Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook
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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 29 Dec 2018 to 11 Jan 2019
Updated: 14 Dec 2018

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Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Dec 29 2018-Fri Jan 11 2019

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The RMM MJO index indicates that the MJO continued propagating eastward and over the Indian Ocean during the last week. The GEFS forecast of the RMM index depicts continued eastward propagation of the current MJO event over the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, the ECMWF, and the JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern for Week-2.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific. Dynamical model ensembles from the CFS and ECMWF for Week 3-4 depict near or below normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska and the U.S. West coast, while above normal 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over much of the remainder of the forecast domain. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA indicates above-normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii.

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures over southeastern Alaska, along with the northern and eastern half of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities across the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys, and the Middle Atlantic area, supported by dynamical model forecasts. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for southeastern New Mexico and parts of the Southern Plains, consistent with the SubX guidance.

The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-median precipitation for much of the East Coast, the Gulf Coast region, the southeastern Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle, consistent with the SubX guidance. The CFS, ECMWF and JMA correlation weighted precipitation forecast tool favors above-median rainfall over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Below-median precipitation is more likely for western mainland Alaska, southern California, Arizona, and western New Mexico, supported by most of the dynamical model forecasts.

Sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of Hawaii remain weakly above-normal, and the bulk of dynamical model guidance, including the experimental SubX models, depict enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures, especially over the southeastern islands. Dynamical model precipitation forecasts generally favor below-median rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands.







Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A70 B55
Kahului A70 B55
Honolulu A60 B55
Lihue A55 B55


Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Dec 21, 2018

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.



The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.



As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental



An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

Related Topics

6 to 10 Day Outlooks
8 to 14 Day Outlooks
30-day Outlooks
90-day Outlooks
 
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Page last modified: Nov 08 2017
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