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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 03 Jun 2017 to 16 Jun 2017
Updated: 19 May 2017

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jun 03 2017-Fri Jun 16 2017

Some of modes of variability at higher latitudes such as the AO and NAO have switched from primarily a positive phase for several months during the winter and spring to more of a tendency for the negative phase during late April and May. Positive height departures at higher latitudes and more of a tendency for more potent mid-latitudes troughs and colder air intrusions has been a likely result in recent weeks. Prior to this outlook period, during Week-2, this is evident in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and specifically across the CONUS, where a substantial trough and favored below normal temperatures are anticipated for much of the central and eastern CONUS. Other troughs are favored as well for areas of the North Pacific and Northeast Atlantic.

Forcing from the Tropics, in the context of the MJO is not anticipated to be a clear, important factor in the upcoming outlook. Not only do teleconnections to the higher latitudes weaken as we leave April and enter the warmer seasons, dynamical RMM forecasts are highly variable with considerable spread for whether any coherent, usable intraseasonal signal may emerge in the coming couple of weeks. Moreover, statistical forecast guidance keying on ENSO and the MJO offer no signal and predictions from the constructed analogue forecast tool based on 200-hPa streamfunction are completely out of phase from available dynamical model guidance.

The Week 3-4 outlook this week is primarily based on dynamical model guidance, longer term trends and soil moisture considerations. This week, the forecast guidance from the CFS, ECMWF and JMA extended run systems are in quite good agreement, especially for this time of the year. The mean forecast circulation favored overall during the two week period depicts anomalous troughing in the North Pacific, east central CONUS/eastern North America and anomalous ridging most likely for the Pacific Northwest and Southwest Canada. There are subtle differences across the models in this overall structure, but the consistency is reasonably high and is generally persistent from Week-2, at first order.

Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts support an enhanced likelihood of below normal temperatures for a region across the central portion of the CONUS with the greatest probabilities located in the central Plains where there is some overlap with above normal soil moisture and the anticipation of above average precipitation during the forecast period. Above normal temperatures are favored around the periphery of this area to include areas of the extreme eastern seaboard, Gulf Coast, Southwest and Pacific Northwest (the region of largest odds). Above normal temperatures are also most likely for much of Alaska during the period.

For precipitation, the anticipated mean frontal zone and area of most active weather, consistent with the overall mean forecast circulation pattern, is favored to encompass a region from the central Rockies, across the south central Plains to the southern Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley. The greatest odds are depicted across the south central Mississippi Valley and Great Plains at the base of the forecast mean trough and where calibrated precipitation forecasts and multi-model combination forecast tools indicate the most consistent and strongest signals. The odds for below average precipitation are elevated for parts of the Pacific Northwest, some areas of the northern Plains, upper-Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes in proximity to or downstream of ridging. There is a tilt in the odds for above-average precipitation due to troughing in close proximity to southern portions of Alaska.

Anomalously warm SSTs continue to persist around Hawaii, and this pattern is anticipated to continue into the Week 3-4 period. Therefore, above-normal temperatures are favored in this outlook. Dynamical model precipitation forecasts generally indicate increased probabilities of below median precipitation for Hawaii during the Week 3-4 period.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A55 B55
Kahului A60 B55
Honolulu A60 B55
Lihue A60 B55

Forecaster: Jon Gottschalck

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, May 26, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

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