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Week 3-4 outlooks are experimental at this time, and are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 04 Mar 2017 to 17 Mar 2017
Updated: 17 Feb 2017

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Temperature Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 04 2017-Fri Mar 17 2017

ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean, while above average SSTs are in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The RMM-based MJO index indicated a robust eastward propagation of a MJO signal across the Western Pacific into the Western Hemisphere during the last couple of days. During the next two weeks, the GEFS depicts continued eastward propagation with reduction in amplitude over the western Hemisphere. The MJO is anticipated to influence the evolution of the global tropical convective pattern during the next several weeks. In addition to this anticipated evolution of the global tropical convective pattern, dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, statistical tools, long term trends, and consistent evolution from the Week-2 forecast were considered for this Week 3-4 outlook.

Dynamical model guidance for the Week 3-4 period is generally in good agreement among the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA solutions, depicting a trough over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge over the western CONUS and Alaska. The forecast height anomaly patterns exhibit some differences among the tools, however. The CFS and ECMWF ensemble mean forecasts depict below-normal 500-hPa heights over parts of the Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Northwest, while the JMA ensemble mean only shows below- normal 500-hpa heights over the Northeast. All dynamical models indicate positive 500-hPa height anomalies over Western CONUS, Alaska, and Florida. The ECMWF and JMA ensemble mean forecasts also predict positive 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii.

Above-normal 500-hPa heights and ridging lead to enhanced probabilities for near to above normal temperatures over Florida, most of the western CONUS, and Alaska, with the highest probabilities over California and western Alaska. This pattern is also supported by dynamical model temperature guidance tools (CFS, ECMWF and JMA). Below-normal 500-hPa heights and trough enhance probabilities for below-normal temperatures for parts of the Great Plains, and most of the northeastern CONUS.

There are enhanced probabilities for near- to above-median precipitation for most of the southeastern CONUS in association with a trough forecast near the eastern CONUS. Below-median precipitation is favored over California downstream of forecast anomalous ridging. Dynamical guidance (CFS and ECMWF) predicts below-median precipitation over the Great Lakes, and southwestern Alaska, with above-median precipitation over Montana.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii due to persistent anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and positive 500-hpa height anomalies across the region. Dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA favors below-median precipitation for Kahului and Honolulu.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A55 EC
Kahului A55 B40
Honolulu A55 B40
Lihue A55 EC

Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Feb 24, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are experimental two category outlooks and differ from official operational current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

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