Valid Saturday October 25, 2014 to Wednesday November 05, 2014
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 22 2014Synopsis
: Low pressure systems are predicted
to bring unsettled weather to New England, the Pacific Northwest, and southern
Florida, while the rest of the Lower 48 is expected to see relatively calm
weather. No cold air outbreaks are expected, as the flow is predicted to come
primarily off the Pacific Ocean. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Saturday
October 25 - Wednesday October 29:
- Heavy rain
along the West Coast from Northern California to the Canadian border, Sat, Oct
25 and then again, Mon-Tue, Oct 27-28.
- High winds across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Sun, Oct 26.
- High winds across the Northeast, Mon, Oct 27.
- Heavy rain and snow for northern Idaho and extreme western Montana, Sat,
Oct 25 and again, Mon-Tue, Oct 27-28.
- High winds and significant waves for the western Alaskan coast, Sun-Mon,
Oct 26-27 and then again Wed-Thu, Oct 29-30.
- High winds and significant waves for the southwestern Alaskan coast,
Wed-Thu, Oct 29-30.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest,
Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
A strong upper-level trough is forecast
to move through southern Canada and amplify as it moves past the Great Lakes
and the northeast. It's associated surface low is then expected to strengthen
and increase the pressure gradient around it. This strong pressure gradient is
predicted to lead to high winds for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on the
26th and the northeast on the 27th.
The west coast is forecast to see a number of systems impacting it with
stormy weather during this Outlook period. The first system is an upper-level
trough making its way onshore at the beginning of this period. Additional
heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is possible on the 25th. With at least 5 inches of
rain possible from now to Saturday and 5 to 10 inches that has fallen in the
past 7 days, flooding is possible. As this system moves into the middle of the
country, a brief respite is expected for the Pacific Northwest as high pressure
moves inland from the eastern Pacific. As this high pressure center moves into
the central Rockies, moderately strong offshore flow is possible for southern
California. While the magnitude of this flow remains uncertain, if it is of
significant strength, an enhanced risk of wildfires could develop, as soils
remain very dry in this part of the country.
Later in the period, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ana are expected to
merge with an upper-level trough south of Alaska and move towards the west
coast of North America. While there is some model uncertainty as to which
locations will receive the most rainfall, there is good agreement on parts of
the West Coast getting at least another 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from northeastern Russia across
the Bering Sea. The associated surface low is expected to direct high winds
and significant waves to the west coast of Alaska, from about the Kuskokwim
Delta to Kotzebue Sound on the 26th and 27th. This storm is then forecast to
move south and potentially merge with the remnants of Ana before moving onshore
along the Pacific Northwest Coast. Concurrently, a very strong storm is
forecast to form and move from just north of Japan into the Bering Sea. This
storm is predicted to bring another round of high winds and strong waves to the
west coast of Alaska, this time from the Kuskokwim Delta to the eastern edge of
TD9 has formed and is forecast to move eastward across the Yucatan
peninsula. A minority of model solutions then move it northeastwards towards
Florida. If this solution verifies, it would bring heavy rain, and strong winds
and waves to the Sunshine State. Because there is a lot of uncertainty with
this forecast, people with interests in Florida and along the southeast coast
should keep updated with the most current information coming out of the
National Hurricane Center. For Thursday October 30 -
Wednesday November 05:
Continued strong winds and significant waves are
forecast for southwestern Alaska as a very strong storm is predicted to
continue to batter the coastline. No cold air oubreaks are predicted for the
Lower 48, as the mean upper-level pattern favors a ridge in the middle of the
The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 16, shows a slight
decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.6% to 18.1%. There
is also the lowest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since
Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.