Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during
the next 3-6 months.
By early September, equatorial SSTs were near average in most areas
between 180°W and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niņo 3, Niņo 3.4, and Niņo 1+2 regions were near
zero, while positive departures (+0.4°C) persisted in the Niņo 4 region
(Fig. 2). The general decrease in surface and subsurface
temperature anomalies, observed during the last three months, has been accompanied by stronger-than-average easterly winds
(Fig. 3)
and near-average convection over the central equatorial Pacific.
The large spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niņa to weak El Niņo) indicates considerable
uncertainty (Fig. 4). However, current conditions and recent observed trends support a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for
the next 3-6 months.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for
SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate
Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 October 2005. To receive
an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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