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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made January 20, 2017

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
Temperature
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Monday January 23, 2017 to Friday February 03, 2017

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST January 20 2017

Synopsis: A series of surface lows are predicted to traverse the CONUS during the beginning half of the 3 to 7 day period. A storm system is anticipated to bring unsettled weather to parts of the West Coast at the beginning of the period. Surface high pressure is anticipated to build across much of the U.S. later in the 3 to 7 day period in the wake of these surface lows. Surface low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf of Alaska, tracking northeastward to the South Coast of Alaska during the 3 to 7 day period.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday January 23 - Friday January 27: Surface low pressure is predicted to develop over the Mid-Atlantic at the beginning of the period and track northeastward. This surface low and its associated fronts ahead of the system are anticipated to bring heavy snow to parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Jan 23. As this tracks to the Northeast, parts of Maine may receive heavy snow on Jan 23. These highlighted areas may receive up to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period.

A strong storm system is forecast to impact the West Coast on Jan 23. Strong onshore flow associated with this storm may bring high significant wave heights (30 feet or greater) for coastal parts of California on Jan 23.

Surface low pressure is expected to form over the Central Great Basin. Its trailing cold front and surface trough ahead of the low may bring heavy snow to portions of the Central Rockies, the Southern Rockies, and the Southwest on Jan 23. As this low intensifies and tracks northeastward, parts of the Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains may also receive heavy snow on Jan 24. These regions may receive an inch of liquid equivalent or greater in a 24-hour period. This storm may also bring high winds (30 knots or greater) to parts of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Jan 23-24. High sustained winds in addition to continued dry atmospheric conditions and dry fuels enhances the potential for wildfire risk in some areas. The Storm Prediction Center has delineated a 40% chance of enhanced wildfire risk due to atmospheric conditions for parts of the Southern High Plains and South Texas Plains on Jan 23 and parts of the Southern Plains on Jan 24. Interests and locals in these areas should monitor updated fire weather forecasts at www.spc.noaa.gov.

Cold surface high pressure is expected to build across many parts of the western half of the CONUS by Jan 25, as the series of surface lows in the area migrates eastward. This pattern favors much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Jan 25 to 27.

Surface low pressure is forecast to form South of the Aleutians at the beginning of the period, tracking northeastward to the South Coast of Alaska by Jan 24. This storm and its associated fronts may bring high winds (40 knots or greater) to parts of the Alaska Panhandle, South Coast of Alaska, and the Aleutians, Jan 23-24, high significant wave heights (30 feet or greater) for coastal parts of the western Aleutians Jan 23, and heavy rain and snow (3 inches of liquid equivalent in 24-hours) to parts of the Alaska Panhandle and Southeast mainland Alaska, Jan 24 to 27. Surface high pressure is expected to develop across much of central and northern mainland Alaska, supporting increased chances for much below normal temperatures (32 degrees F below normal) across portions of central and western mainland Alaska Jan 23.

For Saturday January 28 - Friday February 03: Surface high pressure is forecast to continue to build across the western half of the CONUS, bringing cold, Arctic air into the area from Canada. There is a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for inland areas across the western third of the CONUS, Jan 28 to Feb 1. A smaller embedded area of moderate risk is highlighted for Jan 28 to 31, and a high risk area across parts of the Central Great Basin, the Central Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Jan 28 to 30. An area is highlighted for a slight risk of much below normal temperatures across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Jan 30 to Feb 2. These highlighted areas show elevated chances for minimum temperatures reaching the lowest 15th percentile.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on January 17, the coverage of severe or greater drought for the CONUS decreased from 7.96 to 6.77%. One category improvements were made to the drought areas across parts of California and the Central and Southern Plains from the previous week.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.