Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific during June (Fig. 1, bottom). By the end of the month, positive equatorial SST anomalies were observed in most areas between Indonesia and 90°W, while negative anomalies persisted along the South American coast (Fig. 1, top). The increase in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during June was reflected in an increase in the SST departures in the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 regions (Fig. 2). However, the overall pattern of tropical convection was near average. During June there was very little week-to-week variation in circulation features, as the MJO became inactive.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts (Fig. 3) indicate that SST anomalies will likely remain positive during the next 3-6 months, but still within the ENSO-neutral range.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 August 2005. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.