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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 24, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Thursday October 27, 2016 to Monday November 07, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 24 2016

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure forecast over the Ohio Valley is expected to move off the New England coast as high pressure moves from the central U.S. to the southeastern part of the nation. A series of surface low pressure systems are forecast to impact the west coast of the U.S. Multiple areas of strong surface low pressure are expected to move from the Bering Sea towards northwestern Mainland Alaska. During week-2, air of Pacific origin is anticipated to dominate the lower 48 states with above-normal temperatures expected. An unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist over the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday October 27 - Monday October 31: Surface low pressure forecast over the Ohio Valley Oct 27 is expected to move off the New England coast by Oct 28. Heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is anticipated for parts of the northeast Oct 27-28. In addition, high winds (speeds in excess of 30 knots) are expected for portions of coastal New Hampshire and Maine Oct 28. Snowfall is possible over the highest elevations of interior New England but amounts are not currently expected to reach hazardous criteria.

A series of low pressure systems over the eastern Pacific are forecast to lead to unsettled weather for portions of the west coast. Periods of heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch over 24 hours) are anticipated for parts of Northern California and southwestern Oregon Oct 27-30. Local amounts exceeding 5 inches over the 4-day period are possible over portions of Northern California and extreme southwestern Oregon. Snow levels are forecast to be high with only the highest peaks expected to see accumulating snowfall.

High pressure and warm temperatures are likely to build in over the Great Plains. Daily high temperatures are likely to be 16-20 degrees F above normal, but high temperatures are not expected to be threatening to life or property, so no hazard is depicted.

Over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, a series of deep troughs are expected during most of the period. At the same time, areas of surface low pressure are anticipated over these regions. This is expected to lead to periods of significant waves (wave heights in excess of 20 feet) Oct 27-31 for parts of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Significant waves are also anticipated for portions of southwestern Mainland Alaska Oct 29. Periods of high winds (winds in excess of 40 knots) are expected Oct 27-31 for parts of western mainland Alaska and the Aleutians. Coastal flooding due to ocean encroachment along the western coast of Alaska is also possible. The risk to life and property with this predicted system is high.

Hurricane Seymour currently south of Baja California is expected to weaken as is approaches the Peninsula Oct 29. Moisture associated with this system may get drawn northward by the trough forecast over the eastern Pacific and enhance precipitation amounts along the west coast.

For Tuesday November 01 - Monday November 07: Air masses of Pacific origin are forecast to dominate the CONUS. No large negative temperature anomalies are anticipated during the period. A deep trough over the eastern Pacific is expected to maintain unsettled conditions for parts of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest but no specific hazards can currently be identified due to timing differences among recent model solutions.

Severe, or greater intensity, drought increased slightly in coverage across the CONUS during the past week. Severe drought is now covering 9.66% of the CONUS, up from 8.68% the prior week.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.