Valid Monday February 02, 2015 to Friday February 13, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EST January 30 2015Synopsis
: On Monday, a low pressure system is
forecast to exit the Northeast. A strong surface high is expected to build into
the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, while another surface high shifts south from
Canada into the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. An area of upper-level low
pressure is forecast to track from northern Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico early
in the period. An area of upper-level high pressure is forecast to remain
centered over California during the next ten days, while the Pacific Northwest
experiences onshore flow. A strong surface high is forecast to shift east from
the Bering Strait and become centered over Alaska by mid-week.
Summary For Monday February 02 - Friday February
- Heavy snow for parts of the Northeast, Mon, Feb
- Heavy rain for parts of the Southeast, Tue-Wed, Feb 3-4.
- Much below-normal temperatures across the northern Great Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Mon-Wed, Feb 2-4.
- Periods of much below-normal temperatures across the eastern Great Lakes,
Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, Tue-Fri, Feb 3-6.
- High winds for the northeast Gulf Coast of Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle,
Mon, Feb 2.
- A moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for the Northeast, Sat,
- A slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for the eastern U.S. and
Gulf Coast, Sat-Sun, Feb 7-8.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Great
Basin, California, and the Pacific Northwest.
As of January 30, 0Z/6Z high resolution models indicate a low pressure
system tracking across the mid-Atlantic on Sunday night and then potentially
intensifying as it moves offshore of the Northeast on Monday morning. Moderate
to heavy snow is expected to the north of its track from Sunday night into
Monday. Uncertainty continues on the strength/track of the surface low and
associated precipitation amounts/types since the northern stream shortwave
trough is currently entering western Canada. The risk of moderate to heavy snow
(5 inches or more) on Sunday night into Monday is highest from central
Pennsylvania northeast to New England. The 6Z GFS and 0Z ECMWF ensemble means
on January 30 have around 0.50 inches (liquid equivalent) across these areas.
Please refer to the latest statements this weekend from local NWS offices.
The upper-level trough that shifts south into Mexico during the weekend is
forecast by the high resolution models to enter the northern Gulf of Mexico
early in the period and possibly spawn a surface low along the Gulf Coast by
Wednesday. Regardless of surface low development, heavy rain (1-2 inches, or
more) is predicted for the Florida Panhandle, northern Florida peninsula, and
southeast Georgia on February 3 and 4. Severe thunderstorms may also develop
across the Florida peninsula, but model differences on the amplitude of the
trough preclude designation of a severe weather hazard at this time. Future
forecasts of this upper-level trough and the potential for surface low
development along the Gulf Coast should be monitored closely as it has the
potential to bring snow to the mid-Atlantic by Thursday.
On Tuesday morning, a surface high is forecast over the Northeast where
minimum temperatures below zero are predicted. Another strong surface high is
expected to shift south from Canada and build east across the Great Lakes and
Northeast later in the week. Periods of much-below normal temperatures (12
degrees F or more) are likely across the northern Great Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast from February 2-6.
An increase in precipitation is forecast across the Pacific Northwest where
locally heavy rain is possible across coastal Washington. Snow levels are
expected to be relatively high for the Cascades. Rainfall and snowfall amounts
are not expected to reach hazards criteria at this time.
A tight pressure gradient is expected to result in high winds for the
interior mountains of the Alaska Panhandle and northeast Gulf Coast near
Yakutat on Monday. The GEFS model indicates surface temperatures in the lowest
20th percentile across western and southwestern Alaska from Thursday to
Saturday. Model outputs and trends will need to be monitored to see if
certainty about the intensity of the cold increases beyond hazardous
thresholds. For Saturday February 07 -
Friday February 13:
Early in Week-2, an amplified trough supports a slight
to moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures across the eastern U.S. The
longwave pattern depicted by the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means favor
above-median precipitation across the Pacific Northwest with relatively dry
conditions persisting across southern California. Precipitation amounts across
northern California are more uncertain as model solutions vary on how far south
the onshore flow extends.
The most recent U.S. drought monitor, valid on January 27, 2015 indicates a
very slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2
to D4) from 16.97 to 16.83 percent across the continental U.S. 40 percent of
California remains designated in the exceptional drought category.
Forecaster: Brad Pugh
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.