PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2018 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2018 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PART OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CONUS EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE OND 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST STATES, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM FLORIDA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. DURING THE AUTUMN AND WINTER 2018-19, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT AND ITS CORRESPONDING WEAKER IMPACTS RELATIVE TO THOSE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE OR STRONG EVENT. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS AND DECADAL TIMESCALE CLIMATE TRENDS. FOR THE REMAINING SEASONS (SPRING, SUMMER, AND EARLY AUTUMN 2019), THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON DECADAL TRENDS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE INDICATED IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. OBSERVED WEEKLY SSTS HAVE BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN FOR THE PAST 3 MONTHS. THE LATEST WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT SSTS WITHIN ONE CELSIUS DEGREE OF NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED POCKETS OF +1.0C TO +2.0C. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MOST AREAS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER, FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF 250 METERS. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST, TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 125 METERS. PERSISTENT SUBSURFACE POSITIVE HEAT ANOMALIES CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL NINO DURING AUTUMN 2018. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES INDICATED SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER MALAYSIA AND WESTERN INDONESIA, AND ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER PAPUA NEW GUINEA. LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF ENHANCED WESTERLY ANOMALIES. NEAR AVERAGE WINDS WERE ALSO OBSERVED AT UPPER-LEVELS (200-HPA), WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ENHANCED WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. OVERALL, ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER FOR THE AUTUMN 2018 AND WINTER 2018-19 OUTLOOKS, GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL NINO. MUCH OF THE RECENT WARMING IN SSTS HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, A BIT WEST OF WHERE IT TYPICALLY OCCURS. HOWEVER, THE MORE IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IS THAT THIS WARM EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. ONE OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED WEAK EL NINO IS THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES THAT STRADDLE THE EQUATOR AND RELATED DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. OF PRIMARY CONCERN HERE IS HOW FAR EAST THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. IN ADDITION, WHEN EL NINO IS WEAK, THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD THAT OTHER MODES OF VARIABILITY (SUCH AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)) WILL PLAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN CLIMATE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EL NINO IS THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO). IF A SIGNIFICANT MJO EVENT WERE TO DEVELOP DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST, IT COULD AID IN EL NINO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT MJO EVENT COULD HELP THE EL NINO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE INTENSITY. FOR THIS SUITE OF SEASONAL OUTLOOKS, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH THE PREDICTION OF A WEAK EL NINO DURING THE UPCOMING COLD SEASON IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. WHETHER OR NOT THIS PARTICULAR EL NINO FADES AWAY, OR GETS SOME HELP FROM THE MJO IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, REMAINS TO BE SEEN. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) FOR THE RECENTLY OBSERVED JJA SEASON WAS +0.1C, AND THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY VALUE IS +0.3C. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION (CON) FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION PREDICTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5 DEGREES C TO BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT BY SON, WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES PEAKING NEAR +1.0 DEGREES C DURING NDJ 2018-19. THE SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, MARKOV MODEL, AND CFS INDICATE PEAK ANOMALY VALUES AT OR ABOVE +1.0 DEGREES C THIS UPCOMING WINTER. THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST FAVORS THE ONSET OF EL NINO DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AUTUMN WITH PROBABILITIES OF EL NINO OF 65-70 PERCENT DURING NDJ AND DJF 2018-19. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE PREDICTION OF WEAK EL NINO DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS ENSO-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS AUTUMN AND WINTER WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED, FROM WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE OR STRONG WARM EVENT. THIS SUITE OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE THEREFORE BASED PRIMARILY ON A WEAK EL NINO BETWEEN OND 2018 AND MAM 2019, AND DECADAL TRENDS FOR THE ENSUING LEADS (AMJ TO OND 2019). TOOLS USED FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS INCLUDED DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME), THE SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), AND A HYBRID STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE CCA/CA/ENSO-OCN/NMME (FINAL-CON) OUT THROUGH LEAD 5 (FMA 2019). FOR LEADS 6-13 (MAM THROUGH OND 2019), DECADAL CLIMATE TRENDS WERE PRIMARILY USED, AND A STATISTICAL CON (STAT-CON) WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE FINAL-CON, BUT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE NMME. A RELATIVELY NEW TOOL IN THE CPC SUITE IS THE CBAM, OR CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING FORECAST TOOL. THIS USES A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE NMME MODEL CALIBRATION AND CONSOLIDATION, AS WELL AS A HYBRID STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL FORECAST, IN WHICH NMME CONSTITUENT-MODEL NINO 3.4 FORECASTS ARE STATISTICALLY BRIDGED TO PREDICTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION USING A BAYESIAN MODEL. