FIGURE F6. Time evolution of the NINO3.4 anomaly forecasts up to 12 lead months by the NCEP/CPC Markov model (Xue et al. 2000, J. Climate, 13, 849-871) initiated monthly up to MAY 2005. Anomalies were calculated relative to the 1971–2000 climatology . Shown in each panel are the forecasts grouped by three consecutive starting months: (a) is for December, January, and February, (b) is for March, April, and May, (c) is for June, July, and August, and (d) is for September, October, and November. The observed NINO3.4 SST anomalies are shown in the heavy-dashed lines.