Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January 2019, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models on the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, January climatology relative to other times of the year, predicted soil moisture anomalies from the GFS model, and initial conditions. 

The vast majority of the nation's drought is occurring in the Western Region, plus Colorado. Protracted, entrenched D3-D4 conditions cover the central to east-central Four Corners states. Broad swaths of D3 exist in central and eastern Oregon, with smaller patches of extreme drought in north-central and southeastern California and over northeastern Utah. Severe drought covers most of the rest of the Four Corners Region, northern Utah, most of Oregon, and smaller adjacent areas in addition to parts of west-central Arizona and southern California.

Odds favor above-normal January precipitation from the southern one-third of California eastward through the southern two-thirds of the Four Corners states. But despite the monthly outlook, drought persistence is forecast for most of this region. Drought is well entrenched through much of this area (which includes much of the core Four Corners' D3-D4 region), and from central Arizona and Utah eastward, January is a relatively dry time of year, especially in the eastern Rockies and High Plains. This limits the chances that precipitation, even if above-normal, can significantly cut long-term moisture deficits.

There are parts of this broad region where drought improvement or removal is anticipated. Specifically, conditions in southern California and western Arizona should improve, as indicators strongly favor copious precipitation there. Drought is forecast to be removed from the San Joaquin Valley, where anticipated above-normal precipitation during one of the wettest months of the year should ease moderate drought (D1).

Farther north, a warm January plus a nondescript monthly precipitation outlook makes persistence the forecast of least regret. Even above-normal precipitation could result in subnormal snowpack due to the expected mild temperatures, and with snowpack typically increasing into late March, it is unlikely that January precipitation will be enough to firmly determine whether or not drought improvement is underway.

Across the northern tier of the Western Region, odds favor subnormal January precipitation and thus drought persistence. The only exception is in northwestern Oregon, where recent heavy precipitation may continue almost into the middle of one of the wettest months of the year. If the last half of the month is drier, it is unlikely to change conditions established during the first half of January. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high across the southern and northern tiers of the Western Region, and moderate to low in central areas.

The areas of drought in the High Plains should persist. Colorado is discussed in the Western Region paragraphs above; elsewhere, drought is limited to the southern tier of Wyoming and northern North Dakota. Most of North Dakota receives only 1.0 to 3.5 percent of its annual precipitation during January, and the monthly outlook favors subnormal precipitation in southern Wyoming, where climatology is only slightly wetter.

Forecast confidence for the High Plains region is high.

The South Region is also mostly drought free at this time. Only small areas of drought are noted in part of the central Texas Panhandle, and across northeastern Oklahoma. Dry climatology favors drought persistence in Texas. In northeastern Oklahoma, adjacent areas in southwestern Missouri and small parts of Arkansas and Kansas, heavy precipitation early in the period is expected to result in drought removal.

Forecast confidence for the South is high.

There is no drought over the Midwestern states at this time outside the small section of southwestern Missouri discussed in the Southern Region paragraphs. By the end of January, the entire region is expected to be drought free, with no development anticipated. 

Forecast confidence for the Midwest region is high.

Across the Southeast region, only southeastern Florida is enduring any degree of drought. Although the El Nino development favors above-normal precipitation here, all other dynamic and objective indicators point toward a dry January, which is a drier time of year to begin with.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high in southeastern Florida.

At present, there is no drought over the Northeast, and despite patches of short-term dryness in upper New England, no drought development is expected due to large extant surpluses in the southern half of the area, and seasonably- to abnormally-cold conditions farther north.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast Region.

Moderate to severe drought continues along the southern Alaska Panhandle. As this is primarily a long-term hydrologic drought, it is thought the drought will continue through the month of December despite suplus precipitation anticipated through the first half of the month.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Alaska.

The Hawaiian Islands and Puerto Rico both have areas of short-term dryness, but drought development is not anticipated.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
 

Forecaster: Richard Tinker

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: January 31, 2019 at 3pm EST