Valid Thursday September 25, 2014 to Monday October 06, 2014
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT September 22 2014Synopsis
: High pressure is expected to
dominate most of the eastern U.S. The one exception is along the Gulf Coast
where a stationary front and easterly flow around the area of high pressure are
anticipated to lead to unsettled weather. By mid-period, an area of low
pressure is forecast to form along the front. Early in the period, upper-level
high pressure over the western U.S. is expected to be replaced by surface and
upper-level low pressure. Low pressure south of the Aleutians is forecast to
move towards the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska Panhandle. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Thursday
September 25 - Monday September 29:
- Flooding possible for parts of southeastern New Mexico and and
- Heavy rain for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Sat, Sep 27.
- Heavy rain along the eastern Gulf Coast, Sat-Sun, Sep 27-28.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest,
southern Georgia, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
A stationary front draped across the
Gulf of Mexico and just off the southeast coast is forecast to act as a
focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Most of the heavy
precipitation is expected to remain offshore but locally heavy rain is possible
along small portions of the southeast and Gulf Coasts. Low pressure is forecast
to form along the front and lead to heavy rain (1-2 inches) for parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast Sat-Sun.
Low pressure at the surface and aloft is anticipated to lead to unsettled
weather for much of the interior western CONUS Sat-Sun. Locally heavy rain
(with snow at the highest elevations) is possible, but model uncertainty
precludes the specification of a hazard area at the current time.
Low pressure south of the Aleutians is forecast to move into the Gulf of
Alaska. Heavy rain (in excess of 2 inches in 24-hours) is anticipated for parts
of the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday. Unsettled weather is expected to persist
for the area, but model uncertainty on precipitation amounts does not permit
extending the hazard area beyond Saturday.
Antecedent rainfall leads to the possibility of flooding for parts of the
Pecos River in southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Thu-Fri,
especially near the Red Bluff Reservoir.
An upper-level ridge is expected to result in maximum temperatures
averaging around 16-20 degrees F above-normal across central and eastern
Montana on Thursday. Since maximum temperatures are forecast to remain below 90
degrees F across these areas, a much-above normal temperature hazard is not
deemed necessary. For Tuesday September 30 -
Monday October 06:
A low amplitude flow pattern is expected to dominate
the CONUS during week-2. A weak trough is anticipated over the west-central
CONUS. Other than the continuation of long term drought, no hazard areas can
reliably be specified.
The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on September 16, indicates that the
percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreased below 20
percent for the first time since January 2014.
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.