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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 28 Oct 2017 to 10 Nov 2017
Updated: 13 Oct 2017

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Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Oct 28 2017-Fri Nov 10 2017

ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with the expected evolution toward cold ENSO conditions by northern winter. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The GEFS depicts a strengthening MJO signal propagating slowly across the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. In addition to the anticipated evolution of the global tropical convective pattern, dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, statistical tools, long term trends, and evolution from the Week-2 forecast were considered for this Week 3-4 outlook.

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting a trough over Alaska and a longwave trough shifting east somewhere into the CONUS. The CFS and ECMWF ensemble means feature positive 500-hPa height anomalies over most of the western and southern CONUS, while negative 500-hpa height anomalies are indicated over Alaska. The ECMWF and JMA ensemble means show above normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii.

Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts support an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures over northern and eastern Alaska, as well as the western and southern CONUS, with the highest probabilities over California, Nevada, and Western Arizona. Below-normal temperatures are favored over parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Carolina, and Tennessee. The predicted trough and below-normal heights over Alaska also increase probabilities of below-normal temperatures for southwestern Alaska and the Aleutians.

The various guidance is in fairly good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Below-median precipitation is favored over much of CONUS, consistent with dynamical model precipitation guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA. The anomalous upper-level trough forecast over Alaska favors above-median precipitation over the Aleutians, the coastal area of southern Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle.

Anomalously warm SSTs continue to persist around Hawaii, and this pattern is anticipated to continue into the Week 3-4 period. Therefore, above-normal temperatures are favored in this outlook. Dynamical model precipitation forecasts generally indicate increased probabilities of below-median precipitation for Kahului and Honolulu during the Week 3-4 period.







Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A80 EC
Kahului A80 B60
Honolulu A80 B60
Lihue A80 EC


Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Oct 20, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.



The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.



As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental




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6 to 10 Day Outlooks
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30-day Outlooks
90-day Outlooks
 
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Page last modified: May 19 2017
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