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HOME >
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Probability of Exceedance Forecast >
Probability of Exceedance Outlook
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This experimental outlook product gives the probability that a
temperature or precipitation quantity will be exceeded at the location in question, for the given season at the given lead time. The locations
are one of 102 forecast divisions in the mainland U.S., or an individual station in other regions.
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This experimental outlook product gives the probability that a
temperature or precipitation quantity will be exceeded at the location
in question, for the given season at the given lead time. The locations
are one of 102 climate regions in the mainland U.S., or an individual
station in other regions.
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CAVEAT EMPTOR: This product provides forecasts for seasonal temperature
in actual degrees F, precipitation in inches, and
degree days in numbers of degree days. All of the forecasts,
however, have large uncertainties. In some cases uncertainties
are gigantic, while in other cases they are only moderately large.
Here at NWS/NCEP/CPC, we have tried to quantify these varying
uncertainties to the best of our ability, using expressions of
probability. We assume that users will hedge their decisions accordingly.
It is the responsibility of the user to examine the product and its
accuracy to their own satisfaction. CPC shall not accept
responsibility for the consequences of using these forecasts.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
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Luke He:
Email: lukehe@hp15.wwb.noaa.gov
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www.nws.noaa.gov 
