Tools used in the Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March and March-April-May (MAM) 2023, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the MAM season, and initial conditions such as soil moisture and snow water equivalent. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on February 14 was used for initial drought conditions. La Niña conditions remain in place, but are strongly favored to erode during the next few months.

A drier pattern emerged across the West since mid-January, following a remarkable series of winter storms and atmospheric river events that brought record snows to portions of the Sierra Nevadas range and widespread rainfall and flooding to coastal and metropolitan areas of California. While drought conditions continued to blanket nearly 60 percent of the Western Region as of the February 9 USDM, coverage of extreme to exceptional drought dropped from nearly 20 percent to under 4 percent since the onset of the wet season. Snowmelt boosted moisture in reservoirs and streams, promoting some additional drought improvements across California, the Great Basin, and the central Rockies over the last four weeks despite the drier conditions. Winter precipitation has been more lackluster across the Northwest, which has seen hit and miss improvements and degradations to the drought depiction over the past few weeks. Over the next week, a series of storms will bring additional coastal rains and mountain snows to the Northwest, including the Cascades and north-central Rockies. The focus for enhanced precipitation is favored to shift southward during Week-2, with the CPC 8-14 day ERF indicating an increased potential for wet conditions across the entire Western Region, with the highest probabilities across the Sierra Nevadas. The March outlook continues the enhanced chances for above-median precipitation across northern portions of the Western Region, including the northern half of California and the Great Basin. Given these short and medium range outlooks, coupled with already high snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions across the Sierras and central Rockies, drought improvement or removal is favored for the Northwest, north-central California, northern Nevada and Utah, and the northern Rockies. Confidence in improvement is lowest across the northern Rockies and Montana prairies, where snow cover is more scarce. Drought persistence is favored for southern California due to drying climatology during the spring months, and across the Four Corners region, where the MAM outlook indicates increased odds for below-median precipitation. Adequate moisture levels and a dry climatology make substantial drought expansion unlikely across the Southwest, barring periods of early-season extreme heat.

Across the Western Region, forecast confidence is high for the Southwest, moderate for northern California and the Northwest, and low for the northern Rockies and Montana prairies.

As of February 9, the majority of exceptional drought (D4) depicted across the US was located over the High Plains region, extending primarily across western Kansas and portions of Nebraska. More than 65 percent of the High Plains region is currently experiencing drought conditions, the most of any of the Regional Climate Center areas of responsibility. Over the past 30 days, widespread precipitation fell across Nebraska and eastern Kansas, easing some drought conditions but failing to overcome the large long-term deficits in place. Snow cover is above-average across western Kansas and the eastern Dakotas, but more meager across Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Over the next two weeks, additional precipitation is favored for the Plains, with accumulations unlikely to result in substantial changes to the current drought depictions. The March outlook favors above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures across the northern Plains, which should help with late snowpack building, although colder temperatures may slow absorption of moisture into the underlying soil. The outlook for the Plains is based largely on climatology. Precipitation tends to increase throughout the spring as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico penetrates further north across the Plains, feeding into baroclinic storm systems. In the absence of a clear dry signal, this climatological precipitation should help to ease ongoing drought conditions across the Great Plains. Therefore, drought reductions are indicated on the outlook for the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska and Kansas, though with confidence decreasing towards the south. Drought persistence is the most likely outcome across the more arid High Plains ahead of the more persistent summer convective season.

Forecast confidence is low for the High Plains region.

During the past month, widespread heavy rainfall fell across northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and the lower Mississippi Valley outside of the immediate Gulf Coast region. While this precipitation eased drought and abnormal dryness, the core drought areas of the Southern Region over much of Oklahoma and portions of Texas were too far west to benefit. Drought conditions have begun to expand across Texas due to increasing precipitation deficits, particularly across southern Texas, while a small area of drought remains in place in southern Louisiana. Precipitation deficits have also begun to grow across the Tennessee Valley. Over the next week, a potent storm system is expected to erase the precipitation deficits across Tennessee, and bring some beneficial rainfall to northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma; the same regions that have received precipitation during the last month. The 8-14 day ERF favors below-average precipitation across the Southern Region. The March outlook shows a dry signal across southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast, and increased chances for above-normal precipitation across far eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Based on these outlooks, drought persistence and expansion is favored across southern and western Texas. Across Oklahoma, increasing climatological precipitation during the spring months should provide opportunities for drought reduction across the eastern half of the state, with persistence a more likely outcome for western Oklahoma.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Southern Region.

Across the Midwest region, areas of drought remain in place across portions of Iowa, Minnesota, and eastern Michigan. Although snow cover is much below average for this time of year, suggesting a vulnerability to spring drought development, precipitation increased over the last 30 days, providing some drought relief. Additionally, a wet pattern for the Midwest is favored at all time scales, from the 7-day WPF, ERF outlooks, and the monthly and seasonal outlooks. Therefore, despite the meager snowpack conditions, further drought reductions are the most likely outcome through the spring months.

Forecast confidence is high for the Midwest Region.

Across the Southeast, widespread heavy rainfall eased drought along the Florida Panhandle and portions of the south Atlantic coastal Plain over the last 30 days, though pockets of moderate drought still remain in coastal North Carolina and the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Severe drought conditions have developed along Florida’s Nature Coast region, with abnormal dryness and moderate drought slowly expanding along the Florida Peninsula. La Niña impacts are still occurring across the Southeast, with a persistent anomalous ridge promoting above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall, particularly across Florida. Forecasts across all time scales during the spring favor below-median precipitation for Florida, with the ERF and March outlooks extending the dry signal across the Gulf and South Atlantic coastal plain. Based on increasing dryness and these outlooks, drought development is forecast for the Florida Peninsula, with a potential for redevelopment along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Forecast confidence is high for the Southeast Region.

No drought is currently indicated for the Northeast. Snowpack conditions are well below average across upstate New York and New England, which may create a vulnerability to spring drought development. Short and medium range forecasts indicate fairly generous accumulations, and the seasonal outlook shows increased odds for above-median precipitation for the mid-Atlantic states and New York. Based on these outlooks and climatology, drought development is not anticipated across the Northeast region.

Forecast confidence is moderate for the Northeast Region.

No drought is currently depicted across Alaska. The seasonal outlook indicates increased chances for below-normal precipitation along the Alaska Panhandle region; however, incipient conditions are fairly wet, which should limit the potential for drought development ahead of the summer months. No drought is depicted across Hawaii, and drought redevelopment is not favored through May. Drier conditions are forecast across Puerto Rico during the spring months, and slow drought development in areas already abnormally dry is possible.

Forecast confidence is moderate for Alaska, high for Hawaii, and low to moderate for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Seasonal Outlook issued: March 16, 2023 at 8:30 AM EST