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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made November 25, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Probabilistic Outlooks (Description)

Valid Saturday November 28, 2015 to Wednesday December 09, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 25 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure over the southern Plains will move slowly east/northeastward to the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Arctic high pressure is expected over the western and central portions of the lower 48 states through the end of November. Surface low pressure near the Aleutians is anticipated to move to the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday November 28 - Wednesday December 02: Low pressure and its associated frontal system over the southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley are expected to act as a focusing mechanism for precipitation. Heavy rain (in excess of 2 inches in 24 hours) is anticipated for parts of the southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys, and Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Nov 28. Behind the front, a cold air mass will surge southward along the Front Range into the southern High Plains and eastward toward the Great Lakes. hazardous wintry precipitation is forecast for parts of the central and southern High Plains Saturday. At this time, the most hazardous weather is expected in the form of freezing rain and sleet, centered on the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. North and west of the depicted hazard, some accumulating snow is likely, but amounts are not expected to reach hazardous criteria. Wintry precipitation may propagate northeastward of the depicted freezing rain/sleet hazard for Saturday towards the Middle Mississippi Valleys and Great Lakes on Sunday, but model uncertainty precludes expanding the hazard area at the current time.

The area of arctic high pressure expected over the western and central CONUS leads to much below-normal temperatures for parts of the northern Intermountain west, central Great Basin, and northern and central Rockies Nov 28-30. Minimum temperatures of 12-20 degrees F below normal are forecast for the central and northern parts of the depicted hazard region.

The combination of snow melt and additional precipitation prior and during the period leads to likely or possible river flooding over parts of the central and southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and southern Great Lakes.

Very active weather is forecast for southern Alaska during the period, and the latest guidance suggests that a heavy precipitation hazard is prudent for parts of the southeastern coast and Alaska Panhandle. Liquid amounts in excess of 4 inches in 48 hours are likely within the depicted hazard. Snowfall in excess of 8 inches in 24 hours is possible at higher elevations.

For Thursday December 03 - Wednesday December 09: During week 2, an upper-level ridge is anticipated over the western CONUS, while a weak trough is expected over the south-central and east-central parts of the nation. Model run to run consistency is relatively poor so no hazard shapes can be reliably be specified at the current time.

The most recent U.S. drought monitor, released on November 19, indicates a slight decrease in the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4), from 15.24 to 14.88.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.