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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made September 22, 2014

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday September 25, 2014 to Monday October 06, 2014

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 22 2014

Synopsis: High pressure is expected to dominate most of the eastern U.S. The one exception is along the Gulf Coast where a stationary front and easterly flow around the area of high pressure are anticipated to lead to unsettled weather. By mid-period, an area of low pressure is forecast to form along the front. Early in the period, upper-level high pressure over the western U.S. is expected to be replaced by surface and upper-level low pressure. Low pressure south of the Aleutians is forecast to move towards the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska Panhandle.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday September 25 - Monday September 29: A stationary front draped across the Gulf of Mexico and just off the southeast coast is forecast to act as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Most of the heavy precipitation is expected to remain offshore but locally heavy rain is possible along small portions of the southeast and Gulf Coasts. Low pressure is forecast to form along the front and lead to heavy rain (1-2 inches) for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sat-Sun.

Low pressure at the surface and aloft is anticipated to lead to unsettled weather for much of the interior western CONUS Sat-Sun. Locally heavy rain (with snow at the highest elevations) is possible, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard area at the current time.

Low pressure south of the Aleutians is forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska. Heavy rain (in excess of 2 inches in 24-hours) is anticipated for parts of the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday. Unsettled weather is expected to persist for the area, but model uncertainty on precipitation amounts does not permit extending the hazard area beyond Saturday.

Antecedent rainfall leads to the possibility of flooding for parts of the Pecos River in southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Thu-Fri, especially near the Red Bluff Reservoir.

An upper-level ridge is expected to result in maximum temperatures averaging around 16-20 degrees F above-normal across central and eastern Montana on Thursday. Since maximum temperatures are forecast to remain below 90 degrees F across these areas, a much-above normal temperature hazard is not deemed necessary.

For Tuesday September 30 - Monday October 06: A low amplitude flow pattern is expected to dominate the CONUS during week-2. A weak trough is anticipated over the west-central CONUS. Other than the continuation of long term drought, no hazard areas can reliably be specified.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on September 16, indicates that the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreased below 20 percent for the first time since January 2014.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.