Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

 
HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Teleconnections > Antarctic Oscillation > MRF Ensemble Outlooks
 

The daily AAO indices are shown for the previous 120 days, and the ensemble forecasts of the daily AAO index at selected lead times are appended onto the time series. The indices are standardized by standard deviation of the observed monthly AAO index from 1979-2000. A 3-day running mean is applied to the forecast time series.

The values at the upper left and right corners of each figure indicate the mean value of the AAO index and the correlation coefficients between the observations and the forecasts, respectively.

The first panel shows the observed AAO index (black line) plus forecasted AAO indices from each of the 11 MRF ensemble members starting from the last day of the observations (red lines).

The ensemble mean forecasts of the AAO index are obtained by averaging the 11 MRF ensemble members (blue lines), and the observed AAO index (black line) is superimposed on each panel for comparison. For the forecasted indices (lower 3 panels), the yellow shading shows the ensemble mean plus and minus one standard deviation among the ensemble members, while the upper and lower red lines show the range of the forecasted indices, respectively.

 
MRF Ensemble Antarctic Oscillation Outlooks
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: December 12, 2005
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities