Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) included the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2016, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day precipitation totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC Extended-Range Forecasts (ERFs), Weeks 3 and 4 experimental outlooks, the NAEFS precipitation outlooks, dynamical models including the CFSv2 and GFS, climatology, El Nino composites, and initial conditions.

Drought is expected to improve in northwestern California, most of Oregon, and adjacent Washington by the end of March, with drought removal anticipated in current areas of moderate drought. This includes the northwestern fringe of the drought region in California and southern Oregon, plus almost all of the northern half of Oregon east of the Cascades, and adjacent southeastern Washington. March is typically the end of the wet season in the West Coast states, but still leans toward the wetter side of climatology, and this trend has increased in recent years east of the Cascades. In addition, there are enhanced chances for wetter than normal conditions in California and part of Oregon, though not farther to the northeast. Still, with some indications that the first half of the month (at least) could be wetter than normal in the Pacific Northwest, and given the climatological trend, drought seems more likely to improve than not across the region. Farther south, in the remainder of California and Nevada, no improvement is expected before the end of the month. The monthly outlook features increased likelihoods of above normal precipitation, and there is a slight tilt toward climatological wetness in March; however, two factors argue for persistence. First, drought is firmly entrenched in most of the area, with many locations experiencing extreme to exceptional drought, and any improvement should be gradual at best, requiring multiple months of above-normal precipitation. Second, the areas where drought is less severe are entering a climatologically drier time of year, and March would have to be considerably wetter than normal for conditions to improve, thus persistence is forecast in central and southern sections of the Far West .
Forecast confidence for the Far West (including Nevada) is moderate to high.

The areas of drought in the Intermountain West and Rockies are expected to persist. Odds favor below-normal precipitation in the monthly outlook across the northern Intermountain West. In central areas, March has typically been a relatively wet month compared to other times of the year, but in the last decade or two this had not generally been the case. Across the Southwest and southern Rockies, March begins the dry season, so above-normal precipitation during March, as favored in the monthly outlook, should have little effect on existing conditions. On the whole, persistence is the most likely outcome, though pockets of improvement would not be surprising.
Forecast confidence for the Intermountain West and Rockies is high across the northern and southern tiers, but low to moderate in central sections, where indicators are mixed.

In the Plains, small areas of moderate drought exist in southeastern North Dakota and southernmost Texas. This is a drier time of the year for the Plains, with only 2 to 5 percent of annual precipitation typically falling during March where drought exists. There are enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation in southern Texas in the monthly outlook, but given the season, improvement there does not seem likely. In North Dakota, nothing points toward wetter than normal conditions in either the short or long term.
Forecast confidence in the Plains is high in northern areas and moderate in southern Texas.

In New England, wet weather was observed in late February, and forecasts call for at least moderate precipitation in early March. The monthly outlook favors neither abnormally wet nor abnormally dry weather, and March precipitation is usually not exceptional relative to other times of the year. Drought coverage has declined slightly since late last year, although no change occurred during February. Looking at these factors in aggregate, drought removal seems more likely than persistence, though not overwhelmingly.
Forecast confidence for New England is low to moderate.

Drought remains entrenched in part of southern and eastern Puerto Rico, although some improvement was assessed in late February. March is normally one of the driest months of the year, so even with some rain expected in the short term, drought is not expected to change by the end of the month.
Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is moderate.

Drier than normal conditions associated with the delcining El Nino episode should continue at least through the end of March. Drought should persist in existing areas, expanding to cover most leeward areas by the end of the month.
Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high.

Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: March 31, 2016 at 3:00 PM EDT