Valid Monday October 12, 2015 to Friday October 23, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 09 2015Synopsis
: An upper-level low-pressure area is
forecast to shift westward over northwest Mexico, spreading some precipitation
across the Southwest with upper-level high pressure over the Rockies. A surface
Low is expected to form near the Southeast coast early in the period, before
tracking towards the northeast and farther offshore. Several cold fronts are
predicted to move across the central and eastern lower 48 states. Migratory low
pressure systems are predicted to maintain inclement conditions across the
southern coast of Alaska. During the first few days of the Week 2 period, most
model runs agree that relatively cooler air may overspread the Great Lakes
region, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic region. Hazards
Summary For Monday October 12 - Friday October
winds for the central and northern Plains, upper half of the Mississippi
Valley, and western and central Great Lakes region, Mon, Oct 12.
- High winds for the southern half of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon, Oct 12.
- Flooding ongoing in the Carolinas, Mon-Tue, Oct 12-13.
- High waves for most of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon, Oct 12.
- Severe drought for parts of the western third of the CONUS, Lower
Mississippi Valley, Oklahoma, and Texas.
A storm system is predicted to track across central and eastern Canada
early in the period. Its trailing cold front is expected to bring high winds to
parts of the central and northern Plains, the upper half of the Mississippi
Valley, and the western and central Great Lakes region as it sweeps across the
central and eastern CONUS. This area may experience sustained wind speeds
reaching 30 knots or greater.
Flooding is forecast to continue across the Carolinas. Some of these
rivers, such as the Waccamaw River (Conway, SC) and the Edisto River (Givhans
Ferry, SC), are predicted to be in major flood stage at the start of this
period, with a gradual decline through moderate stage thereafter. Please
consult the latest river stage information from the Southeast River Forecast
Center at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc.
An active weather period is forecast for the southern coast of Alaska, in
particular the Panhandle region. High winds (40-45 knots) and high waves
(significant wave heights up to 27 feet) are anticipated on Monday, October
12th. Later in the week, however, there are significant differences between the
deterministic ECMWF and GFS model runs, precluding the specification of any
hazards on the map. For Saturday October 17 - Friday
In general, the predicted mid-tropospheric height pattern for
week 2 favors a weak ridge over western North America, and a weak trough across
eastern North America. The anticipated pattern favors lowering 500-hPa heights
and cooler temperatures across the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and
mid-Atlantic region. The probabilistic temperature tool supports a slight risk
(20 percent chance) of minimum temperatures falling into the lowest 20 percent
of the historical distribution across this area. Other than long-term drought,
no specific hazards can be confidently predicted at this time.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, issued on October 8, the
coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) increased from 20.09 to
21.45 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.