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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 22, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Saturday October 25, 2014 to Wednesday November 05, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 22 2014

Synopsis: Low pressure systems are predicted to bring unsettled weather to New England, the Pacific Northwest, and southern Florida, while the rest of the Lower 48 is expected to see relatively calm weather. No cold air outbreaks are expected, as the flow is predicted to come primarily off the Pacific Ocean.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday October 25 - Wednesday October 29: A strong upper-level trough is forecast to move through southern Canada and amplify as it moves past the Great Lakes and the northeast. It's associated surface low is then expected to strengthen and increase the pressure gradient around it. This strong pressure gradient is predicted to lead to high winds for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on the 26th and the northeast on the 27th.

The west coast is forecast to see a number of systems impacting it with stormy weather during this Outlook period. The first system is an upper-level trough making its way onshore at the beginning of this period. Additional heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is possible on the 25th. With at least 5 inches of rain possible from now to Saturday and 5 to 10 inches that has fallen in the past 7 days, flooding is possible. As this system moves into the middle of the country, a brief respite is expected for the Pacific Northwest as high pressure moves inland from the eastern Pacific. As this high pressure center moves into the central Rockies, moderately strong offshore flow is possible for southern California. While the magnitude of this flow remains uncertain, if it is of significant strength, an enhanced risk of wildfires could develop, as soils remain very dry in this part of the country.

Later in the period, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana are expected to merge with an upper-level trough south of Alaska and move towards the west coast of North America. While there is some model uncertainty as to which locations will receive the most rainfall, there is good agreement on parts of the West Coast getting at least another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.

An upper-level trough is forecast to move from northeastern Russia across the Bering Sea. The associated surface low is expected to direct high winds and significant waves to the west coast of Alaska, from about the Kuskokwim Delta to Kotzebue Sound on the 26th and 27th. This storm is then forecast to move south and potentially merge with the remnants of Ana before moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest Coast. Concurrently, a very strong storm is forecast to form and move from just north of Japan into the Bering Sea. This storm is predicted to bring another round of high winds and strong waves to the west coast of Alaska, this time from the Kuskokwim Delta to the eastern edge of the Aleutians.

TD9 has formed and is forecast to move eastward across the Yucatan peninsula. A minority of model solutions then move it northeastwards towards Florida. If this solution verifies, it would bring heavy rain, and strong winds and waves to the Sunshine State. Because there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast, people with interests in Florida and along the southeast coast should keep updated with the most current information coming out of the National Hurricane Center.

For Thursday October 30 - Wednesday November 05: Continued strong winds and significant waves are forecast for southwestern Alaska as a very strong storm is predicted to continue to batter the coastline. No cold air oubreaks are predicted for the Lower 48, as the mean upper-level pattern favors a ridge in the middle of the country.

The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 16, shows a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.6% to 18.1%. There is also the lowest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since December 2011.

Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.