Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the updated Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for November, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), experimental weeks 3-4 outlooks, CFSv2 model forecasts, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, November climatology, potential impacts from tropical storms, and recent rainfall (since 12Z Oct. 25, the end period of the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor). The Northeast/eastern Great Lakes region: Precipitation departures during the last 14-days reveal near to above-normal precipitation has fallen across the Northeast. According to the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) amounts generally ranged from 0.5-3.0 inches, with locally greater amounts of 3-5 inches in portions of southwestern New York state and northern Pennsylvania. Current stream flow observations depict approximately equal amounts of below-, near- and above-normal values. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid October 25th depicts significant improvement in drought conditions across approximately the northwestern half of the region. In contrast, the southeastern half of the region has seen very little improvement. Precipitation outlooks from WPC and CPC out to one month in advance, and the 0z and 6z deterministic GFS total precipitation forecasts for the next two weeks, depict at least some precipitation falling across the entire Northeast region. However, the areas with the best chances for receiving substantial, drought-mitigating precipitation, continues to be northern and western portions of the Northeast drought region, as indicated on the drought outlook map for November. Forecast confidence for the Northeast/eastern Great Lakes region is low to moderate. The Ohio/Tennessee Valleys: The Ohio Valley received mostly near to above-normal precipitation (0.5-3.0 inches) during the past two weeks, while the Tennessee Valley received near to below-normal precipitation (anomalies of 0.5-2.0 inches) during the same period. This is consistent with improved stream flows and a slightly improved drought depiction across the Ohio Valley in the past 1-2 weeks, compared to conditions in the Tennessee Valley. Precipitation outlooks out to one month in advance indicate little relief from dryness and/or drought, especially in Tennessee. Drought development is also introduced for remaining portions of Tennessee. Forecast confidence for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys is moderate. The Southeast: The ongoing drought which started in March, 2016, has generally increased in intensity across the interior regions of the Southeast. Rainfall deficits of 1-2 inches during the past two weeks are common. Accordingly, regional stream flows are easily within the lowest quartile of the historical distribution, with many gauges indicating stream flows below the 10th percentile. Most of the Southeast is unlikely to experience significant drought relief. The only precipitation outlook which predicts increased odds of above-median precipitation (at least for the eastern edges of the drought region) is the CPC outlook for Weeks 3 and 4. Forecast confidence for the Southeast is moderate to high. The Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley: During the past 14-days, the Middle Mississippi Valley experienced all three precipitation terciles (below, near, and above-normal), while significant deficits (1-3 inches) dominated the Lower Mississippi Valley. The most serious reductions in stream flow, by far, are located throughout Mississippi. This state's USDM depiction remained largely status quo during the past two weeks (spanning all drought categories except D4), with the exception of the far south, where abnormal dryness (D0) was degraded to moderate drought (D1). In southern Louisiana, most of the D0 from 2 weeks ago was also degraded to D1 in the past week. Precipitation outlooks out to a month in advance favor the possibility of some relief over the northern and western portions of the drought area, mostly in the first week of November. Forecast confidence for the Middle Mississippi Valley is moderate to high, and moderate for the Lower Mississippi Valley. The central and southern Great Plains: Precipitation anomalies during the past 2 weeks ranged mostly from near to below-normal (AHPS), with deficits on the order of 1-3 inches. Despite these deficits, stream flows in this region were predominantly near-normal. Comparison between the latest two USDM depictions reveals only small adjustments were rendered in the Central Plains (except for expansion of D0 in eastern Colorado), with a bit more deterioration in the Southern Plains, especially the Oklahoma Panhandle and east-central Texas. In the first week of November, WPC predicts 1.0-2.5 inches of rain across much of western and southern Texas, and eastern New Mexico, with lesser amounts expected elsewhere. CPC's updated 30-day precipitation outlook for November calls for above-median precipitation across the southern High Plains, suggesting shorter-term drought removal for the region. However, drought development is favored in central and northeastern Oklahoma, and eastern parts of Texas. Forecast confidence for the central and southern Great Plains is moderate. The northern Great Plains: Slight deterioration and strengthening of drought was evident across South Dakota when comparing the last two USDM maps. Most of this region has experienced near-normal precipitation in the last 14-days, and this is in line with current stream flows which are near to above-normal. Prospects for drought improvement/removal appear less likely now than they did a week or two ago. Forecast confidence for the northern Great Plains is low to moderate. The Rockies/Intermountain Region: AHPS precipitation anomalies over the past 14-days generally indicate wet conditions for the northern half of both the Rockies and the Intermountain West, and near to relatively dry conditions for the southern halves of each region. The current stream flow pattern is consistent with the precipitation anomaly pattern. Relatively minor revisions were made to the USDM depiction during the past two weeks, though slight improvements were made in eastern Oregon due to the recent wet spell resulting from frequent Pacific storm systems. The best chances for drought amelioration are in the northern reaches of both the Intermountain West and the Rockies, though most other areas are unlikely to receive any improvement/removal of drought. Forecast confidence for the Rockies/Intermountain Region is moderate. The Pacific Northwest and California: During the last two weeks, precipitation has been well above-normal across western Washington, western Oregon, and roughly the northern half of California. AHPS reveals precipitation surpluses of 4-8 inches across much of the coastal ranges, the Cascades, and the Sierras. Considering the start of the Water Year was October 1st, it is clear that the wet season began favorably for this region. USGS stream flow values are at or above the 90th percentile for most areas of the California coast as far south as Monterey, and parts of the Oregon coast. In Washington state, near-coastal stream flow values range from near to above-normal based on the heavy precipitation received in recent weeks. While no drought is depicted for western Washington and western Oregon, the drought depiction for California remains mostly unchanged for now, pending reassessment of recent rainfall amounts, changes in stream and river flows, and assessment of groundwater conditions, reservoir levels, and a host of other factors. Precipitation outlooks through one month in advance promote some improvement and/or removal of drought across eastern Oregon and northern California perhaps as far south as Sacramento. Forecast confidence for the Pacific Northwest and California is moderate. Alaska/Hawaii/Puerto Rico: There is currently no drought in Alaska. Abnormal dryness (D0) in Hawaii expanded slightly in coverage during the past 1-2 weeks, though stream flows are currently near to above-normal. Improvement is anticipated throughout the Hawaiian Islands. In Puerto Rico, the drought depiction remains unchanged. For the southeast portion of the island, and for the adjacent island of Vieques, stream flows are running in the lowest quartile of the historical distribution. With the next week looking wet overall, there is still a chance for some improvement in the drought depiction, though the climatological rainy season is approaching its end with the close of November. Forecast Confidence for Hawaii and Puerto Rico is moderate. Forecaster: Anthony Artusa Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2016 at 3pm ET