Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the weeks 3-4 outlook from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly time scale, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for April, and initial conditions (the U.S. Drought Monitor valid on March 27, 2018). A series of wet and relatively cold storms resulted in a 1-category improvement or removal of drought across parts of California during March. Although California had its 2nd driest winter on record with only a third of its average precipitation from December 2017 through February 2018, the March precipitation eased drought concerns across the northern half of California. As of March 29, snow water content across the Sierra Nevada Mountains is running 47 to 64 percent of average for this time of year, a large increase since early March. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on March 27, moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought persists across southern California due to long-term precipitation deficits and multiple lakes (Cachuma, Casitas, and Piru) at well below capacity. Drought remained steady or intensified across Arizona and New Mexico during the past month. April is one of the driest months of the year across Arizona and New Mexico, while it becomes increasingly drier across southern California. Therefore, persistence is likely across ongoing drought areas extending from southern California east to Arizona and New Mexico. Snow water content is generally running between 50 to 75 percent of average across Utah. Enhanced flow from the Pacific is expected to result in a wet pattern during early to mid-April for the Great Basin with additional snow across northern Utah. Therefore, the most likely area to experience drought reduction is northeast Utah. Short-term drought remained steady across the southeast quarter of Oregon where snow water content is averaging 50 to 75 percent of normal. A favorably wet pattern, through at least mid-April, favors removal of the short-term drought area. Forecast confidence for Arizona and New Mexico is high and moderate for the remainder of the West. Drought continues to become more extreme across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. As of late March, winter wheat conditions were rated 49 percent poor to very poor in Kansas and more than a fifth of the state is designated with extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought, according to the USDM on March 27. Persistence of drought is expected through the end of April across the central high Plains where any rainfall during the next month is unlikely to offset increasing evapotranspiration rates associated with occasional warmth and enhanced surface winds. Improvement to drought is more likely across eastern Kansas where precipitation amounts are expected to be higher during April. Prospects for gradual improvement of drought conditions is forecast across South Dakota based on an increasingly wet climatology during April and many precipitation tools indicating enhanced odds for above normal precipitation throughout the month. Persistence is forecast across northeast Montana and much of North Dakota due to a drier climatology during early spring and less of a wet signal among the precipitation tools. Forecast confidence is high for the central high Plains and low for the northern Great Plains. Since mid-February, a sharp gradient from exceptional drought across the southern high Plains to excessive rainfall and flooding across the lower Mississippi Valley became established. 60-day precipitation amounts ranged from near 20 inches in the southeast corner of Oklahoma to only 0.1 inch across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Based on the lack of a clear, wet signal and the likelihood for periods of above-normal temperatures and enhanced winds, broad scale persistence is forecast for much of the southern Great Plains through the end of April. Improvement and removal of moderate to severe drought forecast across parts of central and southeast Texas is related to the heavy rainfall (2 to 5 inches, locally more such as Austin with 6.04 inches) that occurred during the final week of March along with additional rainfall expected during the first week of April. Forecast confidence for the Southern Region is moderate. Small areas of moderate drought (D1) are designated for parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and northern Minnesota. During the latter half of March, precipitation has averaged at or above-normal across these ongoing drought areas. Precipitation tools generally indicate a wet signal across the middle Mississippi Valley during the next two weeks. Therefore, removal of drought is expected across the middle Mississippi Valley. Less precipitation is forecast across northern Minnesota where persistence is forecast. Forecast confidence for the Midwest is low. Short-term precipitation deficits increased across the coastal Plain of the Southeast along with parts of the central and southern Florida peninsula during March. As of late March, soil moisture ranks in the lowest 20th percentile across southern Georgia and the low country of South Carolina. Elsewhere, the mid-South and southern Appalachians received beneficial precipitation since early March. Rainfall during the final week of March along with the likelihood for additional rainfall during early to mid-April results in a forecast of drought removal across Alabama and parts of central and southern Georgia. The most likely area for development across the Southeast is south Florida due to dry initial conditions and less rainfall forecast during the next couple of weeks. Small areas of drought are noted in parts of the mid-Atlantic. Removal is forecast for these areas due to the lack of current impacts along with recent precipitation and an expectation of a relatively wet, cool first half of April. Forecast confidence for the Southeast is low. The southern Alaska Panhandle is designated with short-term moderate drought (D1), while abnormal dryness is posted for southern mainland Alaska including the Kenai Peninsula. Impacts for these areas include decreasing reservoir levels and reduced hydroelectric output. Persistence is expected for the Alaska Panhandle, but confidence is too low to forecast development across mainland Alaska at the monthly time scale. Hawaii and Puerto Rico are drought-free and none is expected to develop through the end of April. Forecast confidence for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico is moderate. Forecaster: Brad Pugh Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: April 30, 2018 at 3 PM EDT