Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for August 2016, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day precipitation totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC Extended-Range Forecasts (ERFs), Weeks 3 and 4 experimental outlooks, the NAEFS precipitation outlooks, dynamical models including the CFSv2 and GFS, climatology, and initial conditions.

Moderate to heavy rain is expected early in the month across New England and adjacent New York, with smaller but still significant precipitation expected from central New York to the Great Lakes Region. The odds favor subnormal rains the second week of the month, and neither extreme is favored for the month as a whole. Climatologically, soil moisture is reduced significantly more often than it is recharged. As a result, persistence is forecast in most of the Northeast, with removal limited to areas expecting the heaviest rainfall (2 inches or more). Similar reasoning applies to the Great Lakes Region, with removal restricted to parts of central Michigan, where soil moisture loss is climatologically less common. 
Forecast confidence for the Northeast and Great Lakes Region is moderate.

In the Southeast, moderate rainfall is expected for the first week of August, with enhanced chances for subnormal rain anticipated in eastern parts of the region. For the month as a whole, the odds favor drier than normal conditions from Alabama westward. Drought is expected to remain essentially unchanged in most of the area, though swaths of improvement and removal were put on the eastern and western tiers, where the heaviest rainfall is expected in the short term. Also as a result of the early-month wetness, no drought expansion is forecast south and west of the existing region, which it otherwise would be. 
Forecast confidence for the Southeast is moderate.

The areas of drought in the southern Plains should expect dry weather through the first week of the month, outside of a swath of moderate to heavy rains in interior southeast Texas. The second week of August may be wetter than normal, but conflicting indicators give little confidence. Persistence is anticipated in drought areas, with development likely in parts of central and southern Texas. Like areas farther east, early rainfall will keep development less expansive than it would be otherwise.  
Forecast confidence for the southern Plains is moderate to high.

In contrast, improvement and removal is forecast for drought areas in the central and northern Great Plains, with wet weather favored in part of the region during all time frames from the first 7 days to the month as a whole. Given this is a wetter time of year for the region, improvement and removal is the obvious forecast.
Forecast confidence for the central and northern Great Plains is high.

Robust monsoon rains are expected for the first week of August in the Southwest, and odds favor above normal amounts for August as a whole. This is near the wettest time of year for the region, and soil moisture is recharged more often than not climatologically. A confident forecast of improvement and removal is the result.
Forecast confidence for the Southwest is high. 

Looking and the Rockies, northern Intermountain West, and Far West, there is little chance for significant improvement, and development is anticipated in northern Idaho and adjacent Washington. This is a relatively dry time of year for the region, especially in western sections. Little or no rain is expected during the first week of August regionwide, and both the 8-14 day forecast and the August monthly outlook favor neither extreme in southern parts of the region while dryness is favored in central and (more robustly) northern parts of the area. Drought persistence is the only reasonable forecast.
Forecast confidence for the Rockies, northern Intermountain West, and Far West is high.

Moderate to heavy rain is anticipated through early August for the drought area in Puerto Rico, and with wet weather slightly more likely than either near normal and subnormal rainfall, Removal of the drought area is anticipated. Odds favor surplus rainfall in windward areas of Hawaii during August, while neither extreme seems favored in leeward regions. As a result, drought areas (mostly leeward) are forecast to persist, except in southernmost Hawaii Island (windward), where improvement or removal is more likely than not. 
Forecast confidence for both Puerto Rico and Hawaii is moderate.

Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: August 31, 2016 at 3:00 PM EDT