Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November 2018, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for November, predicted soil moisture anomaly from the GFS model, and initial conditions. 

Drought improvement is expected across the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Northern Intermountain and the Northern Rockies, due to recent heavy rainfall, the WPC 7-day precipitation forecast indicating widespread 1 to 5 inches across the Pacific Northwest and CPC monthly outlook favoring above normal precipitation over these areas. Broad scale persistence is forecast for the remainder of the West since precipitation during the next month is not expected to be sufficient for improving long-term drought.

Forecast confidence is high for the Pacific Northwest, California, and the desert Southwest and moderate for the Great Basin. 

Recent rainfall and forecasted above normal precipitation over much of the High Plains from the extended range forecasts to monthly outlook favor one class drought improvement for the Dakotas, eastern Colorado and northeast Kansas. Persistence is more likely over central and western Colorado due to very dry initial conditions (28-day streamflows and soil moisture ranking in the lowest 10th percentile). A relatively dry climatology and predicted lower precipitation amounts during November favor drought persistence across northeast Montana. 

Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is moderate.

Recent heavy rainfall resulted in drought reduction across most of Oklahoma and Texas since the beginning of October. Both short term forecasts and monthly outlook favor near to above normal precipitation during November over much of the Southern Region. Lingering drought across these areas is expected to be removed.

Forecast confidence for the Southern Region is moderate to high. 

The WPC 7-day rainfall forecast calls for widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 5 inches from the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. The CPC extended range forecasts and monthly outlook also favor above normal precipitation across these areas. Drought removal is forecast for central Missouri. 

Forecast confidence is high for central Missouri. 

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida on Oct 10. Michael and its remnant low brought widespread flooding rainfall and reduced drought in Georgia and South Carolina. Drought removal is forecast for parts of Georgia and South Carolina where the extended range forecasts and monthly outlook favor above normal precipitation across the Southeast. Above-normal temperatures and below normal precipitation during the past month resulted in expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) across the Florida peninsula. The latest GFS 384-hour total precipitation forecast calls for 2-3 inches rainfall and the CPC monthly outlook also calls for above normal precipitation over the areas which increases chances to damp drought development across Florida Peninsula.  

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southeast Region. 

A small area of moderate to severe drought exists across northern parts of New York and Vermont. Based on a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge, moderate to heavy rainfall during the first week of November, and increased chances of above normal precipitation during the rest of November, improvement or removal of drought is likely. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast Region. 

Moderate to severe drought continues along the southern Alaska Panhandle. Since both the extened range forecasts and the monthly outlooks call for above normal precipitation for the Alaska Panhandle, removal of D1 or improvement to D2 is forecast by the end of November. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska. 

The Hawaiian Islands and Puerto Rico are forecast to remain drought-free.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for Hawaii and Puerto Rico. 

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2018 at 3pm EST