The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño will likely peak during the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during
the late spring or early summer 2016.
strong El Niño continued during October as indicated by well above-average sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
Ocean (Fig. T18). Most Niño indices
increased, although the far eastern Niño-1+2 index decreased, accentuating the
maximum in anomalous SST farther west (Table T2). The
subsurface temperature anomalies also increased in the central and eastern
Pacific, in association with another downwelling
equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. T17). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and
upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the western to east-central
tropical Pacific (Figs.T20, T21). Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative (Table T1 & Fig. T2). These conditions are associated with enhanced
convection over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and with suppressed
convection over Indonesia (Fig.T25). Collectively, these
atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niño
Most models indicate that
a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16,
followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring
or early summer (Figs. F1-F13). The forecaster consensus remains nearly
unchanged, with the expectation that this El Niño could rank among the top
three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4
region going back to 1950. El Niño will
likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to
ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).