Valid Friday May 29, 2015 to Tuesday June 09, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT May 26 2015Synopsis
: At the start of the period, upper-level
high pressure is anticipated over the northwestern part of the nation. Areas of
surface low pressure are forecast along a frontal complex expected over the
central part of the country. The frontal system is anticipated to move slowly
southeastward before stalling near the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys by June 2.
Another area of low pressure is forecast over the northern Rockies June 1. Low
pressure anticpated over the Bering Sea early in the period is expected to
weaken. An area of disturbed weather south of the Mexican coast is forecast to
track towards the west-northwest.
Detailed Summary For Friday May 29 -
Tuesday June 02:
- Much above normal temperatures for central
and eastern parts of Washington and Oregon, and southern and western parts of
Idaho, Fri-Sun, May 29-31.
- Heavy rain for parts of the southern and central Plains, Mississippi
Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley, Fri-Sat, May 29-30.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic, and northeast, Sun-Mon, May 31-Jun 1.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Northern Rockies, Mon, Jun 1.
- Enhanced wildfire risk for interior eastern Alaska, Fri-Tue, May 29-Jun 2.
- Flooding is possible, imminent, or occurring across portions of the central
and west-central CONUS.
- Severe drought for parts of the northern, central, and southern Great
Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, and the Pacific Northwest.
An upper-level ridge is expected to lead to much above
normal temperatures (positive anomalies of 12-16 degrees F) for central and
eastern parts of Washington and Oregon, and southern and western parts of Idaho
May 29-31. Maximum temperatures near 90 degrees F are expected for parts of
At the start of the period a frontal system is forecast over the central
CONUS. Weak areas of low pressure are expected to propagate northeastward along
the frontal system. This is anticipated to lead to heavy rain (in excess of 1
inch in 24 hours) for parts of the southern and central Plains, Mississippi
Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley May 29-30. As the frontal system moves
slowly southeastward, heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is forecast
for parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalchians, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast
May 31-Jun 1. Thunderstorms are likley during the period over these regions but
model uncertainty precludes the specification of a severe weather hazard at the
Low pressure over the Northern Rockies leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1
inch in 24 hours) for parts of the region June 1.
In the eastern interior of Alaska, continued warm, dry, and breezy
conditions favor a significantly increased chance of critical wildfire
conditions throughout this period.
Numerous areas of possible, likely, imminent, and occurring flooding are
indicated over the central and west-central portions of the CONUS, with all the
heavy rain received in recent days and weeks. To obtain the very latest,
detailed information on the status of streams and rivers across the U.S.,
please consult the River Forecast Center (RFC) homepage at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php. For Wednesday June 03 - Tuesday
The expected mid-tropospheric flow pattern for Week-2 features
basically zonal flow across the northern half of the CONUS. Significant
positive height anomalies at 500-hPa (ranging from +60 to +110 meters) are
forecast across the Northeast, and are expected to coincide with above normal
surface temperatures during this period for that region.
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released May 21st, indicates a
substantial decrease (from 17.68 to 15.16) in the percentage of the CONUS in
severe to exceptional drought (D2-D4).
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.