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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 25, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Sunday August 28, 2016 to Thursday September 08, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 25 2016

Synopsis: At the start of the period, a tropical disturbance is expected to be near southern Florida. This system is currently anticipated to drift slowly westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico then drift northward towards the east/central Gulf Coast and the southeast U.S.. Surface high pressure over Maine on Aug 28 is forecast to move eastward into the North Atlantic. At the same time, a warm front is expected to move northward across the northern Plains. Surface low pressure near the Alaska Panhandle during the period is forecast to bring unsettled weather to the region.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday August 28 - Thursday September 01: Early in the period a tropical disturbance is forecast to approach southern Florida. The disturbance is expected to drift westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Aug 30, then northward towards the east/central Gulf Coast by Sep 1. This leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of southern Florida Aug 28-29, and for parts of the southeast Aug 31-Sep 1. The exact track and strength of the tropical disturbance are highly uncertain at this time and additional impacts (flooding, isolated tornadoes, high winds, significant waves, beach erosion etc.) are possible for parts of the southeast and Gulf coast. In addition, parts of Louisiana are currently experiencing flooding so that additional heavy rainfall would extend and exacerbate flooding concerns, although the heaviest rain is currently expected to fall to the east of where the most serious flooding is occurring. Please consult the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

Southerly flow around the west side of high pressure centered over the northeast leads to much above normal temperatures (positive anomalies of 10-12 degrees F) for parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northeast, and Central Appalachians Aug 28.

At the start of the period a frontal system stretching across much of the central CONUS is expected to move northward as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Aug 28. Rainfall amounts may be locally heavy over portions of these regions. Much above normal temperatures (positive temperature anomalies of 10-15 degrees F) are anticipated for parts of the Northern Plains Aug 28-29.

Antecedent rainfall, in combination with additional rainfall expected during the period leads to flooding possible, imminent, or occurring across portions of the Great Lakes and the Mississippi Valley.

Despite dry fuels over much of the western CONUS, wind speeds are forecast to lessen so that critical fire weather conditions are not currently anticipated early in the period. Later in the period, model uncertainty is too large to specify a hazard shape.

For Friday September 02 - Thursday September 08: During week-2 the circulation pattern is expected to feature a trough over the western CONUS and zonal flow across much of the north-central part of the nation. This circulation pattern favors below normal temperatures over the western CONUS, and a slight chance of much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern and Central Plains Sep 2.

The tropical disturbance currently north of Haiti may be impacting parts of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic early in the period but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time. The Atlantic is showing increased tropical activity and this evolution will need to be monitored. Please consult the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the coverage of severe or greater drought decreased slightly to 7.41 percent from 7.71 percent. Improvements were realized across central Texas and the Tennessee Valley.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.