Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Expert Assessments
   ENSO Diagnostic
     Discussion Archive


About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

 
HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
 
 
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
10 May 2007
 

Spanish Version

 

Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions is possible within the next 2-3 months.

The pattern of anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during April 2007 was consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, with average to slightly below-average SSTs extending from the date line to the west coast of South America (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SST departures in the Niño regions are -1.2ºC in Niño 1+2, -0.3ºC in the Niño 3, zero in Niño 3.4, and +0.1ºC in Niño 4 (Fig. 2).

The upper-ocean heat content (average temperature departures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) remained below average across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 3), with temperatures at thermocline depth generally 2o-5oC below average (Fig. 4). Consistent with the surface and sub-surface ocean temperature patterns, stronger than-average low-level easterly winds persisted over the central equatorial Pacific. Also, convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and suppressed east of the date line. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to indicate the possibility that La Niña conditions will develop over the next 2-3 months.

Most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, including those from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) (Fig. 5), indicate below-average SSTs during the next several months. Some forecast models, especially the CFS, predict a rapid transition to La Niña during May-July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next couple of months are a critical time period for the possible emergence of La Niña.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 June 2007. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: May 10, 2007
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities