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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 30 Jun 2018 to 13 Jul 2018
Updated: 15 Jun 2018

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jun 30 2018-Fri Jul 13 2018

The MJO is in an inactive state this week although dynamical guidance suggests that it could re-emerge around the end of next week. Although direct impacts are not expected, a substantial MJO event would enhance confidence in the forecast for the Northwest CONUS. A convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave is traversing the Pacific ocean and the CFS forecasts Kelvin wave activity to continue over the next few weeks. Persistent wave activity can lead to enhanced moisture throughout the Southwest CONUS and below normal temperatures.

Forecast guidance this week is difficult to interpret over the Northwest. Most of our model guidance, including the CFS, JMA, and most of the SubX models indicate that the prominent ridging currently over the Northwest CONUS will continue through Weeks-3 and -4. This scenario would lead to anomalously warm temperatures underneath the ridge. However, the ECMWF model forecasts the ridge to weaken and retrograde west during Week-3, causing temperatures to be closer to their climatological average over the Northwest and above normal over Alaska. There have been a number of shortwaves moving through the ridge lately and more are forecast over the next couple of weeks. This lends confidence that the ridge will break down during Week-3, so we have sided with the ECMWF solution of equal chances of above and below normal temperatures for the Northwest and above average temperatures over Alaska for this forecast.

Models are in good agreement that above normal temperatures are expected in most of California and western Nevada, and east of the Rockies due to ridging that sets up over the eastern half of the CONUS. Tropical flows are expected in the Four Corners region and Southeast as tropical wave activity intensifies during the forecast period and precipitation in those areas is forecast to be above normal. Dynamical guidance throughout the week has consistently forecast slight ridging over Texas, which is likely to cause below normal precipitation during Weeks 3-4.

Dynamical models are forecasting a northern movement of the ITCZ during Weeks 3-4 over the Central Pacific. This is also supported by anomalously warm SSTs in the region. Therefore, our forecast is for anomalously wet and warm conditions over Hawaii during the forecast period.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A55 A55
Kahului A55 A55
Honolulu A55 A55
Lihue A55 A55

Forecaster: Kyle MacRitchie

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jun 22, 2018

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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Page last modified: Nov 08 2017
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