The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate
The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.
Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al.
2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere
winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013.
During November 2012, the
Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST)
anomalies were slightly positive across all of the tropical Pacific Ocean
except for the far eastern portion (Fig. T18), as also indicated in the Niño indices (Table
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was
also slightly above average, with largest amplitude in the east-central part of
the basin (Fig. T17). Despite the subsurface and surface Pacific
Ocean being slightly warmer than average, the tropical atmosphere remained in
an ENSO-neutral state. Upper-level and
lower-level zonal winds were near average (Figs. T20 and T21), and convection was
slightly suppressed over the eastern and central tropical Pacific (Fig. T25). Thus, both
the atmosphere and ocean indicated ENSO-neutral conditions.
Relative to last month,
the SST model predictions increasingly favor ENSO-neutral, with many remaining
just slightly above average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013 (Figs. F1-F13). While the tropical atmosphere and especially
the ocean suggested borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions at times
from July to September, these signs have now largely dissipated. Therefore, it
is considered unlikely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop during the
next several months. ENSO-neutral is now
favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).