Tools used in the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook (MDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for April, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly time scale, climatology for April, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on March 26, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions. There is an 83 percent change that El Niño conditions will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by April-June 2024.



Drought persistence is forecast for parts of the Intermountain West in the Western Region. The exception is across portions of Arizona where an active storm track in recent weeks, on the heels of a near to above normal winter rainy season, has resulted in improvements to drought conditions. Given the favorable precipitation outlooks through mid-April, additional improvements are also forecast, but are limited to areas where the heaviest precipitation totals are anticipated. Otherwise for the Western Region, snowpack is running near to above normal from the northern rim of the Great Basin (central Oregon and southern Idaho) southward. Conversely, in northern portions of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies, seasonal snowpack is running below to well below normal, particularly across the northern Cascades. Although warmer and drier signals are favored during the middle and latter portions of April, recent improvements from an active storm track may help to curb major regions of development by the end of April. Although some development cannot be ruled out, particularly across parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana, drought persistence is predominantly favored.



Forecast confidence is moderate to high in the Four Corners and low to moderate elsewhere in the Western Region.



Below normal seasonal snowpack is prominent across the Northern Plains in the High Plains Region. Although there was some beneficial precipitation over the past couple of weeks that resulted in some modest improvements across the Dakotas and above normal precipitation is also favored through early April, drought is favored to persist through the end of April, as warmer and drier conditions are forecast during the latter half of the month. Conversely, recent heavy precipitation and favorable precipitation outlooks through mid-April suggest more drought improvement across the Central Plains. Raw ensemble model guidance is forecasting in excess of 2 inches of precipitation across eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas, further supporting the potential for improvement.



Forecast confidence is moderate in the High Plains region.



A robust winter El Niño signal resulted in widespread above normal precipitation and dramatic improvements to drought across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley since the beginning of 2024, with several areas going from exceptional drought to no drought or abnormal dryness (D4 to no shade of color, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor) by the start of April. Wetter than normal precipitation outlooks and only weak tilts toward above normal temperatures in the monthly outlooks support a general continuation of improving drought conditions across the region. The exception is across parts of western Texas where, despite above normal precipitation signals, totals are not expected to be enough to drastically improve long-term drought indicators by the end of April. Therefore, drought persistence is forecast for western Texas and along the Rio Grande.



Forecast confidence is moderate for western Texas and high elsewhere in the Southern Region.



Drought persistence is favored across parts of the Upper Midwest. Despite below normal seasonal snowpack across these areas, recent precipitation has resulted in drought improvements in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released on March 28. Also, despite above normal temperatures being favored throughout April, above normal extended-range precipitation outlooks suggest that drought development is not likely by the end of April. Farther southward in the Midwest Region, wetter than normal conditions are also favored through the middle of April, with the heaviest precipitation totals predominantly forecast over the southern Great Lakes and across the Corn Belt. Given this region is primed for additional improvements due to the recent strong storm system to move through, drought improvement and removal is forecast for these areas, although these improvements are likely to be more targeted in nature.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate in the Midwest Region.



An active storm track supported by a strong El Niño during the winter has resulted in widespread drought improvements over the past few months in the Southeast. Much of the region is currently depicted as being drought free, with the exception of a small area in eastern North Carolina. Given near normal precipitation signals are favored during April and precipitation signals over the Carolinas are lacking for the month of April as a whole, this small area is forecast to persist through the end of the month. However, localized degradation or removal cannot be ruled out given its small-scale nature and uncertainty in the storm track beyond mid-April.



Forecast confidence is low in North Carolina and moderate to high elsewhere in the Southeast Region.



In the Northeast region, drought persistence is forecast for Nantucket Island and western New York. Drought conditions have been slow to improve in these areas throughout the winter season. Despite model guidance favoring a large swath of precipitation potentially in excess 2 to 2.5 inches across the region through the middle of April, conditions are forecast to dry out and remain warmer than normal toward the middle to latter half of the month. So any improvements to groundwater and soil moisture conditions will be modest early on, but likely enough to stave off any development through the end of the April.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate in the Northeast Region.



Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free by the end of January. The spring thaw is not a real concern until we enter into the latter portions of April and into May and snowpack is above normal for most of the state. Time of year also makes it difficult for drought to develop in Alaska.



Forecast confidence is high in Alaska.



Drought persistence if favored in Hawaii. The state has experienced a mix of improvement and degradation since early March. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favors near to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. However, extended-range outlooks favor below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation. There is also some uncertainty among the weeks 3-4 forecast tools. Given the mixed signals at various leads, and above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures favored early on, no drought development is forecast by the end of April.



Forecast confidence is low to moderate in Hawaii.



In Puerto Rico, although the NMME is favoring above normal precipitation, above normal temperatures are also favored. In addition, the suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to propagate across the western Atlantic during early April, and there is increasing uncertainty as to how strong the MJO will be toward the end of April, offsetting the above normal precipitation signals coming from the NMME. Given the improvements in drought conditions in recent weeks and uncertainty among some of the forecast guidance and tools, drought persistence is favored.



Forecast confidence is moderate in Puerto Rico.



The U.S. Virgin Islands are forecast to remain drought-free through the end of April. Although some abnormal dryness (D0 as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor) is present on Saint Thomas, there is some uncertainty with respect to some of the forecast guidance and tools in the precipitation signals at various time scales during April, in a similar manner as Puerto Rico.



Forecast confidence is moderate in the U.S. Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Hartman



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: April 30, 2024 at 3:00 PM EDT