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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 28, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday August 31, 2015 to Friday September 11, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 28 2015

Synopsis: Tropical storm Erika currently near the Dominican Republic is expected to track south of the Bahamas over the weekend and be near southern FLorida on Monday. Surface low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Alaska on Monday is expected to cause onshore flow over parts of the Pacific Northwest during Monday and Tuesday. Strong northerly flow is expected over western Alaska due to the circulation around the area of surface low pressure forecast over the Gulf of Alaska. During week-2, an area of upper-level high pressure builds over the Great Plains.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday August 31 - Friday September 04: Tropical Storm Erika which on Aug 28 is located near 18N 69W is forecast to move northwestward south of the Bahamas and be near southern Florida early Monday morning. The storm is exected to continue moving slowly north/northwestward across FLorida and be over northern Florida early Wednesday morning. While the exact track and strenth of this system is highly uncertain, heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is anticipated for parts of the southeast Monday-Thursday. High winds (in excess of 35 knots) are also expected for parts of the southeast Monday-Wednesday. Flooding is possible for a small portion of west-central Florida. Please consult the latest advisories from NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov regarding this system and refer to local NWS offices for the latest statments.

Antecedent heavy rainfall leads to possible flooding for parts of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valleys.

Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to cause onshore flow and lead to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of northwest Washington state Monday-Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient between the low over the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure over the northeast Pacific leads to high winds (in excess of 35 knots) for parts of the Alaskan and Kenai Peninsulas, and Kodiak Island Monday.


Marginal critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the central Great Basin, northern Intermountain west, northern and central Rockies, and northern Plains Wednesday. A hazard area is not currently specified but ongoing fires are leading to poor air quality for the region.


North-northwesterly flow behind the area of low pressure forecast over the Gulf of Alaska and building surface high pressure over much of the state is expected to lead to much below normal temperatures for parts of central and eastern Alaska Monday through Wednesday.

Tropical activity over the eastern Pacific will need to be watched as systems move westward toward the vicinity of Hawaii. Hurricane Ignacio, which on Aug 28 is located near 14N and 144W, is forecast to move northwestward toward Hawaii. By early morning Aug 31, Hurricane Ignacio is forecast to be east of Hawaii and move northwestward from there. Possible impacts on Hawaii include heavy rain, strong winds, and sigificant waves. Please consult the latest advisories from NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov regarding the evolution of this system and its influence on the Hawaiian islands.

For Saturday September 05 - Friday September 11: An upper-level ridge building over the central and east-central CONUS leads to a slight risk of much above normal temperatures for parts of the central/southern Great Plains and lower and middle Mississippi Valleys Sep 5-11.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, valid on August 25, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) decreased from 18.21 to 18.07 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous week.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.