Valid Monday, July 28, 2014 to Friday, August 08, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 25 2014

Synopsis: At the beginning of the period, a slow moving frontal system and area of upper-level low pressure are anticipated over the eastern part of the nation. The front is forecast to stall along the Gulf Coast and southern Plains. Surface low pressure is expected to remain nearly stationary over the Gulf of Alaska as surface high pressure builds over the northern part of the state. Strong upper-level high pressure is forecast to build over the northwest U.S. and persist into the week 2 period.

Hazards

• Severe weather possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, Mon, Jul 28.
• Heavy rain for parts of the Central Rockies and Central and Southern Plains, Mon-Thu, Jul 28-31.
• Heavy rain for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon-Tue, Jul 28-29.
• Much above normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West and Northern Rockies, Mon-Sun, Jul 28-Aug 3.
• Flooding occurring or imminent for parts of North Dakota.
• Severe drought for parts of the Great Plains, Southwest, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.

Detailed Summary

For Monday July 28 - Friday August 01: An upper-level trough and frontal system are expected to bring unsettled weather to much of the eastern and south-central CONUS during the period. Severe weather is possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Monday.
The frontal system is expected to stall near the Gulf Coast and southern Plains. This, in combination with monsoonal moisture, is anticipated to cause heavy rain (1-2.5 inches) for parts of the central Rockies and central and southern Plains Mon-Thu. Severe thunderstorms and localized flooding are possible due to the heavy rain but model uncertainty precludes the specification of related hazard areas at this time.

A ridge is forecast to amplify over the northwest conus during the period. This is expected to lead to much above normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies Mon-Fri. Temperatures in the region are expected to reach 95-100+ degrees F. This is of particular concern since numerous wildfires are burning across the Pacific Northwest and Idaho. Smoke from these wildfires is likely to reduce air quality.

Flooding is expected to persist along the Souris River in North Dakota.

An upper-level trough is forecast to result in an active pattern across mainland Alaska. Surface low pressure anticipated over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to lead to heavy rain (1-2 inches) for parts of the Alaska Panhandle Mon-Tue. Other areas of mainland Alaska may experience heavy rain and convection, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of additional hazard areas.

Tropical activity over the eastern Pacific will need to be monitored for possible impacts over Hawaii.

For Saturday August 02 - Friday August 08: Upper level ridging is forecast to prolong much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies Sat-Sun.

Based on the latest Drought Monitor valid on July 22, severe to exceptional drought continued to decrease and now covers 23.9 percent of the continental U.S.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.