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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made March 27, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday March 30, 2015 to Friday April 10, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 27 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, cold surface high pressure is expected over the eastern lower 48 states. Surface low pressure is forecast to move along the central and eastern U.S./Canadian border as its associated cold front progresses across the central and eastern U.S. A frontal system is anticipated to approach the northwestern part of the nation. Surface low pressure is forecast near the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska. By mid-period, another area of low pressure is expected to cross the Great Lakes.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday March 30 - Friday April 03: This forecast period is expected to begin with low pressure moving eastward across southeastern Canada. While no precipitation hazards are expected with this system, it is predicted to have a strong pressure gradient around its center, leading to high winds for portions of the mid-Atlantic and New England on the 30th and 31st.

In the Pacific Northwest, a system is expected to move onshore spreading rain and high elevation snow to the coastal ranges of Washington State and the Bitterroot Mountains in Idaho. While this precipitation is forecast to be significant, it is not expected to reach hazardous criteria. As the low pressure moves to the lee of the Rockies, it is predicted to strengthen, bringing high winds from the eastern Montana to the Great Lakes from the 1st through the 3rd. Also, localized heavy rain and severe weather is possible almost everywhere east of the Mississippi River in advance of the storm's cold front.

Upper-level energy that is expected to move from the eastern Pacific into the Southwest and then Texas, is forecast to help focus heavy precipitation along the southern edge of the cold front in Texas on the 1st and 2nd. At this time, there is no hazard designated due to uncertainty in QPF amounts, but many model solutions give heavy rain (at least 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of eastern Texas, and Louisiana.

For Saturday April 04 - Friday April 10: Numerical model solutions are calling for the pattern at the beginning of this period to be mostly zonal over the CONUS, before hinting at the development of an upper-level trough in the west and a ridge in the East. This pattern would favor below normal temperatures in locations west of the Rockies, and above normal temperatures east of the Mississippi.

In addition, some models forecast an upper-level low to sit over the Bering Sea for most of this period. This low supports multiple low pressure systems impacting the southern and southeastern coasts of the state. If this solution were to verify, a prolonged period of heavy rain, high winds, and significant waves is likely for these areas.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24, indicates a very slight increase (16.24 to 16.97) in the percentage of land in severe drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman


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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.