Valid Thursday June 30, 2016 to Monday July 11, 2016
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT June 27 2016Synopsis
: At the beginning of the Outlook
period, a stationary front is forecast to extend eastward from the southern
Plains to the Carolinas, as a cold front moves southward across the northern
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Several days later, this cold front is
predicted to catch up to, and merge with, the stationary front. It is along
this stalled boundary that areas of heavy rain are forecast during the 3-7 day
period. In Alaska, another stalled front is predicted near the Brooks Range,
while several weak areas of low pressure are expected to bring unsettled
weather conditions to the southern Alaskan coast. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Thursday June 30 - Monday July 04:
- Locally heavy rain across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri,
Thu-Fri, June 30-July 1.
- Locally heavy rain from eastern Kansas eastward through southern Kentucky,
Sat-Sun, July 2-3.
- Locally heavy rain for portions of Virginia and North Carolina, Sat-Sun,
- Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for most of the southern half
of the Great Plains, and western portions of the Lower and Middle Mississippi
Valley, Tue-Fri, July 5-8.
- Flooding is occurring or imminent for portions of the Trinity River in far
eastern Texas, Thu-Sat, June 30-July 2.
- Severe Drought across the Central Great Basin, much of California, far
southern Arizona, the Northern High Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the southern
Appalachians, and Hawaii.
At the start of the
Hazards Outlook, a stationary front is predicted to extend from the southern
Great Plains to the Carolinas. A cold front is forecast to push south out of
Canada across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, reaching the
location of the stationary front several days thereafter. This reinforced
frontal boundary is anticipated to serve as a focus for 3 areas of locally
heavy rainfall (2-3 inches over a 2-day period) and thunderstorm activity. The
first area of predicted locally heavy rainfall includes portions of Kansas,
Oklahoma, and Missouri from June 30-July 1. The second area stretches from
eastern Kansas eastward through southern Kentucky from July 2-3. The third area
of predicted locally heavy rainfall includes portions of Virginia and North
Carolina from July 2-3.
The high-based thunderstorms that have recently affected parts of the
Southwest are consistent with the early stages of typical Monsoon evolution. As
the lower atmosphere becomes increasingly moist, rain is gradually able to
reach the ground, and increase in intensity. The latest GFS and ECMWF
deterministic model runs predict increasing amounts of precipitation in the
Southwest, resulting from the predicted availability of deeper moisture. The
GFS anticipates fairly widespread coverage of monsoonal rainfall in general,
whereas the ECMWF predicts precipitation to be more concentrated over eastern
New Mexico and West Texas. The next stage in typical monsoonal evolution
normally involves even deeper moisture moving into the Southwest, often
associated with a Gulf surge or a backdoor cold front, and the ensuing
development of heavy rainfall.
A stationary front is anticipated near the Brooks Range in northern Alaska
during this period, while several weak cyclonic systems are forecast to bring
unsettled (though non-hazardous) weather conditions to the southern Alaskan
For Tuesday July 05 - Monday July 11:
The Probabilistic Extremes Outlook
(PEO) tool favors a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for most of
the southern half of the Great Plains, and western portions of the Lower and
Middle Mississippi Valley, July 5-8. This area depicts where there is a 20
percent chance that maximum temperature values will exceed the 85th percentile
of the climatological temperature distribution.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), valid on June 21, severe, or
greater intensity, drought covers 4.24 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor
areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), up slightly from 4.00
percent on June 14.
Conditions appear more favorable during Weeks 1 and 2 for tropical
cyclogenesis over the eastern Pacific, as an area of anticipated upper-level
divergence moves across this region. In the Atlantic basin, predicted
upper-level convergence and ensuing subsidence is less favorable for tropical
cyclogenesis during the Week-2 period.
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.