midwest during late Summer and early Fall. December typically presents a good opportunity for soil moisture recharge across eastern parts of the region, with vegetation entering dormancy, decreasing sun angles and temperatures. The forecast cold fronts crossing the region during December and the updated all range precipitation forecasts favor above normal precipitation. Based on these factors, the Midwest region is favored to remain drought free by the end of the month.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation improved short-term drought condidtions over northwest Texas. During December, a drier climatology along with increased chances of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures favor persistence or redevelopment of drought across parts of Texas.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region.

A lack of summer monsoon rainfall resulted in drought development across the Four Corners region. Ongoing precipitation along with increased chances for above normal precipitation through the end of December support improvment or removal of drought across much of the Four Corner Region, except the southern High Plains where persistence of drought conditions is likely due to the lack of precipitation forecast through December. Soil moisture remains abundant to excessive across the Northern Plains. The Pacific Northwest is currently drought free, with snowpack conditions across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevadas, as well as California reservoir levels, in good shape for this time of year. The short-term forecasts and updated CPC December outlooks favor above normal precipitation across much of the western CONUS. Therefore, no additional development is anticipated as temperatures decrease and the wet season begins ramping up across the Pacific coast.

Forecast confidence is high for the Western and High Plains Regions.

Drought free is back for mainland of Alaska and drought conditions are improved across the Alaska Panhandle. The updated CPC extended range forecasts favor increased chances for above normal precipitation across southern Alaska and a wet climatology for the Panhandle, so improvement or removal of the small remaining drought area over the Panhandle is anticipated. For Hawaii, dynamical model forecasts generally favor above normal precipitation across the islands with the coming wet season. Therefore, further drought improvements are anticipated for Hawaii. As of the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, Puerto Rico is now drought free, and drought redevelopment is not anticipated during December.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: December 31, 2019 at 3 PM EST