Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) include the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks for June-July-August (JJA, or summer), monthly precipitation and temperature outlooks for June, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts, dynamical model output, JJA climatology, and initial conditions such as snowpack and soil moisture. The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on May 16, was used for initial conditions. Latest forecasts show increasing chances of El Nino developing, with a nearly 90% chance of development for JJA as a whole. 

Precipitation climatology varies significantly across the Western Region. The Pacific Coast States receive little precipitation during the summer, with central and southwestern California typically recording less than 2 percent of their annual precipitation during JJA. The seasonality increased moving westward. JJA is a relatively neutral season across the southern Great Basin and the western Rockies, with 15 to 30 percent of annual precipitation falling during the summer. Meanwhile, JJA is one of the wetter 3-month periods across central and eastern Montana, and over much of Arizona and New Mexico. On average, JJA brings about 45 percent of the annual precipitation to northeastern Montana and northeastern New Mexico. Persistence is forecast with high confidence for the western tier of the Western Region because odds favor below-normal summer precipitation in the Northwest, and there's very dry JJA climatology near the entire Pacific Coast. Since the season is climatologically dry, there should be little change in the longer-term moisture budget, so significant drought expansion isn't expected. Over the rest of the northern tier, there are no compelling indicators pointing toward either unusually wet or unusually dry conditions for JJA, so persistence is forecast in central Montana given the relatively long-term nature of precipitation deficits, which reduces the odds for any season to bring signigicant relief, all other conditions being equal. Removal is forecast with low confidence in eastern Montana, where JJA is climatologically a wet time of year, and there are no compelling indicators of any prolonged dryness there. Over the Great Basin and adjacent areas, this is neither a particularly wet nor dry time of year. Forecasts over the next two weeks favor above normal precipitation while the tools don't point toward either a wetter nor drier than normal summer. Based on shorter-term precipitation, some improvement is forecast, with low confidence. In southeastern sections of the region, odds favor subnormal JJA precipitation. As a result, most of New Mexico is expected to see drought persist or worsen. An exception is a small area in northeast New Mexico. The Weather Prediction Center forecasts 1.5 to 3.0 inches of precipitation in this area over the next 7 days, and outputs from the Canadian, European, and GEFS ensemble means put 0.75 to locally >2 inches of precipitation during the ensuing week. These excessive wetness during the next 2 weeks is expected to bring some improvement to the region, and the ensuing subnormal precipitation is not expected to bring re-intensification by the end of August. Improvement is expected here, with low confidence. 

Forecast confidence for the Western Region is high in the Pacific Coast States, moderate in the northern and central Rockies, and low in the Great Basin and adjacent areas, and in the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. 
 
In High Plains Region, JJA is relatively wet time of year east of the Rockies, while summer leans neither dry nor wet climatologically in the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming. A large part of the Plains receives over 35 percent of their annual precipitation during JJA, with over 45 percent of the yearly total typically falling over North Dakota as well as northeastern Colorado. Drought persistence is expected in western Wyoming as in areas farther north due to the long-term nature of the moisture deficits there, and because the various tools show no signal favoring above-normal precipitation there. However, by the end of August, most parts of the High Plains Region are forecast to see better conditions than current, though for different reasons in different areas, and varying degrees of confidence. Over southern parts of the Region - including the large areas of Kansas entrenched in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought - moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated during the next week, and above-normal precipitation is favored during week-2. Farther north from the northern tier of Kansas through the Dakotas, unremarkable precipitation totals are indicated during the next week while surplus precipitation is slightly favored for week-2. There are equal chances for above-, near- and below-normal summer rainfall in all these areas. But with JJA being relatively wetter than other times of year, enough precipitation is anticipated to bring at least some drought improvement, with higher confidence in southern sections where the last half of May looks significantly wetter than normal. Southeast Colorado also has low-confidence forecast for improvement or removal. In this area, the next two weeks look markedly wetter than normal, but there are enhanced chances for subnormal precipitation during JJA. The much wetter than normal short-term weather and the relatively wet JJA climatology are expected to ease conditions short-term which will not re-intensify by the end of the period. Slightly increased chances for a wetter-than-normal June over portions of the western Great Plains and Colorado also argue for a forecast of improvement or removal, depending on the initial drought intensity.

Forecast confidence for the High Plains Region is high for the south-central Great Plains, and low elsewhere.

There is a sharp demarcation in drought conditions in the Southern Region. Drought covers the central and western areas of Oklahoma and Texas, with a few large areas of extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought. Farther east, drought is restricted to small areas in southern Louisiana. In most of central and western Texas, moderate to heavy precipitation is expected over the next week in central and west-central sections, and odds slightly favor wetness during week-2. For JJA, there are enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation along the westernmost tier of Texas, but most of the drought areas do not have wetness or dryness favored for summer. JJA is a wet time of year in the Big Bend of Texas, but is not climatologically wet nor dry time of year farther east. The relatively wet JJA climatology and the expectation of wetter-than-normal weather during the last half of May in the Big Bend are expected to keep drought from expanding in this region, but areas currently in drought aren't expected to see enough improvement to reduce drought levels in the Drought Monitor. Farther north, short-term rainfall is expected to be heavier in Oklahoma and the adjacent Texas Panhandle than in areas farther south, and unlike central Texas, JJA is a relatively wet time of year. The last week of May and the month of June also show slightly increased chances for above-normal precipitation here. As a result, drought is expected to improve or be removed by the end of August in the dry areas across Oklahoma and central and eastern sections of the Texas Panhandle. In the small areas of drought farther east, drought has been contracting slowly for the past several weeks, and seasonable precipitation should continue this trend, removing drought conditions.

Forecast confidence in the Southern Region is high across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and moderate elsewhere. 

In the Midwest Region, drought is restricted to western Iowa and a swath across central Missouri. Recent subnormal rainfall and warm weather has allowed conditions to deteriorate to D3 (extreme drought) in central Missouri. JJA is a relatively wet season climatologically in western Iowa, but not particularly wet or dry on average across central Missouri. Wetter than normal weather is slightly favored in the next two weeks in western Iowa, but unremarkable precipitation is forecast during this period in central Missouri. JJA as a whole favors neither dryness nor wetness in western Iowa, but there are enhanced odds for surplus summer rainfall in central Missouri. Climatology and short-term precipitation prompts a low-confidence forecast of improvement or removal in western Iowa, and the summer forecast leads to a similar forecast across central Missouri with somewhat higher confidence. 

Forecast confidence in the Midwest Region is low in western Iowa and moderate across central Missouri. 

Drought covers a large part of the Florida Pensinsula, although conditions have been slowly improving in most areas over the past few weeks. JJA is a wet time of year in this area, and forecasts on all time scales from the next 7 days to summer as a whole favor above-normal precipitation. Thus there is a high confidence for drought removal statewide, including the current areas of severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought in parts of the central Peninsula. No drought exists elsewhere in the Southeast Region, and none is expected to develop.  
 
Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.

There were substantial areas of drought in the Northeast Region in mid-April, but increased precipitation since then has reduced moisture deficits, leaving only a few spots of drought remaining in the mid-Atlantic Region. With odds leaning toward above-normal rainfall for JJA, drought removal is the obvious forecast. 
 
Forecast confidence is high for the Northeast Region.

Drought is not extant in Alaska, and despite some slightly enhanced chances for subnormal summer precipitation across the southern tier of the state, drought is not expected to become a problem.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska.

Hawaii became drought-free during early February, but D1 drought came back early April for Maui. Increased rainfall prompted removal of this area in the last four weeks, but a small area of moderate drought has developed during this period in northern parts of the Big Island. The JJA outlook is for subnormal precipitation statewide, allowing for drought persistence or intensification there. Elsewhere, the months-long episode of below-normal precipitation is expected to bring drought development to many leeward areas across the state. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for Hawaii. 

Tools don't point toward either drier- nor wetter-than-normal weather in Puerto Rico the next three months. A low-confidence forecast of removal is based on the climatological increase in rainfall that occurs during summer, and some indicators are showing enhanced chances for an unusually early start to the tropical cyclone season.

Forecast confidence is low for Puerto Rico.


Forecaster: Rich Tinker
 
Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: June 15, 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT