Tools used in the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March (Mar'19) and March through May 2019 (MAM'19), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), the Week 3-4 outlooks and tools from CPC, dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, climatology for the MAM season, and initial conditions. CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory as of 14 February 2019, and weak El Nino conditions are favored to persist through the boreal spring season (55-percent chance). Constructive interference between convection associated with the positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and the enhanced phase of the MJO have helped to drive the atmospheric response. 

Northeast: No areas of drought or abnormal dryness are present in the Northeast RCC region as of the February 19. AHPS precipitation estimates over the past 30 days show that most areas have received near to above-normal precipitation. The Northeast typically receives generous precipitation during the spring months, and the CPC MAM'19 outlook maintains equal chances for below-, near-, and above-normal precipitation for most of the region, except enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation from West Virginia through southern New Jersey. Therefore, drought development is not anticipated.

Northeast forecast Confidence is high.

Southeast: Widespread heavy rainfall along and south of the I-4 corridor in Florida resulted in removal of drought across the Treasure Coast and Gold Coast, although abnormal dryness (D0) remains in place. Elsewhere, however, an area of below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures during the last 30 days extended from the Florida Panhandle to the Piedmont region of North Carolina. Due to favorable conditions prior to this period, there is only a small area of D0 along the immediate coast of South Carolina. Widespread precipitation is ongoing and favored to continue during the next week across the Southeast, which should quickly erode some of these deficits. The 8-14 Day precipitation outlook depicts increased chances for above-normal precipitation along the coastal plain, and both the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor above-normal precipitation across the entire Southeast. Therefore, no drought development is anticipated.

Southeast forecast confidence is high. 

South: During the last 30 days, AHPS estimates showed a tight gradient between much above-normal precipitation across Arkansas and Tennessee, and below-normal precipitation across Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. Small areas of D0 persisted across southern Louisiana and Oklahoma, and larger areas of abnormal dryness and drought continued to expand across southern, northern, and western Texas. During the next 7 days, the WPC QPF shows heavy rainfall extending from eastern Texas across Louisiana and Mississippi, with drier conditions to the west. The CPC 8-14 day outlook maintains a similar pattern, with increased chances for above-normal rainfall extending from the southeastern half of Texas through southern Mississippi. These forecasts indicate that short term drought expansion is not likely across the Mississippi Delta region, but drought may continue to slowly expand across Texas, mitigated by below-normal temperatures. The CPC MAM'19 seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the entire region. Climatologically, May is one of the wettest months of the year across Texas, as Gulf moisture begins pushing northward into the Plains. Therefore, given this increased potential for above-normal rainfall during an increasingly wet time of year, drought removal is favored for the existing D1 areas across Texas, and no new areas of development are indicated. This is a low-confidence forecast, however, due to the potential for degradations at the beginning of the period, with the subsequent anticipated improvements largely tied to the end of the forecast period where forecast confidence is lowest.  

South forecast confidence is low to moderate.

Midwest: Outside a small area of D0 in northern Minnesota, no drought or abnormal dryness is indicated on the February 19 U.S. Drought Monitor across the Midwest RCC region. A deep snowpack is currently in place over the entire northern Mississippi Valley, so as the spring melt commences, that small region of abnormal dryness is likely to vanish. The entire Midwest region has experienced abundant rainfall during the winter months, and although drier conditions are anticipated over the next couple of weeks, this dryness will likely be accompanied by cold temperatures. The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks favor above-normal precipitation across eastern and southern portions of the Midwest, respectively, and there are no areas where below-normal precipitation is anticipated. Therefore, no drought development is forecast. In fact, based on current snowpack conditions in the upper-Midwest and abundant soil moisture across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, flooding may be a larger concern during the spring months.

Midwest forecast Confidence is moderate to high

High Plains: Across the High Plains RCC states, drought conditions were limited primarily to the central Rockies and the plains of central Colorado. Abundant snowfall across the Dakotas has resulted in a deep snowpack, limiting the potential for spring drought development. Mountain snowpack conditions are favorable across most of the region, with snow water equivalent (SWE) values generally above normal across Colorado, and near normal across Wyoming. The CPC seasonal outlook favors enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation across Colorado, most of Wyoming, western Nebraska, and Kansas. Temperatures are anticipated to range below-normal early in the period, with equal chances for below-, near-, and above-normal during the MAM'19 period. The absence of a rapid warmup will help maintain the near to above-normal snowpack during the first part of the spring melting period. Based on these recent conditions and the seasonal outlook, drought reduction is favored across Colorado and Wyoming, and no further drought development is anticipated across the High Plains. 

High Plains forecast confidence is moderate.

West: The Western region continues to have the largest coverage of drought across the contiguous U.S., although substantial improvements have occurred during the past several weeks. A series of atmospheric river (AR) events, partly fueled by constructive interference between El Nino conditions and a Pacific MJO, resulted in widespread heavy rainfall and mountain snows across California. Drought conditions in California remain only near the Oregon border and a small portion of the coast near San Diego, and SWE values across the Sierra Nevada range are currently 150 to 200 percent of normal. More recently, the Pacific moisture flow has shifted northward, and widespread heavy precipitation is forecast in the short term across the Pacific Northwest. Much of this moisture has worked its way eastward, and snowpack values across the central and northern Rockies and the Great Basin are generally near to above normal. The only areas with subnormal snow cover are the Cascades in northern Oregon and Washington, and the southern Rockies. Based on the abundant snowpack conditions and short term precipitation forecasts, continued drought reduction is favored across most of the Western Region, with persistence favored along and just east of the Cascades in northern Oregon and Washington. Drought development would be most likely across the Southwest, particularly across southern New Mexico, but the CPC seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation during the MAM'19 period. Additionally, heavy precipitation is favored to continue in the short term across Arizona.

West forecast confidence is moderate.

OCONUS (AK, HI, PR): Drought conditions have persisted largely unchanged across the southeastern portion of the Alaska Panhandle. The monthly and seasonal outlooks maintain equal chances for below-, near-, and above-normal precipitation. The MAM'19 period is a relatively dry time of year for the Alaska Panhandle. Therefore, in the absence of a clear wet signal, drought persistence seems to be the most likely outcome. Across Hawaii, increased precipitation during the past couple of weeks has eroded short term drought conditions that have developed over the winter months. El Nino conditions generally favor a below-normal wet season for Hawaii, but due to the weak SST anomaly field, this signal is not anticipated to be robust. Drought persistence for existing areas is favored, but due to recent improvements, no additional development is indicated at this time. Moderate drought has persisted over southern Puerto Rico, and there has been increasing coverage of abnormal dryness. El Nino conditions are associated with suppressed convective anomalies across the Caribbean region, and that regime has dynamical model support. Therefore, drought persistence and expansion is forecast across most of Puerto Rico.  

Alaska forecast confidence is moderate, Hawaii forecast confidence is low to moderate,  and forecast confidence in Puerto Rico is moderate.

Forecaster: Adam Allgood

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 21, 2019 at 8:30AM EST