Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for June 2016, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day precipitation totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC Extended-Range Forecasts (ERFs), Weeks 3 and 4 experimental outlooks, the NAEFS precipitation outlooks, dynamical models including the CFSv2 and GFS, climatology, and initial conditions.

During the past several weeks, mostly dry weather continued to reduce streamflow levels, leading to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) in northwestern Oregon. June is a relatively dry time of year for the Northwest, but given the meager snowpack conditions in the Cascades, drought impacts are anticipated to increase during the summer months, particularly in areas already experiencing impacts. Little precipitation is anticipated during the next week, but the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both indicate enhanced chances for above-median precipitation. The updated monthly forecast maintains equal chances for below-, near-, or above-median precipitation. Based on the Week-2 guidance, while drought development through the remainder of the summer is anticipated, periods of precipitation may be sufficient to limit drought development during June. Therefore, no development is indicated for this outlook.
Forecast confidence for the Northwest is moderate.

June is a dry time of year across California, the Great Basin, and the desert Southwest ahead of the monsoon onset. While some adjustments to the drought depictions were made across northern California and Nevada over the past several weeks based on reservoir and streamflow conditions following the wet season, June climatology favors persistence for all of the ongoing drought areas.
Forecast confidence for the Southwest quadrant of the CONUS is high.

Small areas of drought continue to linger across the northern Rockies (NW Montana) and adjacent high plains (south-central Montana, north-central Wyoming, and along the Wyoming-South Dakota border). June is a climatologically wet time of year for the northern Plains, but drier across the mountains. Little precipitation is anticipated during the next week, while the 8-14 day outlooks favor above-median precipitation. During the Week 3-4 period, the dynamical model guidance is mixed, with the CFS favoring wetness along the US-Canadian border, and the ECMWF depicting a more pronounced dry signal across much of the Plains. Based on climatology and the lack of a clear and persistent wet signal, persistence is favored for the long-term drought areas of the northern Rockies. Persistence is also maintained for the small drought areas across the northern high plains due to the lack of a substantial wet signal early in the month, and the drier signal in the Weeks 3-4 guidance. 
Forecast confidence for the northern Rockies and northern high Plains is low.

During the past 30 days, parts of northern Minnesota received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation. The dry conditions led to expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) on the U.S. Drought Monitor released May 26. Recently, widespread precipitation overspread northeastern North Dakota, with precipitation currently shifting eastward across much of Minnesota. While this rainfall will boost short term soil moisture and streamflow levels, it will most likely be insufficient to completely overturn the recent dry conditions. Beyond the next several days, mostly dry weather is anticipated to return to the upper Midwest through the early part of Week-2. Beyond this period, there is considerable spread among the dynamical model guidance, with the GFS and CFS favoring wet conditions across much of the upper Midwest. During the Week 3-4 period, the CFS favors continued wetness while the ECMWF has a drier signal. Based on the near term precipitation and a potential for wetness during the middle or latter third of the month, no additional degradation for northern Minnesota is forecast. Drought development is indicated for the D0 area near the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota borders, however, since this area largely missed out on the near term precipitation, and the longer range guidance is generally drier.
Forecast confidence for the northern Plains and upper Midwest is low to moderate.

During the last several weeks, abnormal dryness has overspread much of the Northeast, while moderate drought (D1) continues to linger across southwestern Pennsylvania. During the next week, the WPC QPF forecast shows widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.75 to 1.5 inches across the Northeast. The CPC 6-10 day outlook depicts enhanced chances for above-median precipitation, while forecast tools beyond that period are mixed. The CPC updated monthly outlook favors wetness across northern New England, and maintains equal chances for below-, near-, or above-median precipitation for the rest of the Northeast. During the first half of June, dynamical models depict a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS, resulting in enhanced chances for below-median temperatures across the Northeast. Periods of cooler weather would help limit evapotranspiration rates and slow the impacts of drier conditions. Therefore, no additional drought development is anticipated for the Northeast during June.
Forecast confidence for the Northeast is low.

While widepsread excessive rainfall resulted in flooding across parts of Texas, and Tropical Storm Bonnie brought heavy rainfall to the southern Atlantic coastal plain, below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) across much of Mississippi and Alabama. Short term moderate drought (D1) continues to linger across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. During the next week, widespread heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across Texas and Oklahoma (locally exceeding 5 inches), and across the Appalachians (2 to 3 inches). Much less rainfall is anticipated, however, across central Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. A drier pattern is forecast for the Week-2 period across much of the Plains and the South. During the Week 3-4 period, dynamical model solutions are mixed, with the EWCMWF maintaining a dry pattern and the CFS forecasting heavy rainfall across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Mississippi. The updated CPC monthly outlook has enhanced chances for below-median precipitation across the Ohio River Valley, extending southward to northern Mississippi and Alabama. Therefore, drought development is forecast for northern and central Mississippi and northern Alabama, while existing areas of moderate drought are forecast to persist. The best chances for any improvement would be across the Smokies in North Carolina and southeastern Tennessee, but persistence remains the favored outcome through the end of June.
Forecast confidence for the Southeast is moderate.

No drought development is anticipated across Alaska, but low snowpack conditions may result in the introduction of areas of abnormal dryness (D0) during June. Persistence is favored for the moderate drought areas along the southwestward facing portions of the Hawaiian islands. Across Puerto Rico, while wet weather is forecast early in the month, a pronounced dry signal is favored for the rest of the month in the dynamical model guidance. Therefore, persistence of the remaining areas of moderate drought is the most likely outcome.
Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: June 30, 2016 at 3:00 PM EDT