Valid Sunday August 28, 2016 to Thursday September 08, 2016
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT August 25 2016Synopsis
: At the start of the period, a
tropical disturbance is expected to be near southern Florida. This system is
currently anticipated to drift slowly westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
then drift northward towards the east/central Gulf Coast and the southeast
U.S.. Surface high pressure over Maine on Aug 28 is forecast to move eastward
into the North Atlantic. At the same time, a warm front is expected to move
northward across the northern Plains. Surface low pressure near the Alaska
Panhandle during the period is forecast to bring unsettled weather to the
Detailed Summary For Sunday August
28 - Thursday September 01:
- Heavy rain for parts of southern
Florida, Sun-Mon, Aug 28-29.
- Heavy rain for parts of the southeast, Wed-Thu, Aug 31-Sep 1.
- Much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Plains, Sun-Mon,
- Much above normal temperatures for parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes,
northeast, and Central Appalachians, Sun Aug 28.
- Flooding possible, occurring or imminent across portions of the Great Lakes
and the Mississippi Valley.
- Slight chance of much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern
and Central Plains, Fri, Sep 2.
- Severe Drought across parts of the eastern U.S., Great Plains, northern
Rockies, Great Basin, Arizona, California, eastern Oregon, and Hawaii.
Early in the period a tropical disturbance is
forecast to approach southern Florida. The disturbance is expected to drift
westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Aug 30, then northward towards the
east/central Gulf Coast by Sep 1. This leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch
in 24 hours) for parts of southern Florida Aug 28-29, and for parts of the
southeast Aug 31-Sep 1. The exact track and strength of the tropical
disturbance are highly uncertain at this time and additional impacts (flooding,
isolated tornadoes, high winds, significant waves, beach erosion etc.) are
possible for parts of the southeast and Gulf coast. In addition, parts of
Louisiana are currently experiencing flooding so that additional heavy rainfall
would extend and exacerbate flooding concerns, although the heaviest rain is
currently expected to fall to the east of where the most serious flooding is
occurring. Please consult the latest advisories from the National Hurricane
Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
Southerly flow around the west side of high pressure centered over the
northeast leads to much above normal temperatures (positive anomalies of 10-12
degrees F) for parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northeast, and Central
Appalachians Aug 28.
At the start of the period a frontal system stretching across much of the
central CONUS is expected to move northward as a warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system are forecast over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Aug 28. Rainfall amounts may be locally heavy over
portions of these regions. Much above normal temperatures (positive temperature
anomalies of 10-15 degrees F) are anticipated for parts of the Northern Plains
Antecedent rainfall, in combination with additional rainfall expected
during the period leads to flooding possible, imminent, or occurring across
portions of the Great Lakes and the Mississippi Valley.
Despite dry fuels over much of the western CONUS, wind speeds are forecast
to lessen so that critical fire weather conditions are not currently
anticipated early in the period. Later in the period, model uncertainty is too
large to specify a hazard shape. For Friday September 02 -
Thursday September 08:
During week-2 the circulation pattern is expected
to feature a trough over the western CONUS and zonal flow across much of the
north-central part of the nation. This circulation pattern favors below normal
temperatures over the western CONUS, and a slight chance of much above normal
temperatures for parts of the Northern and Central Plains Sep 2.
The tropical disturbance currently north of Haiti may be impacting parts of
the southeast and Mid-Atlantic early in the period but model uncertainty
precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time. The Atlantic
is showing increased tropical activity and this evolution will need to be
monitored. Please consult the latest advisories from the National Hurricane
Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the coverage of severe or greater
drought decreased slightly to 7.41 percent from 7.71 percent. Improvements were
realized across central Texas and the Tennessee Valley.
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.