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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 25 - 29, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 27 - Jul 03, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 19, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 19 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2018 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW  
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, MODELS DEPICT  
TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. SPLIT-FLOW IS  
ANTICIPATED FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH RIDGES FORECAST OVER CENTRAL CANADA AS  
WELL AS PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL  
CONUS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE TROUGH NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST EXITS OFFSHORE. THE MEAN MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF, DEPICTS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A PREDICTED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL SSTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTICIPATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS A FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES TROUGH THESE REGIONS. RIDGING OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MOIST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2018 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL FORECAST TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FARTHER TO THE EAST, RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A
RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, PARTICULARLY BY THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MANUAL
500-HPA BLEND, WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, FEATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, UNDER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR ALASKA IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE EAST FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. CONVERSELY, THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING LEADS TO FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, AS WELL AS ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT. FORECASTER: SCOTT H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19750702 - 20060610 - 19890622 - 19950629 - 19700614
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19750702 - 20060610 - 19890531 - 19700615 - 19950628 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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