The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.
ENSO-neutral, January was characterized by the periodic emergence of
below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean
(Fig. T18). The
monthly Niño Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 indices were near -0.5°C, while the Niño-4 and
Niño-1+2 indices stayed within ±0.5°C (Table T2). This
recent cooling was associated with the upwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin
wave, which was reflected in a dip in the oceanic heat content and
below-average subsurface temperatures across the eastern Pacific (Fig. T17). Upper and lower-level winds were near average
across most of the Pacific, except for the emergence of strong westerly winds
in the western part of the basin toward the end of the month (Figs. T20, T21). Convection became more enhanced over eastern
Indonesia and the western Pacific, and remained suppressed over the central
equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25). Collectively, these atmospheric
and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.
Nearly all models forecast
the persistence of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C)
through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, but afterwards, an increasing
number of models suggest the possible onset of El Niño (Figs. F1-F13). Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific
and the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the subsurface
western Pacific potentially portend warming in the coming months. However, the spring is also historically
associated with lower forecast skill, so the predicted chance of El Niño
developing after the spring is not much different than that of
ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is
for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).