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - OND 2018 TO OND 2019 TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA DURING OND 2018, WITH EC INDICATED OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CONUS EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY THE FINAL-CON, ESPECIALLY ITS NMME, OCN, AND ENSO CONSTITUENTS. CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT ALSO COMES FROM THE IMME, THE CFS, AND THE OLDER LEGACY CON TOOL. THE BROAD REGION OF LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (33%-40%) ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A FAIRLY COOL OCTOBER. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BUILDUP OF COLDER AIR ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, WHICH APPEARS POISED TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION, AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OR TWO OF OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE PREDICTED DURATION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE; WHETHER IT REMAINS PERSISTENT, OR ENDS UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IN ALASKA, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY RELATIVELY WARM SSTS (WESTERN ALASKA), AND BY RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN THE ONSET OF ICE COVER (NORTHERN ALASKA). FOR LEADS 2-6 (NDJ 2018-19 THROUGH MAM 2019), THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE PREMISE OF A WEAK EL NINO, AND CONSIDERATION OF A WIDE ARRAY OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS (NOTED EARLIER). THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED WAXING AND WANING OF EC COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH REPRESENTS THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY DURING THESE SEASONAL LEADS. DURING THESE SAME SEASONS, THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECLINE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING NDJ AND DJF, BEFORE FAVORING EC IN JFM AND FMA 2019. THE PREDICTED SPATIAL EXTENT OF EC DIMINISHES ACROSS THIS AREA IN MAM 2019. THE CALIBRATED NMME, THE FINAL-CON, AND THE LEGACY CON, SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF NON-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES, MEANING EITHER EC OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EL NINO INTENSITY DURING THE AUTUMN AND WINTER, IT WAS DECIDED AT THIS TIME TO FAVOR EC OVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS PREDICTED WARM EVENT MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MOST NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY PROJECTIONS INDICATE. THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR LEADS 7-13 (AMJ THROUGH OND 2019) ARE BASED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS, WHICH FAVOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES WHERE EC IS FAVORED FOR LEADS 8-11 (MJJ THROUGH ASO 2019), AND THE SOUTHEAST FOR LEADS 12-13 (SON AND OND 2019). MOST OF ALASKA IS ALSO FAVORED BY DECADAL TRENDS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEADS 12 AND 13 (SON AND OND 2019) WHEN EC IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION FOR OND 2018, THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST STATES, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM FLORIDA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND WESTERN ARIZONA HAVE TWO OPPORTUNITIES TO REACH THE UPPER TERCILE FOR SEASONAL PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY IS FAVORED TO BE IN OCTOBER, WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS STILL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN COASTS, AND THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ATTENDANT GULF SURGES TO FOCUS MOISTURE INTO THAT REGION OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY IS FAVORED LATE IN THE OND SEASON, WITH INCREASING ODDS OF EL NINO. THE FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A WEAK EL NINO THIS COLD SEASON. THE PREDICTED NORTHWARD EXTENSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS LARGELY DUE TO HISTORICAL TRENDS. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORED IN ALASKA, WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE SST-CA (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG ON SSTS) TOOL, THE CFS, THE EXPERIMENTAL CBAM, THE FINAL-CON, AND THE IMME (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF ALASKA). RELATIVELY WARM SSTS OFF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. THE DELAYED ONSET OF ICE COVER OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN/BEAUFORT SEA REGION IN THE PAST FEW DECADES ALSO LENDS SOME SUPPORT FOR FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH SLOPE REGION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST, PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL MONTANA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS INDICATED BY SUCH TOOLS AS THE NMME, IMME, SST-CA, AND CBAM TO VARIOUS DEGREES. IN ADDITION, DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS USUALLY BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING EL NINO. FOR LEADS 2 AND 3 (NDJ AND DJF 2018-19), THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FAVOR THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO THE PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL NINO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EL NINO AT THIS TIME, THE 50%-60% PROBABILITY REGIONS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS OF THE CONUS FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE FAVORED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THESE TWO SEASONS. THE ALASKA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR NDJ AND DJF 2018-19 ARE BASED PRIMARILY BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR LEADS 4-6 (JFM THROUGH MAM 2019), THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO WORK OFF THE PREMISE OF A WEAK EL NINO EVENT. THIS UNDERLYING PREMISE, ALONG WITH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHERN STORM TRACK, A PERIOD OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE REMOVAL OF THE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS INDICATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. JFM AND FMA 2019 ALSO FAVOR THE INTRODUCTION OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR SUBSEQUENT LEADS 7-13 (AMJ THROUGH OND 2019) ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BASED ON DECADAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE CORRESPONDING PREVIOUS SET OF OUTLOOKS, WITH NO NEW INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS TO WHICH DIRECTION THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE RELIABLY TILTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WESTERN ALASKA FOR LEADS 12 AND 13 (SON AND OND 2019) WHERE OPEN WATER LATER INTO THE AUTUMN SEASON IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE. FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM L (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON OCT 18 2018 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 FORECAST RELEASE. $$