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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 30 - Aug 03, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 01 - 07, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 24, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON JULY 24 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2017 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT  
FIELD DEPICTS MEAN TROUGHS OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA, THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN  
PACIFIC, AND THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND MEAN RIDGES OVER NORTHEAST  
ALASKA/YUKON, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS. THERE ARE  
RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTED  
AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF THESE KEY LONG-WAVE FEATURES. AT THE 5820 METER LEVEL,  
THE VARIOUS SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS SHOW LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER THE CONUS. 
 
ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS ALASKA, MOST AREAS WEST  
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA,  
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, THE NORTHEAST, PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THIS IS GENERALLY DUE TO THE  
PREDICTED PRESENCE OF 500-HPA RIDGES AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS, OR  
APPROACHING 500-HPA TROUGHS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF  
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO  
VALLEYS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST (EXCLUDING FLORIDA).  
THIS IS DUE TO THE PREDICTED PRESENCE OF A NEARBY 500-HPA TROUGH. 
 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF ALASKA,  
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION AND ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST  
REGION AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES FROM FLORIDA  
TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE EXPECTATION OF APPROACHING  
500-HPA TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD ASCENT OF AIR, AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHWEST SUMMER MONSOON. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA, AND ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WHICH INCLUDES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST, AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THESE FAVORED AREAS OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED 500-HPA RIDGES AND BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS, AND/OR SUFFICIENT DISTANCE FROM STORM TRACKS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, AND REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2017 TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED WEEK-2 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TO A FIRST APPROXIMATION, THE PREDICTED PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT FOR DAYS 6-10, BUT THERE ARE INCREASING DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED AMPLITUDES AND PHASES OF THE MAJOR LONG-WAVES. FOR EXAMPLE, SOME MODELS NO LONGER PREDICT AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE OTHERS DEPICT SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT ANTICIPATED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH WITH REDUCED PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS. THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION PATTERN ALSO BEARS REASONABLE RESEMBLANCE TO THAT ANTICIPATED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH WITH VERY MODEST PROBABILITIES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, RELATED IN LARGE PART TO THE WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST AT 500-HPA DURING WEEK-2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY THE PREDICTION OF VERY MODEST 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND SURFACE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES. FORECASTER: ANTHONY A NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 17
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800725 - 19880715 - 19590725 - 19620726 - 19840806
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620725 - 19600707 - 19560713 - 19800724 - 19840806 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 03, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN N B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 07 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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