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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made March 27, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

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Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Thursday April 04, 2024 to Wednesday April 10, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 27 2024

Synopsis: An area of departing surface low pressure across the northeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) may bring periods of high winds and heavy snow to portions of the Northeast at the start of the week-2 period. Meanwhile, a digging trough and associated lee-side cyclogenesis will bring chances for heavy snow to parts of the northern and central Plains and Rocky Mountains. More broadly, periods of high winds may occur in conjunction with the robust trough and a series of surface lows across the West.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday March 30 - Wednesday April 03: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Thursday April 04 - Wednesday April 10: Mid-level troughing and associated surface low-pressure will be progressing northeast over the Northeast at end of week-1 and into early week-2. Models are in fair agreement with this system bringing chances for high winds to much of the northeastern CONUS. The GEFS and ECENS have many members forecasting the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) to fall towards 990mb. Along the northern side of this system and across the higher elevations of the interior Northeast, a period of heavy snow may occur as well as the low-pressure pulls in colder air from Canada. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy snow and high winds is posted for Apr 4-5 for portions of the interior Northeast and the broader northeastern CONUS respectively.

A slight risk of episodic high winds is designated for the Great Plains, Interior West and portions of the Four Corners, Apr 4-10, associated with a digging mid-level trough and a series of surface lows potentially forming over the Interior West. The ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph (25 mph, locally) across the highlighted risk area. The GEFS PET indicates these thresholds for Nevada and the Southwest. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) indicates low to moderate fire potential across parts of the eastern Four Corners region and Central and Southern Plains by the end of week-1. Little to no precipitation anticipated during week-1 combined with increased high wind risk during week-2 may support enhanced wildfire risk in these regions. There is, however, above normal precipitation anticipated across this region albeit low probabilities, decreasing the certainty for potential wildfire risk. Localized areas may have higher risk of wildfires depending on where precipitation occurs during week-2.

The digging mid-level trough and cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies increases chances for heavy snow across portions of the Plains and Rockies. The GEFS Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) PET indicates chances for SWE to exceed the 85th climatological percentile across portions of the Plains. Meanwhile, the ECENS PET indicates precipitation to exceed the 85th percentile across a broad area in the north-central CONUS. Correspondingly, the raw ECENS indicates 30-40% chances for snow to exceed four inches across this region during the early to middle of the period. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the northern and central Rockies and Plains for April 4-7.

In the southeastern CONUS, early in the period, briefly colder temperatures (falling below the 15th climatological percentile) are forecast by the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools. The most anomalously cold temperatures are forecast to be along the Gulf Coast states. However, these temperatures are likely to fall only to around 40 deg F. Further North, chances for a freeze are not forecast by the dynamical models until the Ohio River Valley. In these areas, the Midwest Regional Climate Center (MRCC) is indicating there is only mixed susceptibility for vegetation and more than a month until the median last freeze. Recent cooler temperatures have likely slowed the progression of spring in these regions as well. Therefore, no corresponding much-below normal temperature hazard is posted. Following the initial cold snap across the Southeast, return flow off the Gulf of Mexico may develop. The ECENS is the strongest and fastest to develop this potential and brings chances for heavy precipitation (exceeding the 85th percentile) into the Southeast by the middle of the period. The GEFS PET is not supportive of this solution, with limited chances for exceeding the 85th climatological percentile in the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Therefore, no corresponding heavy precipitation shape is posted today but the pattern bears watching in the coming days.

For Alaska, the mean mid-level pattern is forecast to be fairly zonal, with potentially positive 500 hPa height departures across the southern half of the state. There is multi-model depiction of a series of surface lows forming over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, although these are not expected to lead to widespread hazardous conditions.

Forecaster: Ryan Bolt

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts