Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for January and January-February-March (JFM), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scale, climatology for JFM, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. El Nino conditions were present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the start of JFM, with a 60% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024. El Nino conditions were a major consideration in this forecast. The U.S. Drought Monitor valid on December 19, 2023 was used for initial drought conditions.

Drought improvements have been slow and steady across the Pacific Northwest since the start of its wet season. Although monthly and seasonal precipitation signals are lacking a bit, there is an indication that precipitation chances may increase toward the middle of January. Snowpack remains a concern, as warmer than normal temperatures favored during the January-February-March (JFM) season would act to raise snow levels in the higher elevations through the end of March. However, El Nino favors an active pattern for much of the West Coast. Therefore, drought removal is favored for the windward slopes of the northern Cascades of Washington and in areas experiencing moderate to severe drought (D1-D2, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor) in Oregon, where antecedent snowpack is closer to normal at the onset of JFM and precipitation signals tilt more toward above normal through the end of January. Across northern portions of the Intermountain West, below normal precipitation chances increase later in the season. Coupled with favored above normal temperatures, drought persistence is favored from the leeward slopes of the northern Cascades eastward to northwestern Montana. Drought development is also forecast across the Bitterroot Mountains and extending southeastward to Yellowstone in Wyoming, where groundwater and snowpack are below normal to start the JFM season and below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures are favored. Across the southwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), El Nino conditions favor a robust Pacific jet and increased moisture flow, favoring improving drought conditions across parts of the Four Corners region. However, above normal seasonal precipitation signals dissipate farther inland toward the Southern Plains, decreasing the potential for the improvement of long-term drought indicators across southeastern Arizona and much of New Mexico by the end of March.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West and high for the Four Corners in the Western region.

Drought is forecast to improve across parts of the Colorado Plateau and Front Range, where the JFM precipitation outlook favors a tilt toward above normal precipitation. This is primarily due to the favored extension of the Pacific jet, associated with El Nino, into the southwestern CONUS increasing the likelihood of enhanced storminess across the region. Above normal precipitation odds also extend into the Central Plains, where development and intensification of storm systems in the lee of the Rockies is possible due to the enhanced Pacific jet. There is also the possibility of moist, southerly Gulf of Mexico flow introducing increased precipitation chances as March approaches. However, in addition to JFM being a very dry time of year for the Great Plains, precipitation episodes are also likely to be transient and sporadic in nature during the season, which will make it difficult to erase long-term precipitation deficits across the Central Plains. Therefore, drought persistence is favored in the Central Plains states. Drought persistence is also forecast across the Dakotas, where the soils are likely to remain frozen for much of the JFM season, essentially locking moisture in place. However, with above normal temperatures favored through the end of March, early thaw potential will need to be monitored if below normal precipitation and snowpack are observed.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the High Plains region.

An active southern storm track associated with El Nino conditions during JFM favors drought improvement and removal for parts of eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Precipitation signals for January and JFM are lacking, however, across much of the Southern Plains and despite the likelihood that this region will see at least some precipitation associated with the El Nino signal, these events are likely to be fast-moving and transient. Therefore, persistence is generally favored for much of the Southern Plains. Drought persistence is also favored for portions of the lower Tennessee Valley, where precipitation signals for January and JFM are weaker or lacking entirely. In addition, antecedent soil moisture conditions are very poor across many areas already experiencing abnormal dryness at the start of the season. Since the storm track is favored to be displaced farther southward, the potential for drought to develop is increased near the lower Tennessee Valley and the Mississippi-Ohio River confluence.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern region.

Drought persistence is favored throughout the Midwest, where above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is predominantly favored. However, areas of development are limited to portions of the Corn Belt and along the Ohio River Valley where antecedent soil moisture signals are the driest and stream flows are running well below normal. Farther northward in Michigan and the Upper Midwest, development is less likely to occur, as the soils are likely to be frozen throughout much of the JFM season, locking soil moisture in place. However, this region will need to be monitored for early thawing as March approaches, as below normal seasonal precipitation and above normal temperatures are favored for the JFM season.

Forecast confidence is low for the Upper Midwest and moderate for the remainder of the Midwest region.

Drought improvement and removal is favored throughout the Southeast region, associated with an active storm track corresponding to El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Removal of drought is likely along the Southern Appalachians and the Piedmont areas of Carolinas and Virginia, where recent heavy precipitation from coastal storms have primed these areas for additional improvements. Likewise, the small areas of drought across southeastern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula are likely to be eliminated.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast region.

Drought removal is forecast for areas across West Virginia and Maryland experiencing moderate to severe drought (D1 and D2, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor), as recent coastal storm systems have dropped anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of precipitation, primarily in the form of rain. Monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks also favor wetter than normal conditions, supporting total removal of drought for these areas by the end of March. Conversely, drought persistence is favored in western New York, where above normal temperatures are favored and precipitation signals are lacking throughout JFM.

Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast region.

Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free by the end of March. Snowpack is above normal for most of the state and precipitation outlooks are favorable at most time scales through March. Time of year also makes it difficult for drought to develop in Alaska.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Drought persistence is favored for the Hawaiian Islands, with development also favored in regions experiencing abnormal dryness (D0, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor). Antecedent dryness coupled with dry seasonal precipitation signals support this persistence and development forecast. Additionally, despite it being a wet time of year, El Nino conditions typically result in a drier than normal wet season, further supporting the degradation of conditions.

Forecast confidence is high for Hawaii.

Antecedent moderate drought and abnormal dryness (D1 and D0, respectively, as depicted in the U.S. Drought Monitor), a lack of seasonal precipitation signals, and warmer than normal temperatures favored through the end of March favor drought persistence and development in Puerto Rico. However, development is limited only to areas experiencing abnormal dryness at the start of the JFM season, given the uncertainty in the precipitation outlooks.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Puerto Rico.

Antecedent drought conditions in Saint Thomas and Saint Croix are forecast to persist due to a lack of precipitation signals for January and JFM, in addition to above normal temperatures being favored. Despite Saint John being drought-free at the start of the JFM season, drought development is favored for the island by the end of March, driven primarily by the January and JFM warmer than normal temperature outlooks and the drier time of year.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Forecaster: Adam Hartman

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: January 18, 2024 at 8:30 AM EST