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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 10 Mar 2018 to 23 Mar 2018
Updated: 23 Feb 2018

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 10 2018-Fri Mar 23 2018

The Madden Julian Oscillation has been active for the last few weeks with convection propagating across the tropical Pacific into the Western Hemisphere. La Nina conditions continue, but a transition to ENSO neutral conditions is predicted during the boreal spring. The week 3-4 outlook relies primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the ECMWF, CFS and JMA ensembles, with additional input from a statistical regression model derived from the current state of ENSO and the MJO, as well as the contribution of decadal trends. Individual models and the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a suite of non-operational ensemble prediction systems, was also consulted.

Dynamical models for the week 3-4 period predict a changing circulation pattern from the week 2 through week 3-4 period. Models predict persistent above normal 500-hPa heights near the western Aleutian Islands for weeks 2, 3 and 4. During week 2 and week 3, models predict an amplification of negative 500-hPa height anomalies from southeastern Alaska into the North Pacific, near the Pacific Northwest of the CONUS. By week 4, most models predict a change to the circulation pattern with rising heights over the southern and eastern CONUS. Calibrated temperature probabilities from the ECMWF, CFS and JMA indicate increased probabilities of below normal temperatures for the northwestern CONUS, as well as much of Alaska, in the week 3-4 period, under predicted negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Anomalously low sea ice in the Bering Sea and strong positive temperature trends for the North Slope decrease the probabilities of below normal temperatures leading to a forecast of equal chances. Operational models also consistently indicate increased probabilities for above normal temperatures for parts of the Southwest, southern Texas and the Gulf Coast, as well as for eastern regions of the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. These dynamical model temperature forecasts for the CONUS are consistent overall with the combined impacts of MJO, ENSO and decadal trends, as indicated by the statistical multivariate regression forecast.

The week 3-4 outlook indicates increased probabilities of above median precipitation for the Pacific coast of central and northern California, Oregon, and Washington, as well as the southern Alaska Panhandle, ahead of negative 500-hPa height anomalies, as indicated by the SubX MME. Above median precipitation is also indicated for the North Slope of Alaska, as in the ECMWF forecast and decadal trends. Below median precipitation is most likely for southwestern regions of Alaska, ahead of a predicted ridge over the Aleutians. The probabilities of below median precipitation are also increased for the Southern Plains states and the Northeast CONUS, as indicated by operational ensemble prediction systems from ECMWF, CFS and JMA, as well as the models of the SubX MME. Above median precipitation is most likely for much of Florida, as indicated by the SubX MME mean and consistent with regressions based on the current MJO phase.

Sea surface temperatures are slightly below normal to the northwest of Hawaii and above normal near southeastern islands, resulting in a forecast of equal chances for most of the islands and a forecast of more likely above normal temperatures for Hilo and the big island of Hawaii. All dynamical models are consistent in predicting greater probabilities of above median precipitation across the Hawaiian Islands.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A55 A55
Kahului EC A55
Honolulu EC A55
Lihue EC A55

Forecaster: Dan Collins

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 02, 2018

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental

An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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Page last modified: Nov 08 2017
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