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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 22, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday August 25, 2014 to Friday September 05, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 22 2014

Synopsis: A stationary front is predicted to stretch from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners Region for much of the first half of this period. Upstream a cold front is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest by late next week. South of this front, temperatures are forecast to be above normal with daily highs well into the 90s. Meanwhile, areas behind this front across the Northern Plains are expected to experience cooler, below-normal temperatures.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday August 25 - Friday August 29: An upper-level shortwave is forecast to propagate across the western two-thirds of the CONUS during week-1. The associated stationary front ahead of this shortwave is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Great Lakes Monday to Wednesday. Some models indicate the potential for some areas to receive between 2 and 3.5 inches in a 24-hour period, with the greatest amounts expected over Nebraska and Iowa.

An upper-level ridge is predicted to dominate over South-Central and Southeastern CONUS early in the period. This pattern is expected to support much above normal temperatures across parts of the Central and Southern Plains Monday to Tuesday. Daily maximum temperatures in parts of this area are anticipated to be 12 degrees F above normal. Parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys have an elevated risk of excessive heat Monday to Tuesday. Parts of these areas may experience daily maximum heat index temperatures of 105 to 110 degrees F, with the highest heat index temperatures expected for lower Louisiana, potentially reaching 110 to 115 F.

The tropical eastern Pacific is predicted to remain very active during this period with three disturbances currently identified as of August 22, 7:37am PDT. Tropical storm Karina is the furthest west of these cyclones. Tropical storm Lowell is located northeast of Karina and expected to impact Karina's path. The current tropical storms are currently forecast to remain well out to sea and not affect land.

In the tropical Atlantic, as of 2pm EDT on Friday August 22, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting a 70% chance of a current disturbance forming into a tropical system during the next five days. In general, the majority of today's numerical models have taken this feature further east offshore than in yesterday's runs, precluding any associated hazards from being identified at this time. Updated conditions and forecasts should be monitored using NHC's webpage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

For Saturday August 30 - Friday September 05: The 06Z Deterministic GFS and GEFS Mean indicates the possibility of surface low pressure extending from central Canada into the Great Plains during the first half of the week-2 period. This pattern may support much below normal daily minimum temperatures across parts of the Northern Rockies next Saturday to the following Monday. The GEFS Reforecast Tool indicates a 20% chance of this area experiencing daily minimum temperatures below the lower 15th percentile and up to a 60% chance of subfreezing temperatures, with the Rockies in Wyoming having the greatest likelihood.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released on August 21, shows the percentage of CONUS in severe drought decreasing very slightly from 22.03% to 21.62%.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.