Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for February and February-March-April (FMA), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for FMA, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. El Nino conditions were present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the start of FMA, with a more than 70% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024. El Nino conditions were a major consideration in this forecast. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on January 16, 2024 was used for initial drought conditions.

Drought improvements have been observed slowly and steadily across the Pacific Northwest since the start of its wet season. Based on the FMA precipitation outlook, persistence is forecast for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Chances for improvement increase farther south into southwestern Oregon where equal chances of below, near, or above-normal precipitation are forecast. Drought development is also anticipated across parts of the anomalous dry areas of the northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies, where groundwater and snowpack are below normal to start the FMA season and below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures are favored. Across the southwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), El Nino conditions favor a robust Pacific jet and increased moisture flow. However, precipitation signals dissipate farther inland toward the Southern Plains with the region trending to a rather dry FMA season, persistence of the existing drought across much of the Southwest is expected by the end of April.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West and low for the southwestern region.

Drought persistence is likely across parts of southwestern Colorado due to lack of wet signals in the FMA precipitation outlook. Above normal precipitation is favored across parts of the Central Plains coupled with above normal snowpack at the start of the FMA and a favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge. Therefore, 1 class drought improvement is favored across the region. Drought persistence is forecast across the remainder of the High Plains, due to lack of wet signals and a drier climatology through March.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the High Plains region.

An active southern storm track associated with El Nino conditions during FMA favors drought improvement and removal for parts of Oklahoma, Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Drought persistence is favored for much of the Tennessee Valley, where precipitation signals for February and FMA are weaker or lacking entirely. In addition, antecedent soil moisture conditions are very poor across many areas already experiencing abnormal dryness at the start of the season.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern region.

Drought persistence is anticipated over much of the Midwest, where above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is favored across much of the region for the coming FMA. Drought removal/improvement is likely over parts of western Iowa and northwestern Missouri, where above normal precipitation is forecast for the FMA and together with above normal snowpack over the region at the beginning of the FMA.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Midwest region.

Drought improvement and removal is favored across much of the Southeast region, associated with an active storm track corresponding to mature El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Removal of drought is likely over areas of northern Georgia and far west North Carolina. Likewise, the small areas of drought across the Florida Peninsula are likely to be eliminated by the end of the FMA.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast region.

Drought persistence is forecast for a small area over western West Virginia due to lack of wet signals and above normal temperatures in the February and FMA outlooks. Drought persistence is also favored in western New York, where above normal temperatures are favored and precipitation signals are lacking throughout FMA.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast region.

Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free by the end of April. Snowpack is above normal for much of the state and precipitation outlooks are favorable at most time scales through April. Time of year also makes it difficult for drought to develop in Alaska.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Antecedent dryness coupled with below normal seasonal precipitation and above normal temperatures support persistence and development across much of the Hawaiian Islands, especially over the east half of the state. Although it being a wet time of year, El Nino conditions typically result in a drier than normal wet season, further supporting the degradation of conditions. The potential for short-term improvements is likely in Hawaii due to the CPC 8-14 day outlook favoring above-normal precip through the end of January.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

Antecedent moderate drought and abnormal dryness (D1 and D0, respectively, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor) is designated for parts of Puerto Rico. Persistence is forecast for ongoing drought areas. No development is depicted in this seasonal outlook since the NMME favors above-normal precipitation during FMA.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.

Antecedent drought conditions in Saint Thomas and Saint Croix are forecast to persist due to a rather dry time of year for February and March, trending to its rainy season during April.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: February 15, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST