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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made June 27, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Description)

Valid Thursday June 30, 2016 to Monday July 11, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 27 2016

Synopsis: At the beginning of the Outlook period, a stationary front is forecast to extend eastward from the southern Plains to the Carolinas, as a cold front moves southward across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Several days later, this cold front is predicted to catch up to, and merge with, the stationary front. It is along this stalled boundary that areas of heavy rain are forecast during the 3-7 day period. In Alaska, another stalled front is predicted near the Brooks Range, while several weak areas of low pressure are expected to bring unsettled weather conditions to the southern Alaskan coast.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday June 30 - Monday July 04: At the start of the Hazards Outlook, a stationary front is predicted to extend from the southern Great Plains to the Carolinas. A cold front is forecast to push south out of Canada across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, reaching the location of the stationary front several days thereafter. This reinforced frontal boundary is anticipated to serve as a focus for 3 areas of locally heavy rainfall (2-3 inches over a 2-day period) and thunderstorm activity. The first area of predicted locally heavy rainfall includes portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri from June 30-July 1. The second area stretches from eastern Kansas eastward through southern Kentucky from July 2-3. The third area of predicted locally heavy rainfall includes portions of Virginia and North Carolina from July 2-3.

The high-based thunderstorms that have recently affected parts of the Southwest are consistent with the early stages of typical Monsoon evolution. As the lower atmosphere becomes increasingly moist, rain is gradually able to reach the ground, and increase in intensity. The latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic model runs predict increasing amounts of precipitation in the Southwest, resulting from the predicted availability of deeper moisture. The GFS anticipates fairly widespread coverage of monsoonal rainfall in general, whereas the ECMWF predicts precipitation to be more concentrated over eastern New Mexico and West Texas. The next stage in typical monsoonal evolution normally involves even deeper moisture moving into the Southwest, often associated with a Gulf surge or a backdoor cold front, and the ensuing development of heavy rainfall.

A stationary front is anticipated near the Brooks Range in northern Alaska during this period, while several weak cyclonic systems are forecast to bring unsettled (though non-hazardous) weather conditions to the southern Alaskan coast.

For Tuesday July 05 - Monday July 11: The Probabilistic Extremes Outlook (PEO) tool favors a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for most of the southern half of the Great Plains, and western portions of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, July 5-8. This area depicts where there is a 20 percent chance that maximum temperature values will exceed the 85th percentile of the climatological temperature distribution.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), valid on June 21, severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 4.24 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), up slightly from 4.00 percent on June 14.

Conditions appear more favorable during Weeks 1 and 2 for tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Pacific, as an area of anticipated upper-level divergence moves across this region. In the Atlantic basin, predicted upper-level convergence and ensuing subsidence is less favorable for tropical cyclogenesis during the Week-2 period.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.