| The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast
of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192-196;
Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345), is shown in Figs.
F1 and F2. This forecast is produced
routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from
the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled ocean/atmosphere model
(Ji et al. 1998, Mon. Wea. Rev, 126, 1022-1034) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4. Predictions from the Cane and
Zebiak model (Cane et al. 1986, Nature, 321, 827-832; Zebiak and Cane 1987, Mon.
Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278) are shown in Figs. F5 and
F6. Predictions from the modified Cane and Zebiak model (Chen
et al. 1998, Geophys. Res. Let., 103, 2387-2840), referred to in the figures
as LDEO3, are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.
Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993, J. Climate, 6,
1067-1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10.
Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et
al. 1993, J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566) are shown in Fig. F11. The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
Discussion and Outlook
Cold episode conditions continued in the tropical Pacific during December, as
equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained well below normal across the central
and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18 and Table T2). Negative subsurface temperature anomalies and a
shallower than normal oceanic thermocline also continued to dominate the equatorial
Pacific east of the date line, with the thermocline more than 30 m shallower than normal
from 145°W to 95°W (Fig. T16). Accompanying these
conditions, the mean low-level equatorial easterly winds were stronger than normal over
the western and central tropical Pacific and near normal over the eastern Pacific (Fig. T20). Low-level easterly anomalies have been observed in
the western and central equatorial Pacific since June 1998 (Fig. T7).
At upper levels, enhanced westerlies were found over much of the central and eastern
tropical Pacific during December, consistent with cold episode conditions (Fig. T21). Tropical convection was suppressed across the
western and central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia, and the Philippines (Fig. T25). This pattern has been very persistent for the past
19 months (Fig. T8), consistent with the ongoing cold
episode.
Over the past several months the pattern of subsurface temperature anomalies has been
very persistent, with positive anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific and negative
anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). At
the present time this pattern shows no sign of evolving toward a pre-warm episode state.
Thus, it is likely that cold episode conditions will continue for the next several months.
This assessment is supported by the most recent NCEP coupled model forecast (Figs.
F3 and F4) and by other
available coupled model and statistical model predictions that indicate cold
episode conditions persisting through the first half of 2000.
Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, on the NCEP SST predictions, and
on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, we expect
wetter-than-normal conditions to continue during the January-March period over Indonesia,
northern Australia, southern Africa, and northeastern South America. Drier- and
warmer-than-normal conditions are expected along the southern tier of the United States
from New Mexico to the Carolinas.
Weekly updates of SST, 850-hPa wind and OLR are available on the Climate Prediction
Center homepage at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly
Update). |
www.nws.noaa.gov
