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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 08 Jul 2017 to 21 Jul 2017
Updated: 23 Jun 2017

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Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jul 08 2017-Fri Jul 21 2017

ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average over most of the Pacific Ocean. The amplitude of the RMM index increased during the past week, but the MJO is anticipated to remain weak during the next two weeks with Kelvin waves continuing to play a role in anomalous convection. The MJO is not expected to play a large role in the climate during week 3 and 4. In addition to the anticipated evolution of the global tropical convective pattern, dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, statistical tools, long term trends, and consistent evolution from the Week-2 forecast were considered for this Week 3-4 outlook.

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting troughs over the Pacific Northwest coast, the eastern CONUS, and the Aleutians, while a ridge is indicated over the Rockies, western Canada, and eastern Alaska. The CFS and ECMWF ensemble means feature very weak 500hPa height anomalies over most of the CONUS.

Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts support an enhanced likelihood of below normal temperatures for a region across parts of the Southeast, the Tennessee Valley, and the Middle Atlantic. Above normal temperatures are favored around the periphery of this area to include areas of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Plains. Near to above normal temperatures are also most likely for much of Alaska, due to predicted ridging during the period.

The various guidance is in good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near and downstream of anomalous troughing, above median precipitation is favored over the Lower Great Lakes. The odds for below median precipitation are elevated for parts of Minnesota, Dakota, Montana, North Idaho, and Washington in proximity to or downstream of ridging. The trough forecast over the Aleutians favors above median precipitation for far western Alaska, consistent with dynamical model precipitation guidance from the CFS, ECMWF and JMA tools.

Anomalously warm SSTs continue to persist around Hawaii, and this pattern is anticipated to continue into the Week 3-4 period. Therefore, above-normal temperatures are favored in this outlook. Dynamical model precipitation forecasts generally indicate increased probabilities of above median precipitation for Kahului and Honolulu during the Week 3-4 period.







Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A55 EC
Kahului A60 A55
Honolulu A60 A55
Lihue A60 EC


Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jun 30, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.



The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.



As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental




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8 to 14 Day Outlooks
30-day Outlooks
90-day Outlooks
 
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Page last modified: May 19 2017
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