Abstract

POAMA stands for predictive ocean atmosphere model for Australia. POAMA is an intra-seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction system based on the Bureau of Meteorology coupled ocean/atmosphere model and an ocean data assimilation system. The first version (POAMA-1) has been run operationally by the Bureau of Meteorology since 2002. Following the successful development of POAMA-1, a new atmospheric and land initialization scheme (ALI) has been developed recently and this new system is now on operational trial phase and has been producing real-time forecasts since beginning of July this year.

An overview of the POAMA system and its performance will be presented in this talk. The system's ability to predict ENSO with particular focus on the detailed structure of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST, that is critical for affecting Australian rainfall, will be described in detail. Australian rainfall forecast skill from POAMA is to be compared with a statistical model in order to assess the potential utility of dynamically-based prediction. Finally the potential of using POAMA system for climate variability studies will be discussed.

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