Forecast Forum

The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFSv2) are presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.  Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7 and F8.  Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F9.  Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F10, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch

 

Outlook: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).

 

Discussion:

 

During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18), with the monthly Nino-1+2 value at +0.3C (Table T2). Monthly SST index values in the other Nino regions were between +0.9C and +1.2C. Below-average subsurface temperatures strengthened, reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave (Fig. T17). Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly near average (Figs. T20 & T21). Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around the Date Line and was near average around Indonesia (Fig. T25). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Nino.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Nina potentially developing during late summer 2024 (Figs. F1-F12). The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Nina tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Nina. In summary, a transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Nina developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).