Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for July, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), CFSv2 monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for July, and recent precipitation. The June 27 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) was used to identify existing drought areas (D1 or drier) in the MDO. 

Portions of the middle Atlantic States are abnormally dry and approaching D1 (moderate drought) conditions. The 7-day precipitation outlook from WPC calls for light to moderate rain across this region for the first week of July, but the GFS 384-hour precipitation forecasts have placed several inches of rain on the region for the past few runs, though the 6- to 14-day CPC outlooks favor neither dryness nor wetness. No drought development is forecast at this time, but it should be noted that drought could develop and intensify fairly quickly should expected rains fail to materialize.

In the Southeast, only a small area in northern Georgia remains in drought. WPC is forecasting over 2 inches of rain during the first week of July, which should remove drought from this small area. In addition, the CPC July forecast slightly favors above-median rainfall in this region.
Forecast confidence for the Southeast is high.

In the middle Mississippi Valley, heavy rain in late June and the first week of July should remove the drought that developed across northern Missouri a few weeks ago.
Forecast confidence for the middle Mississippi Valley (northern Missouri) is high.

Drought developed and intensified quickly during the past month across eastern Montana and the western half of the Dakotas, with smaller areas of moderate drought covering parts of the east-central Dakotas and northern Minnesota. The past several runs of the GFS indicated isolated moderate rain at best over the next 384 hours in these areas, and the 7-day forecast from WPC calls for 0.25 to 0.50 inch across the eastern parts of the region, and little or none farther west. Longer-term, the CPC July monthly forecast indicates enhanced chances or below-median rainfall throughout the region. Climatologically, July is one of the wetter months of the year, but the region is progressing out of its wetter time of the year. The only logical forecast is for drought persistence or intensification regionwide. Drought development is forecast in the adjacent dry areas that seem most likely to observe below-median July rainfall.
Forecast confidence from northwestern Minnesota westward into eastern Montana is high.

Across Oklahoma and Texas, models and forecasts have consistently called for heavy rain during the first half of July in central Oklahoma, where drought removal is anticipated, but the outlook is less certain in areas farther south and west. Tools have been inconsistent in these areas. Currently, the WPC 7-day forecast calls for a couple of inches of rain in the drought areas along the central Red River Valley, but this has not consistently been the case for the past few days, and likewise recent runs of the GFS have occasionally but not consistently placed heavy rain as far south as the immediate Red River Valley. These patches of drought lay just outside area where odds favor above-median rainfall for July as a whole, according to the CPC precipitation outlook. If anything, July seems slightly drier than most months in this region, though not by much. Given all these considerations, persistence is forecast for the central Red River Valley, but with low confidence. Persistence is forecast with a little more confidence for drought areas in the Texas Panhandle and adjacent Oklahoma, as well as central and southern Texas. Here, July has been wetter than most other months over the past 15 years. Model forecasts here have been inconsistent, and there is no tilt of the odds toward wetter- or drier-than-median rainfall for July as a whole. Since the potential for heavy rainfall in the short-term is not as high as along the central Red River Valley, and nothing has consistently pointed toward heavy rains later in the period, persistence seems the best forecast. Confidence is highest across interior southeastern Texas, where indicators have more frequently favored dryness than elsewhere; slight expansion is anticipated in adjacent parts of interior southeastern Texas that look to be driest in the short-term.
Forecast confidence is high in central Oklahoma, moderate across interior southeastern Texas, and low elsewhere, particularly in the central Red River Valley.

What relief comes to the areas of moderate to locally severe drought in the Southwest will depend on how the monsoon season begins to unfold. Odds favor above-median rains from Arizona eastward toward mid-month, with most other forecast indicators unremarkable. Climatologically, this is one of the wettest months of the year in southeastern Arizona and adjacent New Mexico, where monsoonal rains are most consistently observed; farther west, July is usually very dry in southwestern California, an area not typically affected by the monsoon. Based on the forecasts for the second week of July and climatological considerations, drought removal is expected from south-central Arizona eastward, with persistence anticipated to the west.
Forecast confidence is moderate in western Arizona, and high both farther east (across southwestern New Mexico and adjacent Arizona) and west (in southern California) where climatology is most consistent.

In Hawaii, drought covers most of the western half of the Big Island. Earlier trends toward some improvement in northeastern parts of the drought area have ended, and this remains a relatively dry time of year elsewhere, so persistence is forecast. Precipitation increases climatologically during July across interior southwestern Alaska, and the 384-hour GFS runs have pointed toward moderate to heavy precipitation in at least parts of the drought area recently, so relief is forecast there, though without much confidence.
Forecast confidence for Hawaii is moderate, and for Alaska is low.



Forecaster: Rich Tinker


Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2017 at 3pm EDT