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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 09, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday October 12, 2015 to Friday October 23, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 09 2015

Synopsis: An upper-level low-pressure area is forecast to shift westward over northwest Mexico, spreading some precipitation across the Southwest with upper-level high pressure over the Rockies. A surface Low is expected to form near the Southeast coast early in the period, before tracking towards the northeast and farther offshore. Several cold fronts are predicted to move across the central and eastern lower 48 states. Migratory low pressure systems are predicted to maintain inclement conditions across the southern coast of Alaska. During the first few days of the Week 2 period, most model runs agree that relatively cooler air may overspread the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic region.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday October 12 - Friday October 16: A storm system is predicted to track across central and eastern Canada early in the period. Its trailing cold front is expected to bring high winds to parts of the central and northern Plains, the upper half of the Mississippi Valley, and the western and central Great Lakes region as it sweeps across the central and eastern CONUS. This area may experience sustained wind speeds reaching 30 knots or greater.

Flooding is forecast to continue across the Carolinas. Some of these rivers, such as the Waccamaw River (Conway, SC) and the Edisto River (Givhans Ferry, SC), are predicted to be in major flood stage at the start of this period, with a gradual decline through moderate stage thereafter. Please consult the latest river stage information from the Southeast River Forecast Center at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc.

An active weather period is forecast for the southern coast of Alaska, in particular the Panhandle region. High winds (40-45 knots) and high waves (significant wave heights up to 27 feet) are anticipated on Monday, October 12th. Later in the week, however, there are significant differences between the deterministic ECMWF and GFS model runs, precluding the specification of any hazards on the map.

For Saturday October 17 - Friday October 23: In general, the predicted mid-tropospheric height pattern for week 2 favors a weak ridge over western North America, and a weak trough across eastern North America. The anticipated pattern favors lowering 500-hPa heights and cooler temperatures across the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic region. The probabilistic temperature tool supports a slight risk (20 percent chance) of minimum temperatures falling into the lowest 20 percent of the historical distribution across this area. Other than long-term drought, no specific hazards can be confidently predicted at this time.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, issued on October 8, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) increased from 20.09 to 21.45 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous week.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.