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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 03 - 07, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 05 - 11, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Mar 28, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 28 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE  
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS  
OF EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA, AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TODAY'S  
MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST OF ALASKA AND  
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED  
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  
 
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR TO  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MOST OF EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT  
WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.  
PREDICTED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SURFACE ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA.  
 
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASE  
CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE  
HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWESTERN  
CONUS RELATED TO THE INFLOW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO RIDGING UPSTREAM. ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2017 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND/OR SURFACE ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY MODERATE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECASTER: QIN Z NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030321 - 19910408 - 19840317 - 19930323 - 20070323
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030320 - 19910407 - 19840317 - 19930323 - 20040328 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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