Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2022 and March through May (MAM) 2022, various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for March and MAM, and initial conditions for various parameters, such as soil moisture. Existing drought areas on the forecast are based on the February 17 U.S. Drought Monitor. Conditions currently reflect the presence of a mature La Nina, with a 77% chance for La Nina to persist through the Northern Hemisphere Spring (end of May 2022), and the potential for a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during the Spring 2022 (56% chance during May-July 2022).

Below-normal precipitation was observed across much of the West during January. Ongoing La Nina has continued to bring above-normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies leading up to the MAM SDO release. However, Oregon, California, Nevada, the Great Basin and Four Corners region have experienced a very dry start from early January, with extended-range forecasts indicating a likely dry end to the month, which will offset the much above-normal normal (in some cases record) precipitation observed in the latter half of December for several locations. Long-term dryness is still a concern for many areas across the west, with most reservoirs still running below-normal and groundwater struggling to replenish. The ongoing La Nina conditions throughout MAM favor a return to drier than normal conditions, particularly for southern California eastward to the Southwest. Conversely, the continuation of La Nina increases the likelihood for continued above-normal precipitation across parts of the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Rockies. In addition, monthly and seasonal outlooks favor below-normal temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, parts of northern California, and the northern Rockies, with near to above-normal temperatures indicated for the remainder of the West. As such, drought conditions are likely to improve for portions of  eastern Washington, extending eastward to northern Idaho, with persistence likely elsewhere in the West. In addition, the warmer and drier signals in the Southwest in the monthly and seasonal outlooks increase the potential for drought development in portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico. Drought development is like over the dry area in central Idaho due to below-normal precipitation in short-term to Week 2 forecasts and lack of precipitation signal in seasonal outlooks, the area also entering climatological favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge later in the period. 

Forecast confidence is moderate for Montana, and high elsewhere for the Western Region.

The monthly and seasonal outlooks both favor above-normal temperatures across the southern half of the region at both lead times, with increasing dry signals across most of the Central Plains as MAM progresses. Across the northern half of the High Plains Region, temperature and precipitation signals disappear entirely. Given the time of year and lack of antecedent snowpack across much of the region (south and west of North Dakota), existing drought is likely to persist during the MAM. The antecedent dryness, increasing dry signals as MAM progresses and lack of antecedent snowpack in the region indicate drought development is also likely across parts of the central High Plains.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the High Plains Region.

The mature La Nina during MAM indicates likely above-normal precipitation across much of the Midwest. Above-normal antecedent snowpack across northern Minnesota, and the potential for additional snow in the short-term associated with short-wave low pressure systems that move across the Great Lakes region, increase the potential for drought removal in areas experiencing moderate (D1) drought and improvement in severe (D2) drought areas. In the remainder of the Upper Mississippi Valley, although precipitation signals are enhanced (>33% chance of above-normal precipitation during MAM), drought persistence is likely due to below-normal antecedent snowpack across areas.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Midwest Region.

Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation have been the main story across most of the Southern Region since Fall 2021, leading to widespread expansion of drought from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. During this time, Texas recorded its warmest Winter month on record, with the state-wide average December temperature reaching 59°F, beating the previous Winter month record of 58.4°F in February 2017, and smashing the old December record of 53.3°F set in 1933. Long-term forecast guidance indicates a continuation of warm and dry conditions across most of the southern CONUS, with the strongest signals across western portions of the Southern Region in drought-stricken areas. As such, drought is likely to persist through the end of May, with drought development likely along the western Gulf Coast. The exception is across the area in LA/MS/AR where potentially 3"+ rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks. Drought improvement/removal is favored in this area.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Southern Region.

Leading up to the MAM SDO release, drought conditions have slowly improved across the Carolinas and parts of Virginia. Increased troughing across much of the eastern CONUS through the week-2 period, favoring near to above-normal precipitation along the northern portion of the region. However, beyond week 2, above-normal temperatures are favored for the entire season, with dry signals indicated along the coastal areas of the Southeast. In addition, coastal portions of the Southeast are climatologically entering into a drier time of year during MAM and favorable time for soil moisture discharge. The drier climatology coupled with the warm, dry La Nina signal indicate conditions in coastal areas, extending into the Florida Peninsula, are likely to deteriorate. Therefore, drought persistence is likely across coastal portions of the Carolinas and Georgia, with drought development likely along abnormal dryness areas (D0) of the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate for the Southeast Region.

Despite the monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks favoring equal chances for above, below, or near-normal precipitation, above-normal temperatures are favored across the Northeast region. Additionally, the region is trending into its climatologically favorable time of year for soil moisture discharge. Therefore, drought persistence is likely by the end of May for areas currently experiencing moderate (D1) and severe (D2) drought in northern New England. In addition, drought development is most likely in current abnormal dryness areas (D0) over this region. 

Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Northeast Region.

In Alaska, the CPC extended range outlooks favor above-normal precipitation across the state. Long-lead outlooks favor near to above-normal precipitation over western and central Mainland Alaska and below-normal precipitation over southeast Alaska through the beginning of March. However, there are increased probabilities of near to below-normal temperatures in the long-range outlooks. Given the time of year in this region, Alaska is likely to remain drought-free. Hawaii is currently experiencing moderate (D1) drought across much of the islands and severe (D2) drought in portions of Maui and Molokai. Long-lead outlooks favor above-normal precipitation throughout MAM. Therefore, drought removal/improvement is likely for Hawaii. In Puerto Rico, wetter to near-normal rainfall signals are also favored during MAM and the region trending to its climatological wet season, leading to an increased likelihood for drought removal from the island.

Forecast confidence is high for Alaska and Hawaii, and moderate for Puerto Rico.

Forecaster: Yun Fan

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 17, 2022 at 8:30 AM EST.